The Economics of Transit and Peering Interconnections in the ...
The Internet is Flat: Modeling the Transition from a Transit Hierarchy to a Peering Mesh Amogh Dhamdhere (CAIDA/UCSD) Constantine Dovrolis (Georgia Tech) 02/24/2020 1 The Internet Ecosystem More than 30,000 autonomous networks independently operated and managed The Internet Ecosystem Different types of networks Interact with each other and with environment Network interactions Localized, in the form of bilateral contracts
Customer-provider or settlement-free peering Distributed optimizations by each network 02/24/2020 The Internet is Flat CoNEXT 2010 2 Economics of the Internet Ecosystem Traffic growth Source: Cisco Transit price decline Source: William Norton Ad revenue increase Source: IAB Content Consolidation
Source: Arbor Networks 02/24/2020 The Internet is Flat CoNEXT 2010 3 Recent Trends: Arbor Networks Study The Old Internet (late The New Internet 90s 2007) (2007 onwards) Top content providers Top content providers How dosmall the old and generate new Internet generated large differofintotal terms
of topology, traffic flow, fraction traffic fraction of total traffic Content and economics? providers Content providers are were mostly local present everywhere Peering was restrictive Peering is more open Internet Interdomain Traffic, Labovitz et al., Sigcomm 2010 02/24/2020 The Internet is Flat CoNEXT 2010
4 Previous Work Descriptive Match graph properties e.g. degree distribution Homogeneity Model the actions of individual networks Heterogeneity Nodes and links all the same Game theoretic,
analytical Networks with different incentives, link types Computational Restrictive assumptions Little relation to realworld data 02/24/2020 Bottom-up As much realism as possible Parameterize/validate using real data
The Internet is Flat CoNEXT 2010 5 The ITER Model Agent-based computational model to answer what-if questions about Internet evolution Inputs
Network types based on business function Pricing/cost parameters Interdomain traffic matrix Geographical constraints Peer/provider selection methods Output: Equilibrium internetwork topology, traffic flow, per-network fitness 02/24/2020 The Internet is Flat CoNEXT 2010 6 ITER: Model Components Enterprise Customers (EC) e.g., Georgia Tech
Small (regional) Transit Providers (STP) e.g., France Telecom Large (tier-1) Transit Providers (LTP) e.g., AT&T Content Providers (CP) e.g., Google Transit, peering and operational costs based on data from NANOG and network operators Traffic matrix based on studies of content popularity, Arbor study, measurements at GT Geographical presence modeled as presence at IXPs 02/24/2020 The Internet is Flat CoNEXT 2010 7 ITER: Provider and Peer Selection Provider selection Choose providers based on customer cone size
Measure of the size of a provider Used by commercial products, e.g., Renesys Peer selection Peer if ratio of total traffic handled is less than Approximates the equality of two ISPs 02/24/2020 The Internet is Flat CoNEXT 2010 8 The ITER approach Interdomain TM Interdomain topology
Analytically Equilibrium:intractable! no networkFind has equilibrium the incentive to computationally, using agent-based simulations change its providers/peers 02/24/2020 The Internet is Flat CoNEXT 2010 9 Properties of the equilibrium
Is an equilibrium reached? Yes, in most cases Is the equilibrium unique? No, can depend on playing sequence Multiple runs with different playing sequence Per-network properties vary widely across runs Macroscopic properties show low variability 02/24/2020 The Internet is Flat CoNEXT 2010 10 ITER: Simulating the old and new Internet Same initial topology: constructed with a fullmesh of LTP peering links, preferential attachment to connect ECs and CPs
Change three parameters Fraction of traffic sourced by CPs (10% vs. 60%) Geographical spread of CPs (one region vs. all regions) Peering traffic threshold (=1 vs. =10) 50 simulation runs for each instance, average results across runs 02/24/2020 The Internet is Flat CoNEXT 2010 11 ITER Sims: End-to-end Paths End-to-end paths weighted by traffic are shorter in the new Internet Paths carrying the
most traffic are Weighted AS shorter path lengths AS path lengths 02/24/2020 The Internet is Flat CoNEXT 2010 12 ITER Sims: Traffic Transiting Transit Providers Traffic bypasses transit Traffic providers transiting
More traffic flows directly LTPs on peering links Implication: Transit Traffic providers lose money! transiting STPs Content providers get richer 02/24/2020 The Internet is Flat CoNEXT 2010 13 ITER Sims: Traffic Over Unprofitable Providers Traffic transiting
unprofitable providers 02/24/2020 More transit providers are unprofitable in the new Internet These unprofitable providers still have to carry traffic! Possibility of mergers, bankruptcies or acquisitions The Internet is Flat CoNEXT 2010 14
ITER Sims: Peering in the New Internet Transit providers need to peer strategically in the new Internet STPs peering with CPs: saves transit costs LTPs peering with CPs: attracts traffic that would have bypassed them 02/24/2020 The Internet is Flat CoNEXT 2010 15 Three Factors Weighted path
length Traffic transiting STPs Vary One factor only one by itself of the cannot change(fraction output three factors of CP traffic) metrics to the values in the new
Values in Internet the All three factors need to new Internet change to three see the when all differences the parametersbetween are old and new Internet changed
Traffic transiting LTPs 02/24/2020 The Internet is Flat CoNEXT 2010 16 Summary ITER: A computational, agent-based model of interdomain network formation Captures the interactions between topology, routing, economics and interdomain traffic flow Compared old and new Internet in terms of topology, traffic flow, per-network profitability
02/24/2020 The Internet is Flat CoNEXT 2010 17 Thanks! Questions? [email protected] www.caida.org/~amogh We gratefully acknowledge funding from the NSF and Cisco Systems 02/24/2020 The Internet is Flat CoNEXT 2010 18
Backup slides 02/24/2020 The Internet is Flat CoNEXT 2010 19 Dependence on Initial Conditions LTPs that are profitable eventually are also profitable initially in both old and new Internet Old Internet: 75% of the eventually fit STPs are fit in the initial topology New Internet: 50% of the eventually fit STPs are fit in the initial topology STPs that transition from unprofitable to profitable in the new Internet: peer strategically with large CPs 02/24/2020
The Internet is Flat CoNEXT 2010 20 Economics of the Internet Ecosystem How do we make sense of all this? 02/24/2020 The Internet is Flat CoNEXT 2010 21 Economically-principled models Objective: Understand the structure and dynamics of the Internet ecosystem from an economic perspective Capture interactions between interdomain
topology, routing, economics, and resulting interdomain traffic flow Create a scientific basis for modeling Internet interconnection and dynamics based on empirical data 02/24/2020 The Internet is Flat CoNEXT 2010 22 High Level Questions How does the Internet ecosystem evolve? What is the Internet heading towards? Topology Economics Performance Which interconnection strategies of networks
optimize their profits, costs and performance? How do these strategies affect the global Internet? 02/24/2020 The Internet is Flat CoNEXT 2010 23 Why Study Equilibria? The Internet is never at equilibrium, right? Networks come and go, traffic patterns change, pricing/cost structures change, etc. Studying equilibria tells us whats the best that networks could do under certain traffic/economic conditions, and what that means for the Internet as a whole If those conditions change, we need to re-compute
equilibria 02/24/2020 The Internet is Flat CoNEXT 2010 24 ITER: Network Types Enterprise Customers (EC) Stub networks at the edge, e.g. Georgia Tech Transit Providers Provide Internet transit Regional in scope (STP), e.g. Comcast Tier-1 or global (LTP), e.g., AT&T Content Providers (CP) Major sources of content, e.g. Google
02/24/2020 The Internet is Flat CoNEXT 2010 25 Network actions Networks perform their actions sequentially Can observe the actions of previous networks And the effects of those actions on traffic flow and economics Network actions in each move Pick set of preferred providers Evaluate each existing peering link Try to create new peering links 02/24/2020
The Internet is Flat CoNEXT 2010 26 Computing Equilibrium Situation where no network has the incentive to change its connectivity Too complex to find analytically: Solve computationally Computation Proceeds iteratively, networks play in sequence Compute routing, traffic flow, AS fitness Repeat until no player has incentive to move 02/24/2020 The Internet is Flat CoNEXT 2010 27
Validation Validation of a model that involves traffic, topology, economics and network actions is hard! Best-effort parameterization and validation Parameterized transit, peering and operational costs, traffic matrix properties, geographical spread using best available data 02/24/2020 The Internet is Flat CoNEXT 2010 28 Validation ITER produces
networks with heavytailed degree distribution 02/24/2020 The Internet is Flat CoNEXT 2010 29 Validation ITER produces networks with a heavytailed distribution of link loads 02/24/2020 The Internet is Flat CoNEXT 2010 30
Validation Average path lengths stay almost constant as the network size is increased 02/24/2020 The Internet is Flat CoNEXT 2010 31 STPs Peering with CPs LTP LTP $$ CP
CP $$ STP STP Peering with CPs saves transit costs for STPs 02/24/2020 The Internet is Flat CoNEXT 2010 32 LTPs Peering with CPs LTP LTP CP CP
$$ CP CP STP STP Peering with CPs attracts traffic (revenue) for LTPs 02/24/2020 The Internet is Flat CoNEXT 2010 33 What-if scenario: A super-CP What if a single CP sources a large fraction of the total traffic? ITER sims: STPs see higher fitness, LTPs
see lower fitness For STPs: lower peering costs, larger transit savings by peering with a single CP For LTPs: lower peering costs, but more traffic bypasses them 02/24/2020 The Internet is Flat CoNEXT 2010 34 Peering Policies What peering policies do networks use? How does this depend on network type? Do they peer at IXPs? How many IXPs are they present at? PeeringDB: Public database where ISPs volunteer information about business type, traffic volumes, peering policies
Collecting peeringDB snapshots periodically Goal is to study how peering policies evolve 02/24/2020 The Internet is Flat CoNEXT 2010 35 peeringDB 02/24/2020 The Internet is Flat CoNEXT 2010 36
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