A SHORT HISTORY OF PROPERTY VALUATION MODELS THE

A SHORT HISTORY OF PROPERTY VALUATION MODELS  THE

A SHORT HISTORY OF PROPERTY VALUATION MODELS THE 17TH TO 21ST CENTURY Prepared for presentation at the European Real Estate Society Conference, Stockholm, Sweden, 27 June 2009 Rodney L Jefferies Agricultural Management and Property Studies Department, Commerce Faculty, Lincoln University, Canterbury, New Zealand P.O. Box 84, Lincoln University, Lincoln 7647, New Zealand 1 Overview of Paper The aim of this paper is to set in context of a history necessarily short to fit in the scope of a conference paper concentrating on describing and examining the development of investment valuation models not the theory beyond that necessary to explain the models in their historical context. It does deal with methodology but only to the extent as to how the models fit within the broader investment valuation paradigms of their day and professional generation. This paper, based on the authors PhD current research literature review, omits any equations and examples of the models referred to. The citations and references refer the reader to relevant sources for such details and elaborations by the originators of the models. (A Doctoral proposal was presented at this ERES Conference Doctoral Session 1.5 A generic property interest real value investment valuation model). Accompanying this paper is a colour chart [Following] setting out the key contributions to income valuation models historically over the last four centuries in chronological order by decades within each highlighted century, beginning in 1600 to the present time. This shows the contributions of the various authors stratified into those from the UK, USA, and Australia/New Zealand with a brief identification of their key publications or contributions. It highlights the historical developments in income valuation models set longitudinally against the different technologies available to valuers applying these models in practice. Sections in Paper Introduction History of income valuation thought, concepts, professional practice and standards Historical development of investment valuation models Investment versus market value Firstly, UK property investment valuation models History of models and valuation tables in 16th18th Century Equated yield models UK rational or logical valuation models Real value models RICS Research report into valuation methods UK Professional response and EY endorsement Real Value Hybrid Model Discounted cash flow models in the UK Advanced explicit DCF, arbitrage , split tenant-risk/market risk rate , actuarial, convertible bond and real options models Inter-country comparisons Clays 17th Century Valuation Model Based on 30 years purchase @ 3.33% p.a. 4 Sections in Paper Continued Secondly, USA investment real estate appraisal models Capitalization models in the USA 1930-1960s Split-capitalization models Band of investment models Ellwoods mortgage-equity model Discounted cash flow (DCF) models in USA Blackadars dynamic capitalization model Thirdly, Australia & New Zealand Synthesis of traditional and other models from UK & USA Australian & New Zealand adaptations of DCFs from overseas models

DCF model development & standards in Australia & New Zealand Jefferies generic real value model Influence of technology on progress Author's slide rule from the 1960's Odhner Mechanical Calculator circa 1935-45 as used by Author in Dunedin in 1964 6 Sections in Paper Continued Fourthly, The parallel influence of technology This first technological advance arose from the printing press mass produced readyreckoners, almanacs and valuation and interest tables from the early 17th Century Next advance was the introduction of slide rules in 18 th 20th Century Next was mechanical calculators invented in 1822 used to 1960s Next was electronic calculators invented in 1957 used to present Next was electronic computers invented in 1960s used to present Application of models to multi-tenanted properties The lag in textbook coverage Long live direct capitalisation! Progress is inevitable however! Valediction This author would propose a real value model for real estate valuation but hed have to say that wouldnt he? The time-charts Follow: Technology becomes electronic & then small and portable Vintage Sharp Compet 364R Calculator As used by Author ex 1973 & still on his desk Vintage Compaq Portable II -1986 As used by Author 1986-1995 8 Australia & New Zealand Land Economists & Valuation Model Contributors 1630 1640 1650 1660 1670 1680 1690 1700 1710 1720 1800 1810 1820 1830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1930 1991 - Douglas Scarrett 1994 - RICS 1995 - Gerald Brown 1995 - Alastair Adair et al 1995 - Andrew Baum and Neil Crosby 1995 - Nick French and Charles Ward 1996 - Andrew Adams and Philip Booth 2000 - David Isaac and Terry Steley 2000 - Tony Johnson et al 2002 - Tim Harvard 2002 & 2008 - Alick Davidson

2006 - Andrew Baum et al 2006 - Sarah Sayce et al 2007 - Peter Wyatt 2008 - Andrew Baum and Neil Crosby 2008 - Douglas Scarrett 1980 1990 2000 Kenneth Lusht - 2000 Karl-Verner Schulte - 2001 Dominick Fischer - 2002 Charles Akerson - 2000 & 2009 Tom Whipple - 2006 Appraisal Institute - 2001 & 2008 Richard Reed - 2007 Jeffrey Fisher and Robert Martin 2005 & 2008 1970 Appleby and Westwood 1991 Baillieu Knight Frank - 1992 Jefferies - 1990 Patrick Rowland - 1993 AIVLE - 1993. Tom Whipple - 1995 Rodney Jefferies - 1995 NZIV - 1995 Rodney Jefferies - 1996/7 AIVLE - 1997 Mech an Ical Calculato rs Jeffrey Fisher and Robert Martin -1991 Ken Lusht - 1996 1960 James Mason - 1982 Gordon Blackadar -1981/83 Computers 1980/82 - Stephen Sykes 1980/86 - Andrew Trott 1985 - Neil Crosby 1972 - Michael Greaves 1973 - Ernest Wood 1975/76 Philip Marshall 1976 - Jack Rose 1976 - Greenwell W. & Co. 1978 - Philip Bowcock 1978 - Alick Davidson 1950 Charles Akerson - 1970 William Kinnard Jnr - 1971 Graaskamp - 1971 Irvin Johnson - 1972 Lincoln North - 1973 Jeffrey Fisher - 1979 1940 James Graaskamp - 1969 S l i d e R u l e s Richard Ratcliff - 1949 R e a d y - R e c k o n e r s & I n t e r e s t T a b l e s Appraisal Institute - 1951

Arthur Weimer - 1953 Leon Ellwood - 1959 1920 Irving Fisher - 1930 Ivan Thornson - 1932 Frederick Babcock - 1932 Phillip Kniskern - 1933 Ivan Thorson - 1936 Thurston Ross - 1937 1910 - Clarence & Norman Webb 1913 - Richard Parry M ech an Ical Cal culators Frederick Babcock - 1924 Arthur Mertzke - 1927 John Grimes & William Craigue - 1928 1877 - Henry Hoskold 1867 - Karl Marx 1848 - John Stuart Mill 1730 1740 1750 1760 1770 1780 1790 1811 - William Inwood 1815 - Robert Malthus 1817 - David Ricardo Side Rules 1802 - Francis Baily Ready-Reckoners & Interest Tables 1726 - John Smart 1776 - Adam Smith 1662 - Sir William Petty 1667 - John Newton 1667 - Henry Phillips Calculators Mobil Oil N.Z. Ltd. - 1968 Squire Speedy - 1968 USA Land Economists & Valuation Model Contributors 1620 John Murray - 1949 Century/Decade 1600 1610 Richard Hurd - 1903 Irving Fisher - 1906 UK Land Economists & Valuation Model Contributors Electroni c Calcu lato rs Computers R e a d y - R e c k o n e r s & I n t e r e s t T a b l e s

Isaac and Terry Steley publish "Property Valuation Techniques" Tony Johnson et al publish "Modern Methods of Valuation - 9th Ed" Kenneth Lusht publishes "Real Estate Valuation Principles and Applications" Akerson publishes AI's "Capitalisation Theory and Techniques: Study Guide" Schulte publishes "Real Estate Education Throughout The World: Past, Present and Future" Fischer publishes "Property Valuation Methodology" Harvard publishes "Investment Property Valuation Today" Davidson publishes 12th & 13th Edns of "Parry's Valuation & Investment Tables" AI publish 12th & 13th Edns of "The Appraisal of Real Estate" Fisher and Martin publish 2nd & 3rd Edns of "Income Property Valuation" Andrew Baum et al publish 4th Ed of "The Income Approach to Property Valuation" Sarah Sayce et al publish "Real Estate Appraisal: From Value to Worth" Whipple publishes 2nd Edn of "Property valuation and analysis" Reed edits "The valuation of real estate the Australian edition of the Appraisal of Real Estate 12th Edn" Wyatt publishes "Property valuation in an economic context" Baum and Crosby publish 3rd Edn of "Property Investment Appraisal" Scarrett publishes 2nd Edn of "Property Valuation: The Fisher and Martin publish "Income Property Appraisal" Appleby & Westwood publish "The Australian Valuation and Life Annuity Tables" Scarrett publishes "Property Valuation: The five methods" Brown proposed a "Split tenant-risk/market risk rate model" Alastair Adair et al publish "European Valuation Practice: Theory and Technique" Baum and Crosby publish "Property Investment Appraisal" French & Ward proposed an "Arbitrage model" Jefferies published "Urban Valuation in New Zealand Vol. II" Rowland publishes "Property Investments and Their Financing" Baillieu Knight Frank - organised the "Property Economic Task Force" AIVLE issue "Information Paper on Use of Discounted Cash Flow in Property Valuations" RICS - issues "The Mallinson Report - The Presidents Working Party on Commercial Property Valuations" Whipple publishes "Property valuation and analysis" Jefferies NZIV monograph "Discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation techniques & spreadsheet applications" NZIV issue "Guidance Note 4: Use of Discounted Cash Flow Techniques in Property Valuations." Lusht publishes "Real Estate Valuation" Andrew & Booth proposed an "Actuarial and a convertible bond model" Sykes proposes a "Rational valuation model" Trott chaired "RICS Research project into property valuation methods" Blackadar developed a dynamic capitalization model Mason produced "American Institute of Real Estate Appraisers Financial Tables" Crosby advocates a "hybrid equated yield and real value (short-cut DCF) model" Appraisal Institute starts "The Appraisal of Real Estate" Weimer advocated "capitalization as only valid method" Ellwood created mortgage-equity method and published "Tables for Real Estate Appraising and

Financing" Mobil Oil N.Z. Ltd. Publishes "DCF Investment Analysis" Speedy advocates "Investment by DCF methods." Graaskamp promoted a practical computer service for the income approach. Graaskamp driving force behind EDUCARE courses at Wisconsin University Akerson developed "Ellwood Without Algebra method" Kinnard publishes "Income Property Valuation" Johnson published "The Instant Mortgage-Equity Technique" Greaves accredited with ... catalysed the gradual adoption of the DCF method of valuation in the UK" Wood advocates a "real value valuation method" North publishes "Real estate investment analysis and valuation" Marshall created "equated yield" model also producing the initial tables & "Donaldson's Investment Tables" (1979) Rose publishes "Roses Property Valuation Tables" Greenwell W. &. Co called for a "New valuation method" Bowcock publishes "Property Valuation Tables" Davidson published "Parry's Valuation and Investment Tables" 10th Edition Fisher - refined Ellwoods J-Factors for straight-line or Ratcliff wrote "Urban Land Econmics" John Murray wrote "Principles and Practice of Valuation" Fisher wrote "Theory of Interest ". Thornson denounced "Annuitists" advocating Hoskold. Babcock advocated "Split capitalization rates" in "The Appraisal of Real Estate". Kniskern advocated a "Single capitalization rate" . Thornson - advocated "Split-rate capitalization method" with sinking fund added to the capitalization rate Ross originated "Band-of-investment" method. Babcock wrote "The Appraisal of Real Estate". Mertzke advocated a "built-up capitalization rate". Grimes & Craigue advocated a "three-interest-rate". the valuation of land and buildings etc. for various purposes" which capitalised nett annaul income at a number of years purchase. Parry published "Parrys Valuation and Investment Tables " Hurd defined urban value as economic rent or ground rent capitalized. Fisher reputedly coined the term "rate of capitalization" & the theory of valuing income-producing capital. Webbs published "Valuation of Real Property: A guide to Hoskold published "Enginer's Valuing Assistant" reputedly created a capitalization rate @ speculative rate + sinking fund @ safe rate Marx published "Das Kapital" Mills published "Elements of political economy" Inwood's "Tables for the Purchasing of Estates" - one of the most famous - used into the 20th Century Malthus published "An inquiry into the progress of rent" Ricardo published "On the principles of political economy" derivations of compound interest formulas Baily wrote "Tables for the purchasing and renewing of leases" , consolidating earlier writers and giving mathematical Smart published " Tables of Interest, Discount Annuites &c. Smith published "Wealth of Nations"- incl. theory of rent as function of price.

Petty developed capitalisation using "years purchase". Newton established theorems of compound interest Phillips published "Compound interest & annuity" & misc tables for reconstruction after the 1666 Fire of London Rents Foreborne, also for the Valuation of Leases, Annuities and Purchases either in Present or in Reversion ". Clay wrote " Easy, and Necessary Tables of Interest and NOTES: Key contributions to land ecomomics and income valuation models 1617 - Thomas Clay 17th 21st Century Development of Income Valuation Models Chronological Overview El ectro ni c Cal culators Co mput ers S l i d e R u l e s R e a d y - R e c k o n e r s & I n t e r e s t T a b l e s Dont worry its too small - overall view - see next slide for 17 th Century only! 2010 2020 UK Land Economists & Valuation Model Contributors Century/Decade 1600 1610 USA Land Economists & Valuation Model Contributors Australia & New Zealand Land Economists & Valuation Model Contributors 1620 1630 1640 1650 1660 1670 1680 1690 1700 1710 1720 1800 1810 1820 1830 1840 1850 1860 1877 - Henry Hoskold Calculators 1867 - Karl Marx 1848 - John Stuart Mill 1730 1740 1750 1760 1770 1780 1790 1811 - William Inwood 1815 - Robert Malthus 1817 - David Ricardo Side Rules 1802 - Francis Baily

Ready-Reckoners & Interest Tables 1726 - John Smart 1776 - Adam Smith 1662 - Sir William Petty 1667 - John Newton 1667 - Henry Phillips Hoskold published "Enginer's Valuing Assistant" reputedly created a capitalization rate @ speculative rate + sinking fund @ safe rate Marx published "Das Kapital" Mills published "Elements of political economy" Inwood's "Tables for the Purchasing of Estates" - one of the most famous - used into the 20th Century Malthus published "An inquiry into the progress of rent" Ricardo published "On the principles of political economy" derivations of compound interest formulas Baily wrote "Tables for the purchasing and renewing of leases" , consolidating earlier writers and giving mathematical Smart published "Tables of Interest, Discount Annuites &c. Smith published "Wealth of Nations"- incl. theory of rent as function of price. Petty developed capitalisation using "years purchase". Newton established theorems of compound interest Phillips published "Compound interest & annuity" & misc tables for reconstruction after the 1666 Fire of London Rents Foreborne, also for the Valuation of Leases, Annuities and Purchases either in Present or in Reversion ". Clay wrote "Easy, and Necessary Tables of Interest and NOTES: Key contributions to land ecomomics and income valuation models 1617 - Thomas Clay 17th - 19th Century Development of Income Valuation Models - Chronological Overview Computers MechanIcal Calculators R e a d y - R e c k o n e r s & I n t e r e s t T a b l e s S l i d e R u l e s 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 Chronological Overview 17th Century NOTES: Key contributions to land ecomomics and income valuation models

Computers Calculators Side Rules Ready-Reckoners & Interest Tables UK Land Economists & Valuation Model Contributors Century/Decade 1600 1610 USA Land Economists & Valuation Model Contributors Australia & New Zealand Land Economists & Valuation Model Contributors 1620 Clay wrote "Easy, and Necessary Tables of Interest and 1617 - Thomas Clay Rents Foreborne, also for the Valuation of Leases, Annuities and Purchases either in Present or in Reversion ". 1630 1640 1650 1660 Petty developed capitalisation using "years purchase". Newton established theorems of compound interest Phillips published "Compound interest & annuity" & misc tables for reconstruction after the 1666 Fire of London 1662 - Sir William Petty 1667 - John Newton 1667 - Henry Phillips 1720 1730 1740 1750 R e a d y - R e c k o n e r s & 1670 1680 1690 1700 1710 12 1630 1640 1650 Chronological Overview 18th Century NOTES: Key contributions to land ecomomics and income valuation models Computers Calculators Side Rules derivations of compound interest formulas S l i d e R u l e s Baily wrote "Tables for the purchasing and renewing of

leases" , consolidating earlier writers and giving mathematical UK Land Economists & Valuation Model Contributors Australia & New Zealand Land Economists & Valuation Model Contributors USA Land Economists & Valuation Model Contributors 1660 Century/Decade 1670 1680 1690 1600 1700 1610 1710 1620 1720 1630 1730 1740 1750 1760 17801680 179016901800 1810 172018201730 18301740 18401750 18 1640 1650 1660 17701670 1700 1710 1802 - Francis Baily Ready-Reckoners R e a d y - R e c k o n e r s & I n t e r e s t RT ea ab dl ye -s R e c k o n e r s & & Interest Tables Smart published "Tables of Interest, Discount Annuites &c. Smith published "Wealth of Nations"- incl. theory of rent as function of price. 1726 - John Smart 1776 - Adam Smith 1720 - R e c k o n e r s & I n t e r e s t T a b l e s 1710 NOTES: Key contributions to land ecomomics and income valuation models Computers 1877 - Henry Hoskold Baily wrote "Tables for the purchasing and renewing of leases" , consolidating earlier writers and giving mathematical derivations of compound interest formulas MechanIcal Calculators 1867 - Karl Marx Calculators

1848 - John Stuart Mill 1910 1730 17 R e a d y - R e c k o n e r 1620 1810 1630 1820 1640 1830 1650 1840 1850 1660 1860 16701870 1680 1690 18801700 1890171019001720 1811 - William Inwood 1815 - Robert Malthus 1817 - David Ricardo Side S Rules l i d e R u l e s 1802 - Francis Baily Ready-Reckoners & Interest Tables UK Land Economists & Valuation Model Contributors USA Land Economists & Valuation Model Contributors Australia & New Zealand Land Economists & Valuation Model Contributors 1730 1740 1750 1760 1770 1780 17901600 1800 1610 Century/Decade Chronological Overview 19th Century Inwood's "Tables for the Purchasing of Estates" - one of the most famous - used into the 20th Century Malthus published "An inquiry into the progress of rent" Ricardo published "On the principles of political economy" Mills published "Elements of political economy" Marx published "Das Kapital" Hoskold published "Enginer's Valuing Assistant" reputedly created a capitalization rate @ speculative rate + sinking fund @ safe rate ors c h a n I c a l C a l c u l a tCalculators 1820 1830 1840 1850 1860 Century/Decade

1870 1880 1890 1600 1900 1610 Chronological Overview Early to Mid 20th Century NOTES: Key contributions to land ecomomics and income valuation models Computers MechanIcal Calculators 1910 - Clarence & Norman Webb 1913 - Richard Parry S l i d e R u l e s James Graaskamp - 1969 1720 1960 1730 1740 1750 Mobil Oil N.Z. Ltd. - 1968 Squire Speedy - 1968 Side Rules Appraisal Institute - 1951 Arthur Weimer - 1953 Leon Ellwood - 1959 Hurd defined urban value as economic rent or ground rent capitalized. Fisher reputedly coined the term "rate of capitalization" & the theory of valuing income-producing capital. Webbs published "Valuation of Real Property: A guide to e k r so n & eI rn st e& r o n e c R e a d R y -e Ra ed cy k- R Richard Ratcliff - 1949 Ready-Reckoners & Interest Tables John Murray - 1949 166019301670 1680 1690 1940 1700 1710 1950 Irving Fisher - 1930 Ivan Thornson - 1932 Frederick Babcock - 1932 Phillip Kniskern - 1933 Ivan Thorson - 1936 Thurston Ross - 1937 162019101630 1640 19201650 Frederick Babcock - 1924 Arthur Mertzke - 1927 John Grimes & William Craigue - 1928

UK Land Economists & Valuation Model Contributors USA Land Economists & Valuation Model Contributors Australia & New Zealand Land Economists & Valuation Model Contributors Richard Hurd - 1903 Irving Fisher - 1906 the valuation of land and buildings etc. for various purposes"which capitalised nett annaul income at a number of years purchase. Parry published "Parrys Valuation and Investment Tables " Babcock wrote "The Appraisal of Real Estate". Mertzke advocated a "built-up capitalization rate". Grimes & Craigue advocated a "three-interest-rate". Fisher wrote "Theory of Interest ". Thornson denounced "Annuitists" advocating Hoskold. Babcock advocated "Split capitalization rates" in "The Appraisal of Real Estate". Kniskern advocated a "Single capitalization rate" . Thornson - advocated "Split-rate capitalization method" with sinking fund added to the capitalization rate Ross originated "Band-of-investment" method. Ratcliff wrote "Urban Land Econmics" John Murray wrote "Principles and Practice of Valuation" Appraisal Institute starts "The Appraisal of Real Estate" Weimer advocated "capitalization as only valid method" Ellwood created mortgage-equity method and published "Tables for Real Estate Appraising and Financing" Mobil Oil N.Z. Ltd. Publishes "DCF Investment Analysis" Speedy advocates "Investment by DCF methods." Graaskamp promoted a practical computer service for the income approach. R e a d y - R e c k o n e r s & I n t e r e s t T a b l e s 1930 1940 Chronological Overview Mid 20th Century NOTES: Key contributions to land ecomomics and income valuation models Computers Computers 1720 1730 1740 1750 R e a d y - R e c k o n e r s & 1670 1680 1690 1700 19801710 Electronic Calculators 1660 1980/82 - Stephen Sykes 1980/86 - Andrew Trott

1985 - Neil Crosby Calculators 1630 1640 1970 1650 James Mason - 1982 Gordon Blackadar -1981/83 Side Rules 1620 1972 - Michael Greaves 1973 - Ernest Wood 1975/76 Philip Marshall 1976 - Jack Rose 1976 - Greenwell W. & Co. 1978 - Philip Bowcock 1978 - Alick Davidson Ready-Reckoners & Interest Tables UK Land Economists & Valuation Model Contributors 1950 1960 1600 1610 Century/Decade USA Land Economists & Valuation Model Contributors Australia & New Zealand Land Economists & Valuation Model Contributors Charles Akerson - 1970 William Kinnard Jnr - 1971 Graaskamp - 1971 Irvin Johnson - 1972 Lincoln North - 1973 Jeffrey Fisher - 1979 Graaskamp driving force behind EDUCARE courses at Wisconsin University Akerson developed "Ellwood Without Algebra method" Kinnard publishes "Income Property Valuation" Johnson published "The Instant Mortgage-Equity Technique" Greaves accredited with ... catalysed the gradual adoption of the DCF method of valuation in the UK" Wood advocates a "real value valuation method" North publishes "Real estate investment analysis and valuation" Marshall created "equated yield" model also producing the initial tables & "Donaldson's Investment Tables" (1979) Rose publishes "Roses Property Valuation Tables" Greenwell W. &. Co called for a "New valuation method" Bowcock publishes "Property Valuation Tables" Davidson published "Parry's Valuation and Investment Tables" 10th Edition Fisher - refined Ellwoods J-Factors for straight-line or Sykes proposes a "Rational valuation model" Trott chaired "RICS Research project into property valuation methods" Blackadar developed a dynamic capitalization model

Mason produced "American Institute of Real Estate Appraisers Financial Tables" Crosby advocates a "hybrid equated yield and real value (short-cut DCF) model" Fisher and Martin publish "Income Property Appraisal" Appleby & Westwood publish "The Australian Valuation and Life Annuity Tables" Scarrett publishes "Property Valuation: The five methods" Brown proposed a "Split tenant-risk/market risk rate model" omputers c Calculators e s Chronological Overview Late 20th Century - 1990s 1620 1630 1640 1650 Jeffrey Fisher and Robert Martin -1991 Ken Lusht - 1996 1991 - Douglas Scarrett 1994 - RICS 1995 - Gerald Brown 1995 - Alastair Adair et al 1995 - Andrew Baum and Neil Crosby 1995 - Nick French and Charles Ward 1996 - Andrew Adams and Philip Booth Computers 1730 1740 1750 Electronic Calcula 1720 s t&e R e a dR ye - aRd ey c- kR oe nc ek ro sn &e rI n 1660 1990 1670 1680 1690 1700 1710 Appleby and Westwood 1991 Baillieu Knight Frank - 1992 Jefferies - 1990 Patrick Rowland - 1993 AIVLE - 1993. Tom Whipple - 1995 Rodney Jefferies - 1995 NZIV - 1995 Rodney Jefferies - 1996/7 AIVLE - 1997 NOTES: Key contributions to land ecomomics and income valuation models Computers Calculators Side Rules 1980/82 - Stephen Sykes

1980/86 - Andrew Trott 1985 - Neil Crosby Ready-Reckoners & Interest Tables UK Land Economists & Valuation Model Contributors 1980 1600 1610 Century/Decade USA Land Economists & Valuation Model Contributors Australia & New Zealand Land Economists & Valuation Model Contributors James Mason - 1982 Gordon Blackadar -1981/83 Sykes proposes a "Rational valuation model" Trott chaired "RICS Research project into property valuation methods" Blackadar developed a dynamic capitalization model Mason produced "American Institute of Real Estate Appraisers Financial Tables" Crosby advocates a "hybrid equated yield and real value (short-cut DCF) model" Fisher and Martin publish "Income Property Appraisal" Appleby & Westwood publish "The Australian Valuation and Life Annuity Tables" Scarrett publishes "Property Valuation: The five methods" Brown proposed a "Split tenant-risk/market risk rate model" Alastair Adair et al publish "European Valuation Practice: Theory and Technique" Baum and Crosby publish "Property Investment Appraisal" French & Ward proposed an "Arbitrage model" Jefferies published "Urban Valuation in New Zealand Vol. II" Rowland publishes "Property Investments and Their Financing" Baillieu Knight Frank - organised the "Property Economic Task Force" AIVLE issue "Information Paper on Use of Discounted Cash Flow in Property Valuations" RICS - issues "The Mallinson Report - The Presidents Working Party on Commercial Property Valuations" Whipple publishes "Property valuation and analysis" Jefferies NZIV monograph "Discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation techniques & spreadsheet applications" NZIV issue "Guidance Note 4: Use of Discounted Cash Flow Techniques in Property Valuations." Lusht publishes "Real Estate Valuation" Andrew & Booth proposed an "Actuarial and a convertible bond model" Jeffrey Fisher and Robert Martin -1991 Ken Lusht - 1996 1990 1995 - Alastair Adair et al 1995 - Andrew Baum and

Neil Crosby 1995 - Nick French and Charles Ward 1996 - Andrew Adams and Philip Booth R e a d y - R e c k o n e r s & I n t e r e s t T a b l e s Patrick Rowland - 1993 AIVLE - 1993. Tom Whipple - 1995 Rodney Jefferies - 1995 NZIV - 1995 Rodney Jefferies - 1996/7 AIVLE - 1997 Vol. II" Rowland publishes "Property Investments and Their Financing" Baillieu Knight Frank - organised the "Property Economic Task Force" AIVLE issue "Information Paper on Use of Discounted Cash Flow in Property Valuations" RICS - issues "The Mallinson Report - The Presidents Working Party on Commercial Property Valuations" Whipple publishes "Property valuation and analysis" Jefferies NZIV monograph "Discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation techniques & spreadsheet applications" NZIV issue "Guidance Note 4: Use of Discounted Cash Flow Techniques in Property Valuations." Lusht publishes "Real Estate Valuation" Andrew & Booth proposed an "Actuarial and a convertible bond model" Chronological Overview Beginnings of 21st Century - 2000s NOTES: Key contributions to land ecomomics and income valuation models Computers Com puters 1620 1630 1640 1650 E l e cCalculators tronic Calculators Side Rules Ready-Reckoners & Interest Tables UK Land Economists & Valuation Model Contributors Century/Decade 1600 1610 USA Land Economists & Valuation Model Contributors Australia & New Zealand Land Economists & Valuation Model Contributors

1720 1730 2010 1740 2020 1750 R e a d y - R e c k o n e r s & 16602000 1670 1680 1690 1700 1710 Kenneth Lusht - 2000 Karl-Verner Schulte - 2001 Dominick Fischer - 2002 Charles Akerson - 2000 & 2009 Tom Whipple - 2006 Appraisal Institute - 2001 & 2008 Richard Reed - 2007 Jeffrey Fisher and Robert Martin 2005 & 2008 2000 - David Isaac and Terry Steley 2000 - Tony Johnson et al 2002 - Tim Harvard 2002 & 2008 - Alick Davidson 2006 - Andrew Baum et al 2006 - Sarah Sayce et al 2007 - Peter Wyatt 2008 - Andrew Baum and Neil Crosby 2008 - Douglas Scarrett Isaac and Terry Steley publish "Property Valuation Techniques" Tony Johnson et al publish "Modern Methods of Valuation - 9th Ed" Kenneth Lusht publishes "Real Estate Valuation Principles and Applications" Akerson publishes AI's "Capitalisation Theory and Techniques: Study Guide" Schulte publishes "Real Estate Education Throughout The World: Past, Present and Future" Fischer publishes "Property Valuation Methodology" Harvard publishes "Investment Property Valuation Today" Davidson publishes 12th & 13th Edns of "Parry's Valuation & Investment Tables" AI publish 12th & 13th Edns of "The Appraisal of Real Estate" Fisher and Martin publish 2nd & 3rd Edns of "Income Property Valuation" Andrew Baum et al publish 4th Ed of "The Income Approach to Property Valuation" Sarah Sayce et al publish "Real Estate Appraisal: From Value to Worth" Whipple publishes 2nd Edn of "Property valuation and analysis" Reed edits "The valuation of real estate the Australian edition of the Appraisal of Real Estate 12th Edn" Wyatt publishes "Property valuation in an economic context" Baum and Crosby publish 3rd Edn of "Property Investment Appraisal" Scarrett publishes 2nd Edn of "Property Valuation: The

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