A Study shows a link between Chewing Gum and Lung Cancer. Does chewing gum cause cancer? If not, why does the correlation exist? Many smokers chew gum to mask the smell of smoke on their breath. Smoking is a direct CAUSE of lung cancer, and therefore the LINK between chewing gum and lung cancer. An argument for global warming. Kodak Stock Price 1987
Why is driver death rate decreasing?? 2013 Nation X = TV's per capita Y = life exp. (years) Angola Australia Cambodia Canada China Haiti Japan
Russia UK USA Yemen 1/200 1/2 1/177 1/1.7 1/15 1/234 1/1.8 1/3.2
1/3 1/1.3 1/38 44 76.5 49.5 76.5 70 53.5 79 69 76
75.5 50 With a 300% increase this year, The Church of Mickey Mouse is the fastest growing church in the world. Its members have increased from 1 to 3. Communities with the largest crime rates also have the greatest number of mosques. (CITIES have the greatest crime rates because they have the greatest number of people!!!
Education and earning potential. 1. 9th grade $16,322 2. Some high school $19,095 3. High school grad $25,081
Education and earning potential. 1. 9th grade 2. Some high school 3. High school grad 4. Some college(no degree) 5. Associate's degree 6. Bachelor's degree 7. Master's degree 8. Professional degree $16,322 $19,095 $25,081
$29,903 $31,358 $41,361 $50,704 $76,659 9. PhD $71,541 X = driving credit score Y = average incurred loss per policy (1-worst 10%, 2-next lowest 10%, , 10-best 10%)
Is there a correlation? _____ What kind? _________ Who has the best GM in the league? _____________ Who is the worst GM in the league? ______________ Size of sample is important for accuracy More data = better results! Correlation; describes the degree of relatedness between two variables, but NOT necessarily causation!! Positive correlation; both variables move in the same direction (both up OR both down)
Ex. IQ and test scores Attendance and grades School cell phone use and detentions Negative correlation; variables move in opposite directions. Ex. Brushing teeth and number of cavities. Life expectancy and smoking. Children raised in homes with more appliances tend to perform better in school. Therefore, appliances improve intelligence.
Correlation does not imply causation There is a correlation between watching violence on TV and violence in adolescence. Can you conclude that violence on TV causes violent kids? NO. It could be a direct result of a third factor, such as growing up in a violent home. but it can be used to make predictions.
Experiments Observations Case Studies Surveys Longitudinal Studies Cross-cultural studies Samples: Small group of the tested population Must be representative of the larger population To avoid bias Random Sample; individuals picked purely by chance (every individual has an equal chance of
being selected) Stratified Sample; individuals deliberately chosen from various sub-groups of the population. Ethnicity, age, sex, political/religious affiliation, etc 1.Experiments Control the situation, environment Decrease the influence of outside factors Hypothesis; educated guessestablish the foundation of the experiment Independent variable; the factor the experimenter changes to see its effect Dependent variable; the factor that is measured
to see how it was affected by the independent variable A + B + C + D = X Temperature Water Light Soil Growth
Hypothesis: If I allow administer more Light, then the plant will grow faster. Independent variable: Light (manipulated by researcher) Dependent variable: Growth (result of independent variable) Constant: Temperature, water, Soil Control Group: 12 hours of light Experimental Group: 24 hours of light
Controlled experiment: Hypothesis: Red light helps plants grow better than blue light Independent variable: Color of light 12 hrs/day Dependent variable: Height of plant 12 hrs/day liter of water/day
degrees Celcius soil Every factor other than the independent variable should remain CONSTANT! Experimental group: gets the independent variable Control group: gets treated exactly the same as the experimental group EXCEPT for the independent variable Experimental results must be replicable. Results published in a journal then reviewed and critiqued by peers. If results can be replicated and the methods and conclusions accepted by the scientific community the results are accepted as either supporting or not supporting the
hypothesis. You cannot really PROVE things in science! If you increase the number of cigarettes you smoke, then you will increase your risk for lung cancer. Independent : ________________________________________________ Dependent: __________________________________________________ If you increase the amount of blood in the water, then you will increase the number of sharks in the area. Independent : ________________________________________________ Dependent: __________________________________________________ If you increase the amount of milk you drink, then you will increase the strength of your bones. Independent : ________________________________________________
Dependent: __________________________________________________ If you increase the number of hours you spend in practice, then you will increase the number of free throw shots you will make. Independent : ________________________________________________ Dependent: __________________________________________________ One trap to avoid in research: Self-fulfilling prophecy The researcher finds what they expect to find and ignore or overlook other important facts, data, etc. The researcher may do this unknowingly, which is why we publish results
Does a researchers beliefs, attitudes, or feelings affect the way he or she will interpret the results of an experiment? If I work for an oil company or a utility company that uses coal, will I be as likely to believe in global warming, or will I only look at data that support what I already believe? (cherry picking the data) Researcher Glenn Begley was trying to replicate a study of tumor growth in animals, based off of a scientific paper written by an unnamed researcher (Couzin-Frankel, 2013, p. 68). But for some reason, Begley could not seem to get the same outcome that the researcher did (Couzin-Frankel, 2013, p. 68). So in 2011, Begley met with the unnamed researcher and described his dilemma, to try and understand what he was doing wrong (CouzinFrankel, 2013, p.68).
The researcher explained that out of the 12 trials conducted in the experiment, only ONE was successful, and that was the trial that was published (Couzin-Frankel, 2013, p. 68). In this case, the unnamed researchers use of cherry picking in the presentation of their results misled other researchers to believe that their study was entirely successful when it in fact was not. Not only was the researchers conduct unethical, but it was also a blatant misrepresentation of the progress being made in that particular branch of cancer research. It is particularly damaging because the public trusts that sources are reliable, and these false reporting's contribute to myths and rumors. My political candidate gives 10% of his income to the needy,
goes to church every Sunday, and volunteers one day a week at a homeless shelter. Therefore, he is honest and morally straight. Explanation: What information was left out of the example is that this same candidate gives 10% of his income to needy prostitutes in exchange for services, goes to the bar every Sunday after church (and sometimes before), and only works at the homeless shelter to get clients for his drug dealing business. 4 Steps to Self-Fulfilling Prophecy 1.Perceiver has expectations about how target will behave 2. Perceiver then behaves in a way that is likely to elicit the expected target behavior
3. Target indeed behaves in a way that confirms perceivers s expectations 4. Perceiver (Objective Perceiver) sees predicted behavior The Placebo effect You expect your new roommate to be shy so you dont speak much to him after he moves in, and he therefore does seem shy A coach expects his freshmen to be uncoordinated and unskilled so he does not play them often, and when he does they are rusty and do not perform well Your professor expects you to do well and she
spends extra time with you preparing for the exam, so you get an A Solution: The Double-Blind Study vs Single-blind study: the test subjects are blind, but the researcher knows the Coke and Pepsi cups and could influence the results with body language, voice inflection, eye movements, etc. (intentional or not)
Double-blind study: both the test subjects and the researcher are blind. If neither know the products in the cups, no improper influence could affect the results. 2. Naturalistic Observation: To understand how the subjects behave naturally Avoid disturbing or interacting with the subjects 3. Case Studies: Intensive investigation of an individual
or group Usually focus on a particular problem or experience Combine long-term observations (psychological tests, behavior reports, self-reports, etc) Lacks a control group for comparison 4. Surveys Most practical way to gather data on attitudes, beliefs, and experiences from a large group of individuals quickly and easily.
1. Interviews; allow modification of the question if needed 2.Questionnaires; Less time Results more uniform Eliminates influence of researcher 5. Longitudinal Studies Covers long periods of time Study and restudy the same group at regular intervals to determine changes in behavior Time consuminggood results may
take years to obtain and publish 6. Cross cultural studies Comparisons of the way people in different cultures behave, think, feel, etc Certain values appear to be universal, but cultural differences do affect the development of moral reasoning. Coca-Cola spends more money on advertising ($2.9billion) than Microsoft and Apple combined
Coke uses 300,000 tons of aluminum for its cans every year just for its US operations. That's equal to 17.4% of what the entire US aluminum industry produces The Coca-Cola brand is worth an estimated $74 billion: more than Budweiser, Pepsi, Starbucks and Red Bull combined Coke makes so many different beverages that if you drank one per day, it would take you over 9 years to try them all Coca-Cola sells more than 1000 kinds of juice drinks, including: Simply, Minute Maid, Fruitopia, Hi-C, Fuze and Odwalla
Pepsi owns non-drink brands like Frito-Lays and Quaker Oats The average American consumes 10lbs of sugar from drinking Coke every year
Sources: not used in depth and not the best ones to use, a more skilled candidate would have used more teachings of Jesus and applied them to the modern world Conclusion: there is an attempt but there is no depth...
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