Outdoor Recreation Data, Trends & ProjectionsPlanning for the

Outdoor Recreation Data, Trends & ProjectionsPlanning for the

Outdoor Recreation Data, Trends & ProjectionsPlanning for the Future Ken Cordell, US Forest Service R&D (Southern Research Station, Athens GA) & Gary Green, Warnell School (UGA) Other authors: Stan Zarnoch (USFS), Mike Bowker (USFS), John Bergstrom (UGA), Mark Fly & Susan Schexnayder (UTK), & Vahe Heboyan (UGA) Other Partners---OF, FWS, PSW, Wild Found., TPL, PNW, RMRS, . t s r But fi An Application of the NARRP Planning Principles Jekyll Island is a state park managed by an Authority Initiated conservation planning through consultant in 2010 But, no one outside the Authority or its consultant was allowed to see, or help with it Public comment was invited in Nov./Dec. of 2010, but, no document provided for review, only a short PP presentation In Feb., a draft was released & public comment poured in (JISP is a favorite destination for Georgians +) NARRP principles used as a framework for my critique

NARRP Principles Brought Structure to my Critique. Kudos NARRP! Synopsis--- it is clear that Jekyll Island State Park management through its JISP Authority needs to make a commitment to recreation management that takes into account both protection of the conditions of the natural resources of the island & of recreation experiential conditions. To make such a commitment, implementation of state-of-the-art planning principles in visualizing & analytically comparing alternative management futures, including visitor capacity analysis, is needed. Planning that omits any alternatives & presents no costbenefit comparisons could lead to decisions that are based on predisposition, bias, inadequate analysis, group-think, insular perspectives, & resistance to change. The planning process thus far has not been open & inclusive of all parties. It is highly recommended that all future planning be comprehensive (not compartmentalized) & be publicly inclusive & open. Forest Service RPA Regions of the U. S. Presentation is based on the Forest Service 2010 RPA National Assessment & is original research Groups data & published research for the 2010 Assessment include:

Recreation Demand Trends & Futures in the U.S. to 2060 Recreation & Protected Land Resource Trends & Futures Natural Amenity Effects on Future Population Migration U.S. & County Population Projections to 2060 The Framework Applying NSRE & RPA in Recreation Planning? Consider the notion of creating a process for accessing NSRE & RPA recreation publications, data, & forecasts for planning (e.g., SCORP) What would a Framework for NSRE/RPA Applications look like? What would an effectively designed system for easy access to data & trends look like? Are there projects about to be launched that could provide beta testing? This Presentation is about Trends & Data Under the Analysis The data--- NSRE , RPA & other sources The Trends

Population & demographics How demographic change affects OR participation Outdoor recreation participation trends Kids time outdoors (source, National Kids Survey) Forecasts of future outdoor recreation demand Natural amenities, current & forecast The draw of natural amenities & forecast of rural population growth Trends---Population & Demographic Change What is happening with population growth & are there increasing concentrations in some places (persons per square mile)? How is the age distribution of the U.S. population changing? How has the race/ethnic makeup of the U.S. population been changing over the last 20 years? RPA is unique in that it Tracks Trends and Forecasts Futures Total population Population

Percent of National Northeast North Central 63,245.9 61,122.0 20.8 20.1 North Total 124,368.0 40.9 Southeast South Central 49,485.4 53,320.2 16.3 17.5 South Total

102,805.6 33.8 Great Plains Intermountain 6,031.2 21,729.6 2.0 7.1 27,760.9 9.1 683.2 10,339.3 38,044.9 0.2 3.4 12.5 49,067.4

16.1 Region & Sub-Region Rocky Mountains Total Alaska Pacific Northwest Pacific Southwest Pacific Coast Total Persons per Square Mile (current) Population Growth by County Since 1990 Colorado's population grew by almost 17 percent between 2000 & 2010, an increase that moved COs population to more than 5 million (Bureau of Census) 2008 Population by Region & Age Group with Percent Change Since 1990 (Population is in 1,000s) Age Group Under 6 Rocky Mountains 2,555.8

% change United States 37.7 25,082.3 % change 12.0 Age 6-10 1,941.7 24.1 19,897.3 10.2 Age 11-15 1,897.9 34.5 20,346.1

21.5 Age 16-24 3,544.3 41.8 38,373.4 13.8 Age 25-34 3,965.7 22.7 40,931.6 -5.2 Age 35-44 3,679.9 28.7

42,501.1 13.5 Age 44-54 3,861.1 44,372.1 Age 55-64 2,989.5 111.2 96.1 33,686.2 77.0 59.5 Age 65+ 3,379.6 48.6

38,869.7 25.0 27,815.7 46.0 304,059 22.2 Total Current Population by Region & Race/ethnicity with Percent Change Since 1990 (population is in 1,000s) Rocky Mountains 19,479.6 % change 25.3 United States 199,491.5

African American 952.9 69.4 37,171.8 26.8 American Indian 768.9 38.3 2,329.0 29.6 Asian or Pacific Islander 690.5 171.1 13,672.3

95.4 Hispanic 5,497.2 157.8 46,943.6 109.8 U. S. All Races 27,815.7 46.0 304,059.7 22.2 2 or more races 426.6 .

4,451.7 . Race/ Ethnicity White % change 5.9 Percent Change in Hispanic Population Since 1990 The Hispanic population grew by 40 percent in Colorado over the last 10 years Population & Demographic Change Growth (population per square mile) has occurred almost everywhere, especially Northeast coast, Southern Appalachians, Atlanta, Chicago, Denver, Salt Lake City, Southwest, Portland & Seattle Fastest growing age has been ages 44-54 & 55-64, with next fastest being 65 or older. Decline in age group 25-34 Growing especially fast is the Hispanic population in the Southeastern states, states bordering the Mississippi River, upper Mid-West, Arizona, Utah, Wyoming, coastal Oregon & Washington, & Idaho

Changing population & its demographics have affected outdoor recreation trends How Demographic Change Can Affect Outdoor Recreation Participation? (Our Current Research) Models developed for forecasting for 2010 RPA Native American (pos) Black (neg) Asian (neg) Hisp (neg) except for Day Hiking White (generally pos) Educ (neg) consumptive & motor activities Educ (pos) nonconsumptive Income (pos) most activities Gender (pos) boys still play more outside Population density (neg) crowding or urban effect? Resource availability (positive) Land, forests, open space, water, etc. Bowker, et al, RPA in press NSRE FS UT UGA NOAA National RDD survey

Started 1960 Continuous since 1999 Last birthday 140,000+ Surveys contain: Core modules (recreation & demographics) 2-3 others modules Data is weighted (using Census) National, regional, state & within state strata SCORPs Consistent methodology & questions 22 state reports completed Use NSRE as core demand data Ability to examine trends Spatially (national to within state) Temporally (between different years) Add modules/questions to NSRE Specific to a state Relate state results to RPA findings Create state surveys to correlate with NSRE Outdoor Recreation

Participation Trends Is use of public land up, down? How do peoples choices for outdoor recreation compare with previous generations, & is there an overriding trend What is the general trend for nature-based recreation, is it growth? Have any traditional activities shown decline (e.g., hunting). If nature-based outdoor recreation is growing, are there activities & interests that stand out? Outdoor Recreation Participation Trends Primary source---NSRE Visitation to public lands Overall trends in OR & nature based recreation Fastest growing & declining Trends in the first decade of the 21st Century Kids time outdoors & upcoming national study Visitation to Public Lands? Federal Lands (3 UP, 1 Steady, 1 Down) Year 1996

2000 2004 2008 2009 NPS 266 286 277 275 286 F&WS BLM USFS 30 57 ----372 37 54 --------40 54 205 359 41 57 176 357 43 57 174 370 Corps

Visitation to public lands? State Park Systems/ Rocky Mountain Region 1992 49.0 1995 58.9 2000 58.9 2005 62.9 2009 64.3 Other regions have seen some declines. 208 200 61 +7.5% +32.5% 150 2000 224 81 80 60

Billions of days Millions who participate General Outdoor Recreation Demand Growth by People 16+ (number of people & annual participation days), 20002009. 250 100 40 2009 Year Number Who Participate (million) Number of Activity Days (billion) Source: National Survey on Recreation & the Environment (NSRE) 250 196 200 37 150 60 52 210

+7.1% +40.1% 40 40.1 vs. 32.5 100 2000 20 2009 Year Number Who Participate (million) Number of Activity Days (billion) Billions of days M illions w ho participate Nature-based Outdoor Recreation Growth (number of people & annual participation days, 20002009 Activity Walk for pleasure Gathering of family/friends Gardening/landscaping for

pleasure View natural scenery Visit outdoor nature center/zoo Sightseeing Picnicking View wildflowers/trees Driving for pleasure View wildlife besides birds/fish Visit historic sites/monuments Visit a beach Swimming in lakes, streams, etc. Bicycling View or photograph birds Day hiking Visit a wilderness Gather mushrooms/berries Visit farm or agricultural setting View salt/freshwater fish Developed camping Warmwater fishing Motorboating 1994-1995 1999- 2001 .. 128.2

-- 175.6 157.6 140.8 -110.9 117.5 112.1 --62.8 91.6 128.8 87.4 77.8 54.3 53.5 ---27.6 46.5 49.3 59.5 127.1 121.0 109.0 118.3 93.8 107.9 94.2

96.1 84.4 85.5 81.9 68.5 69.1 67.2 60.0 58.6 52.3 55.3 47.6 50.7 2005-2009 200.0 174.2 157.9 149.8 133.3 123.9 121.6 121.3 120.5 118.1 103.9 102.0

97.5 88.3 84.1 79.7 79.1 77.2 75.3 63.5 56.0 55.7 55.0 Percent Percent Participating change 19992005-2009 2009 85.0 74.0 67.1 13.9 10.5 12.1 63.7 56.6 52.7

51.7 51.6 51.2 50.2 44.1 43.3 41.5 37.5 35.7 33.9 33.6 32.8 32.0 27.0 23.8 23.7 23.4 17.9 10.2 13.7 2.8 29.4 11.6 25.4 8.1 20.7 14.0

7.8 22.8 15.4 17.7 28.6 28.6 21.4 1.1 17.1 8.6 Four of the Top Five Fastest Growing Activities Between 1999-2001 & 2005-09 were Nature Based View wildflowers/trees Activity Visit farm or agricultural setting Participants per year Gather mushrooms/berries View wildlife besides birds and fish View or photograph birds

P41+ 1999-20010 Total20 participants 40 60 (millions) 80 100 2005-2009Participants Total participants (millions) 120 140 Millions Fishing Participation: 1996 to 2006 (population 16 years of age or older, numbers in millions) 36 35 34 33 32 31 30 29 28 27

1996 Source: U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service 2001 Year 2006 Declining Hunting Participation 1996-2006 (population 16 years of age or older, numbers in millions) 14.5 Declining Millions 14.0 13.5 13.0 12.5 12.0 11.5

1996 Source: U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service 2001 Year 2006 Millions Wildlife Watching 1996-2006 (population 16 years or older, numbers in millions) 72 70 68 66 64 62 60 58 1996 2001 2006

Year Source: U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Wildlife Watching in 2006 (population 16 years of age or older, numbers in millions) Away from home Around the home Total 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Millions Source: U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Millions Trend for Four Activities Illustrate Changing Outdoor Recreation Choices Shows Changing Activity Mix 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2

0 K a y a n ki g Sn b w o r oa n di g Sn

ob m w o n i li g ro C s u o c s- r nt Activity 1994-1995 1999-2001

2005-2009 y sk i in g Indexed Moving Average of Total Activity Days for Activities Associated with Visiting Recreation or Historic Sites 2000 to 2008 Moving average index 1 Recent Trends in Days, a better indicator of demand trend 0.5 0 -0.5 Zero means no change relative to 2000 In 2006, real personal income declined

-1 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Year Developed camping Picnicking Visit historic sites Family gathering Visit a beach Visit prehistoric/archeological sites 2008

Indexed Moving Average of Total Activity Days for Motorized Activities for 2000 to 2008 Moving average index 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Motorboating Snowmobiling Year Off-highway vehicle driving Use personal watercraft Indexed Moving Average of Total Activity Days for Hunting & Fishing Activities for 2000 to 2008 Moving average index 1 0.5 0

-0.5 Zero means no change relative to 2000 -1 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Year Anadromous fishing Big game hunting Coldwater fishing

Migratory bird hunting Saltwater fishing Small Game hunting Warmwater fishing 2008 Indexed Moving Average of Total Activity Days for Non-motorized Boating Activities for 2000 to 2008 Moving average index 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 2000 2001

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Year Canoeing Kayaking Rafting Rowing 2008 Indexed Moving Average of Total Activity Days for Snow Skiing & Boarding Activities for 2000 to 2008 Moving average index

1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Year Cross country skiing Downhill skiing Snowboarding Indexed Moving Average of Total Activity Days for Backcountry Activities 2000 to 2008 Moving average index 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Year Backpacking Day hiking Horseback riding on trails

Indexed Moving Average of Total Activity Days for Viewing & Photographing Nature Activities for 2000 to 2008 Moving average index 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Year 2005 2006 View/photograph birds View/photograph natural scenery View/photograph other wildlife View/photograph wildflowers, trees, etc.

2007 2008 Indexed Moving Average of Total Activity Days for 7 Composites of Nature-based Activities for 2000 to 2008 Moving average index 1 Inexpensive 0.5 0 Expensive -0.5 -1 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Year Visit Recreation And Historic Sites Backcountry Activities Hunting And Fishing Snow Skiing And Boarding

Viewing/Photographing Nature Motorized Activities Non-Motor Boating Moving average index 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Year Visit Recreation And Historic Sites Viewing/Photographing Nature Backcountry Activities Motorized Activities Hunting And Fishing Boise National Forest Archives Motorized activities, along with hunting, fishing, & backcountry activities, approx same level as 2000 2007 2008 Non-motor boating & visiting

recreation & historic sites grew modestly Various forms of skiing, including snowboarding, declined Clear leader was the overall group of activities named viewing & photographing nature Different Segments Chose Different Outdoor Activities Visiting recreation or historic sites higher among nonHispanic Whites, late teenagers, middle-aged people, people with college, higher income people, & foreign born Viewing & photographing nature higher among higher education, higher incomes, non-Hispanic Whites, people 35 to 54, with college, & earning more than $50,000 Backcountry activities highest among males, Whites, Native Americans, people under 55, well-educated, higher incomes, & rural residents Hunting, fishing & motorized outdoor activities was higher among rural, non-Hispanic White males, middle-to-high incomes Non-motorized boating activities & skiing/snowboarding participation tended to be greater for younger, non-Hispanic White urban males with higher incomes & education levels Keeping Numbers in Perspective (NSRE) Total Annual Days (millions)

14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 V rm a tf isi o ra ra tl u icu r g g

tt in e ls V iew w w lo f ild s ee r s/t r e V iew n

a ur t a V ry e n ce s l iew w e lif d il sb e sid e b

s ird & O h fis ig h ff hw ay cle i h ve ng i iv dr

Activity 1999-2001 2005-2009 Viewing natural scenery attracts 12 to 13 times the number of participation days as does OHV driving ( Do Kids Spend Time Outdoors? National Kids Survey What does research show about kids being & spending time outdoors? Is there a trend? What activities do youth prefer & participate in? What research is needed to help understand kids outdoors, & kids & nature? National Kids Survey Results

Amount of time /day outside Weekday % Weekend % None2.3 3.8 Less than 1/2 hour a day 4.2 2.2 About 1/2 hour a day 8.1 3.5 About 1 hour 23.0 13.3 2-3 hours 33.9 27.4 4 or more hours 28.5 49.8 Source: National Kids Survey, NSRE 2007-2011. N=1,945. Youth Time Trend on Typical Weekdays & Weekend Days During the Past Week by Interview Time Period Consistent results across three identical national Weekday %

Weekend Day % surveys. Results in refereed journal--JPRA. September August May '09 September August May '09 Results presented at '07 '08 to '07 '08 to three conferences this to to February to to February year. Amount of time July '08 April '09 '11 July '08 April '09 '11 None 4.5 1.2 1.8 6.1 3.2

2.8 Less than 1/2 hour a day 5.2 4.3 3.3 1.9 2.3 2.2 About 1/2 hour a day 9.1 8.2 7.3 3.9 4.3

2.3 About 1 hour 18.5 26.4 23.0 12.7 11.7 15.3 2-3 hours 32.8 30.5 38.0 27.6 27.6

27.1 4 or more hours 29.9 29.5 26.6 47.7 50.8 50.3 Amount of Time Spent Outdoors by Youth on a Typical WEEKEND DAY During the Past Week, by Age & Gender Time Age 6-9 % Male % %

Age 10-12 Female Male % % % % Age 13-15 Female Male % < 1/2 hour 4.9 3.4 3.0 8.5 1.6 5.3 7.9 11.7 to 1 hour 12.512.412.815.112.020.025.023.9 2-3 hours 27.030.924.526.331.432.018.431.0 4 + hours 55.653.3 59.7 Age 16-19 Female Male

Female 50.0 55.0 42.8 48.7 33.4 Outdoor Activities Percent of Kids 6 - 19 Participating in Outdoor Activities During Past Week (N=1,450) Part. Gender (%) Diff? Age Diff? Just playing or hanging out 84.0 ^6-9, 10-12 Biking, jogging, walking, skate boarding, etc. 79.9 ^6-9,

10-12 ^H Listen to music, watch movies, or use e-devices 65.3 ^16-19, 13-15 ^B, H Playing or practicing team sports 49.8 Outdoor Activity ^M ^M Ethnic Diff?

^13-15, ^H, B, O 10-12 Proportion of Time Kids Spend Outdoors in Mostly Natural Places Proportion of outdoor time in natural places Percent of Kids Male Female Total None of it 41.0 50.3 44.7 About 1/4 of it 14.7 17.0

15.6 About 1/3 of it 4.1 5.7 5.0 About half of it 7.7 14.6 10.6 32.6 12.4 24.1 More than half of it Assumptions

Reality ( Outdoor Recreation Participation Summary Visitation to public lands varies by agency, some up, some down Overriding trends = very different activities now, growth of naturebased recreation, especially viewing & photographing nature Different segments of society chose different types & levels of outdoor activities Evidence that Americas youth do spend time outdoors & for some it is substantial Public lands continue to be highly important due to the recreation opportunities they offer What about Future Trends? Increases for some activities & declines for others?

National Population Projection---RPA Forecasts 550 500 A Look to the Future 50 505 5 450 447 400 397 350 300 250 2000 2007 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 A2 Scenario Year A1/Census Scenario

Worked from national & regional forecasts to county level for population, income, climate, & land use change for all counties in U.S. (including AK & HI) Population forecasts are important because they tend to be the primary driver for recreation futures? Availability of Recreation Opportunities---Location of Resources Relative to Location of Potential Recreation Users Nine basic resources that form the foundation for nature-based outdoor recreation & tourism: Federal & state park land Water Forest Open range & pasture Ocean & Great Lakes coast Mountains Snow cover Specially designated federal lands Private recreation businesses Availability---Location of Resources Relative to Location of Potential Recreation Users (population) For spatially mapping & analyzing the nine basic resources, three distance zones were asserted from the center of each county: Home countyQuantity of the resource within the boundaries

of each U. S. county. (percent of county land surface area & percapita area)local resources 75-mile ZoneResources within the home county & in nearby counties whose centroids are within 75 miles--day trip zone 75- 125 Mile ZoneResources across counties whose centroids are between 75-to-125 miles, outer ring or donut within a 2-to-4 hour drive--overnight trips Three travel distance zones were asserted relative to the center of each U. S. county. (Current picture) Water area Current Patterns & Forecast Futures were developed, e.g., water area per capita Projected 2060 Sub-region & region Northeast North Central North Region Southeast South Central South Region Great Plains

Intermountain Rocky Mountains Region Alaska Pacific Northwest Pacific Southwest Pacific Coast Region U. S. Total Total Per capita per capita acres, 2008 acres, 2008 acres, 2060 14,328.5 0.23 0.18 42,505.3 0.70 0.55 56,833.8 0.46 0.36 15,068.8 0.30 0.18 14,213.4 0.27 0.18 29,282.1

0.28 0.18 2,495.3 0.41 0.32 Proportion of 2008 acres projected for 2060 0.79 0.79 0.79 0.60 0.66 0.63 0.76 4,793.4 0.22 0.11 0.52 7,288.8 58,442.2

4,569.2 7,836.5 70,848.0 164,252.7 0.26 85.54 0.44 0.21 1.44 0.54 0.15 50.43 0.27 0.13 0.93 0.37 0.56 0.59 0.61 0.65 0.64 0.68 Projected for all U.S. counties

Simultaneously, Projections were being Developed for Demand U.S. Outdoor Recreation Participation: Projections 2010 to 2060 J.M. Bowker and H. Ken Cordell - USDA Forest Service Ashley Askew and Gary T. Green - University of Georgia 33rd Annual Southeastern Recreation Research Conference February 27th March 1st 2011 Boone, NC 10 Primary Activities Birding Equestrian

Hiking/backpacking Canoeing/kayaking/rafting Fishing Hunting Snow skiing/snow boarding Motorized off-road use Motorized water use Motorized snow use 7 Activity Composites Viewing, photographing, studying, gathering nature (birds, scenery, flowers/trees, wildlife, fish, gathering natural products) Visiting interpretive sites (nature centers, zoos, historic sites, prehistoric sites) Using developed sites (family gatherings, picnicking, developed camping) Winter activities (ice skating, cross country, sledding, snow shoeing) Swimming (swimming, visit a beach, visit another waterside, surfing, snorkeling, diving) Challenge activities (mountain biking, mountain climbing, rock climbing, caving) Visiting primitive areas, primitive camping, backpacking Data NSRE (1999-2009) 90,000+ potential observations

Household-based Post-sample weighted Demographic variables Supply variables Recreation variables (various sources FS, NPS, Norsis) Forest Service (Wears) land use projections for scenarios Woods & Poole Economic data Population density Forecast Highlights Per capita participation generally drops Number of participants generally rises Forecasts are population driven Forecasts also income driven Scenario A1B (high income, moderate pop) highest growth Fastest Growing in Participants Developed Skiing (68-147%) climate?? Undeveloped Skiing (55-106%) climate?? Challenge Activities (50-86%) Slowest Growing in Participants Motorized off-road (29-56%) Fishing (27-56%) Hunting (8-23%)

Forecast Index of Per-capita Participation, 2060 Developed site use 1.026 Visiting interpretive site 1.089 Birding 1.075 Viewing nature 1.035 Challenge activities 1.176 Equestrian activities 1.186 Day hiking 1.097 Declining Slight growth Fastest growing Forecast Index of Per-capita Participation, 2060

Visiting primitive areas0.995 Motorized off-road activities 0.995 Motorized water use 1.154 Motorized snow use 1.026 Hunting 0.781 Fishing 0.970 Developed skiing 1.570 Undeveloped skiing 1.309 Swimming 1.109 Canoeing, kayaking, or rafting 1.031 Simultaneous, Modeling & Forecasting Rural Population Migration as Influenced by Natural Amenities Data project population shift from Midwest Shift to Inter-Mountain & Pacific Northwest Regions, Southern Appalachian & Ozark Mountains, & northern New England. Results suggest a direct impact of changing natural amenities & climate change on rural population migration H. Ken Cordell

Vah Heboyan Florence Santos John C. Bergstrom Model and Method RInternalMig = 0 + 1 pcempit + 2meansummrit-1 + 3 pptit-1 + 4 pcropit-1 + 5 pcrop 2it-1 + 6lnpcyit-1 + 1meanwintrit-1 + 2 pforestit-1 + 3 pforest 2it-1 + 4 ppastureit-1 + 5 ppasture 2it-1 + 6 prangeit-1 + 7 prange2it-1 + 8lnpcfd100i + 9lnpwateri + 10 percmounti + 11coasti + 12 snowmedi + 13 pwetlandi + 14lnpdit-1 + 15lnpd 2it-1 + 16TERi + ci + it Method: Fixed Effects Vector Decomposition (FEVD) econometric estimation method Based on Plmper and Troeger, 2007 technique for estimating time invariant and rarely changing variables. Estimated model is used to assess static effects of natural amenities on rural migration, and project effects of changes in natural amenities on rural population migration rates to 2060. 69 Key Findings People prefer rural areas with mild winters & cooler summers Preference is for varied landscapes that feature a mix of forest land & open space Effect of changes in natural amenities on rural population migration (2010-2060)

Positive effects Inter-mountain & Pacific Northwest regions Parts of the Southeastern, South Central, & Northeastern U.S. (e.g., Southern Appalachian Mountains, Ozark Mountains, northern New England. Negative effects Midwestern regions (e.g., Great Plains & North Central)70 Average Effects of Natural Amenities on Rural Population Net Migration 1 unit increase in per capita federal designated land area will cause rural population to increase by 360. 1 unit increase in average number of days with snowfall 1 inch will cause rural population to increase by 59. 1 degree (Celsius) increase in average winter temperature will cause rural population to increase by 110. 1% increase in range land will cause rural population to increase by 67. 1% increase in forest land will cause rural population to increase by 215. 1% increase in pasture land will increase rural population by 148. 71 Forecasted Effect of Natural Amenities on Rural Population Change, 2007-2020, 2010 RPA Climate Scenario A1B, Projection CGCM 3.1 72

Summary of this decades trends Moving average index 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Year Visit Recreation And Historic Sites Viewing/Photographing Nature Backcountry Activities Motorized Activities Hunting And Fishing Boise National Forest Archives Motorized activities, along with hunting, fishing, & backcountry activities, same level as 2000 Non-motor boating & visiting 2007 2008 recreation & historic sites grew

modestly Various forms of skiing, including snowboarding, declined Clear leader was the overall group of activities named viewing & photographing nature Forecast Summary---Participation Rate Five outdoor recreation activities are projected for fastest growth in per capita participation: Developed skiing (20 to 50 percent) Undeveloped skiing (9 to 31 percent) Challenge activities (6 to 18 percent increase) Equestrian activities (3 to 19 percent) Motorized water activities (-3 to 15 percent). A number of activities are projected to decline:

Visiting primitive areas (0 to -5 percent) Motorized off-road activities (0 to -18 percent) Motorized snow activities (2 to -11 percent) Hunting (-22 to -31 percent) Fishing (-3 to -10 percent) Floating activities (3 to -11 percent). Natural Amenity Migration Forecast Summary People prefer rural areas with mild winters & cooler summers Preference is for varied landscapes that feature a mix of forest land & open space Effect of changes in natural amenities on rural population migration (2010-2060) Positive effect Inter-mountain & Pacific Northwest regions Parts of the Southeastern, South Central, & Northeastern U.S. (e.g., Southern Appalachian Mountains, Ozark Mountains, northern New England. Negative effects Midwestern regions (e.g., Great Plains & North Central).

75 RPA Social & Resource Data & Projections 15 Spreadsheets with 180+ variables 1. AMENITIES Climate and natural features, housing units 2. AIRPORTS Database of U. S. airports and heliports 3. LANDAREA Total land and water area, federal agency acreage, NRI land cover/use, wilderness, state parks 4. RECGOV Federal recreation sites/facilities 5. CBP07 Census Bureau, 2007 County Business Patterns for recreation businesses 6. LOCALGOVT Census Bureau, 2007 Census of Governments, local government recreation and park agencies 7. POP_A1 Population projections to 2060, IPCC A1 scenario 8. DPI_A1 Disposable personal income based on IPCC A1 scenario 9. LANDUSE_A1

10. POP_A2 Land cover/use projections to 2062, based on IPCC A1 scenario Population projections to 2060, IPCC A2 scenario 11. DPI_A2 Disposable personal income based on IPCC A2 scenario 12. LANDUSE_A2 Land cover/use projections to 2062, based on IPCC A2 scenario 13. POP_A1 Population projections to 2060, IPCC A1 scenario 14. DPI_A1 Disposable personal income based on IPCC A1 scenario 15. LANDUSE_A1 Land cover/use projections to 2062, based on IPCC A1 scenario Accessing RPA Data http://

Colorado warnell.forestry.uga.edu/ Current and forecast population, land use, per-capita supply, climate, nrrt/nsre/index.html ., for all counties in the U. S. Published research for the 2010 Assessment includes: National to County Population Projections Recreation Demand Trends & Futures in the U.S. to 2060 Recreation & Protected Land Resource Trends & Futures Natural Amenity Effects on Population Migration in the U.S. Outdoor Recreation Trends & Futures in the United States Introduction, Objectives, & Organization of this Report Methods & Data Recreation Participation Trends (National & Regional) Comparison of Recreation Participation

Patterns Across Demographic, Region & Natural Settings Youth Time & Activities Outdoors Recreation Use of Public & Private Properties Outdoor Recreation Projection to 2060 Summary Recreation & Protected Land Resources in the United States Land & Water Resources in the U.S. Protected Land: Private Lands & Federal Parks, Refuges, & Wilderness Recreation through the private sector Public Outdoor Recreation Resources Geospatial Patterns of Recreation Resources Projections of Future Recreation Resources Summary: Recreation & Protected Land Resources in the United States Rural Population Migration Trends & Patterns in the United States & Relationship to Natural Amenities Review of Amenity Migration Concepts & Studies Defining Natural Amenity Migration Measuring Natural Amenities Impacts of Climate Change on Natural Amenities Rural Population & Natural Amenities

Estimation of the Influence of Natural Amenities on Population Migration Empirical Model Specification & Estimation Data Description Empirical Results Forecasting Effects of Natural Amenities on Rural Population 2010 RPA Climate & Amenity Effect Projections Rural Population Forecasts Effects of Projected Climate Change on Rural Migration Summary & Implications for Planning and Resource Mgt. End

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    Times New Roman Arial Wingdings Beam Microsoft Graph 97 Chart Microsoft PowerPoint Presentation Microsoft Clip Gallery Microsoft Office Excel Chart ICE Injury Statistics International meeting Washington DC, September 7-8, 2006 PAHO's Current Projects Morbidity data Slide 4 Cali, Colombia: a...
  • Are there any precursors of the 1998 failed magmatic eruption ...

    Are there any precursors of the 1998 failed magmatic eruption ...

    Seismic Tomography beneath Mt. Fuji. low V. P, low V S, low V P /V. S Supersaturated H. 2 O, CO. 2 low V. P, low V S, high V P /V. S Partial Molten Rocks / Magma Reservoir. Deep...
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    Chapter 9 Intro to Development Rich and Poor

    Tertiary jobs are service jobs. A person with specialized skills provides a service to another person for a fee. Doctor, lawyer, teacher, banker, accountant, architect, restaurant, store, government job. ... Quaternary jobs. Highly skilled, information-based services; usually includes management.
  • Diabetes and Mental Health

    Diabetes and Mental Health

    No current EPSE's so ideally reduce and stop procyclidine but may need as he's still on haloperidol. Can cause blurred vision, dry mouth, constipation, urinary retention, cognitive impairment, poor coordination and delirium.