Rudds Foreign Policy Andrew Carr and Chris Roberts
Rudds Foreign Policy Andrew Carr and Chris Roberts Todays presentation Administration and Centralisation Middle Power Activism Relations with the world The fall and rise of Rudd Centralisation and burden Centralisation of office Appoint National Security Advisor Duncan Lewis Personal Envoys on key topics Garnaut (Climate), Woolcott (APC) Centralisation not a new trend, but strongly reinforced by Rudd Big workflow problems Issues raised & dropped suddenly. Or sit idle as PM is distracted. Loved ideas and details, not so much decision making and administration.
The lone ranger Little help/engagement Rudd his own uber foreign minister. Stephen Smith as Foreign Min, Joel Fitzgibbon as Defence Minister Strained relations with DFAT Excluded & underfunded. Opposition AWOL on International Affairs. 3 leaders, 3 shadow foreign affairs ministers. No attention Australias foreign policy during the Rudd government was utterly driven by the strengths, and weaknesses of Kevin Michael Rudd Middle Power Activism Strong vision of activist middle power nation: [Australia] which seeks to take Chifleys vision of a light on the hill into an uncertain century. This is an enlarging vision that sees Australia taking the lead on global climate changeon the Millennium Development GoalsThis is an Australia that becomes a leader, not a follower, in the redesign of
the rules of the international order (Rudd 2006 Faith in Politics) G-20 A notable success, due in large part to Rudds personal activism. Rudd thinks if he can be in the room, a deal can be worked out. Middle power Activism #2 Lots of ideas, but little implementation. ICNND Good start, then forgotten. Climate Change Excluded from Copenhagen, abandoned at home. Whaling Needless antagonism of Japan UN Security Council seat Still going, late, difficult run. Didnt learn lessons of Evans era careful identification of opportunities for action, sufficient physical capacity to follow issues through, including the energy and stamina to ensure that good ideas did not fall by the wayside, intellectual imagination and creativity, and credibility through independence and consistency
Rudds Vision for an Asia Pacific Community An Asia Pacific wide institution Engage and cooperate in economic, political and security matters Develop a genuine and comprehensive sense of community whose default instinct is to cooperate Challenges to Rudds APC Richard Woolcotts appointment Problems Outcome of consultations: interest but no implementation Institutional design A regional debate or an attempted fait accompli? Repeated references to the EU Calls for details (ambiguity)
Challenges to Rudds APC Issue of membership and leadership Nexus between capacity and a noodle bowl of regional institutions ASEAN, APEC, ASEAN Plus Three, SAARC, SCO, Shangri-La dialogue, EAS Number of meetings in ASEAN Language Method of delivery Singapore: dead in the water. The challenge of building a community The challenge of building a community 100.0% 100.0% 80.0%
80.0% Are there any circumstances 14% 17% 14% 17%where you could envisage armed 20% 20% conflicts between two or more ASEAN states during the course 53% 53% of the next twenty years? 67% 67% 60.0%
42% 47% 29% 29% 25% 20% 21% 20% 21% 14% 13% 13% Brunei Laos Brunei Malaysia Laos Philippines Malaysia
P Thailand hilippines Thailand Myanmar Indonesia Myanmar Vietnam Indonesia Cam Vietnam bodia Singapore Cambodia Singapore Strategic Allies by Overall Rank Country Rank 1 Rank 2
Rank 3 Singapore United States Indonesia Australia Malaysia Indonesia Brunei Thailand Indonesia United States
Malaysia Japan The Philippines Indonesia United States Singapore Thailand Singapore Malaysia United States Cambodia Malaysia
Singapore China Myanmar * Laos Malaysia Thailand Laos Vietnam China Cambodia Brunei *
Malaysia Singapore Indonesia Vietnam Laos China Singapore Bilateral Relations Indonesia Early resentments Largely on track India Uranium Indian student assaults
Japan The whaling issue Relations with China China 2008 lecture at a Chinese university Rudds honours thesis: Wei Jingsheng 2009 Defence White Paper Reference to China Government: amazed and displeased Other Chinese sources: crazy, stupid and dangerous Cancellation of $19.5 billion acquisition Relations with the US Ideological differences with Bush Ideological convergence with Obama Obama praised Rudd as somebody who I probably share as much of a world view as
any leader out there Implications of Obamas prioritisation of Afghanistan 40% increase in military deployment Cancelled visits little impact The fall and rise of Rudd Dumped but restored to Foreign Ministry post election. No evidence Rudd has learnt lessons from time. However: While PM Big area, small dept. While FM Smaller area, larger dept. Gillard showing focus on economics/fundamentals in FP. Balance w/ Gillards details & Rudds creativity could work well If they can fix personal relationship.
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