Simulating Geopolitical Decision Making Processes With LeaderSIM

Simulating Geopolitical Decision Making Processes With LeaderSIM

Simulating Geopolitical Decision Making Processes With LeaderSIM Barry Silverman Mike Johns Gnana Barthy Evan Sandhaus January 2006 PMFServ Architecture Stimuli PMFserv Perception Physiology Updates Biology/Stress Time Pressure Response Simulated World Observations of Other Agents Gibson Affordance Expression Action Choices Afforded Action Choice (physical, speech) Coping Style EF Physiolo- Energy InteES GillisJanisgy Tanks Tank grated Hursh sleep iStress Mann TP Stress Status

Cognitive Augmented Decision Theory Coping Style nutrition injury Value Trees (GSP, Bayes) Negative Emotions GSP Cog.App. Node (OCC) Fail/ Succeed BR Intention Management EV Relationship Parameter Levels SEU Candidate Action Current World State: GSP Leaf Node Affordance Updates Updates Emotions SEU (11 pairs) Subj. Utility (Damasio)

Relationship Tanks Relationship Parameter Levels Alignment Credibility/Trust Cognitive Unit Valence Personality, Culture, Emotion Identity Nested IntentDemography ionality SocialGroup Procg Properties Role Social Module Memory LEGEND: Emotions (11 pairs) Implements Literature Interprets Literature New PMF PMFServ Architecture Stimuli Response Perception Module Expression Biology Module/Stress T

- BR = E [ P U(st, at) ] t=1 + Personality, Culture, Emotion be free help others support terrorist protect children hide terrorist distract guards crowd together block guards vision Cognitive be independent sacrifice life survive protect terrorist run for cover Memory Social Module, Relations, Trust Agents in Role Playing Game Simulations Human Model of Others Intentions/GSPs Intentions/GSP Trees Needs & Wants Culture & Personality Relationships & Trust

Stressors/Personality & Coping Style Agent Discourse Bluffing Deception Threats/Pacts PMFserv Obj.Utility Cold Delibertn Game Theory PMFserv Perception Subj.Utility Hot Reaction Game World Territory Resources Groups ns s o i t Ac ance Threats er t t U Tributes Bluffs Battles etc. Model of Others Discourse ns s A o i t Ac ance Ut ctio ter n er t

t an s U ce s Intentions/GSPs Bluffing Deception Threats/Pacts Intentions/GSP Trees PMFserv Needs & Wants Culture & Personality Relationships & Trust Obj.Utility Cold Delibtn Game Theory PMFserv Perception Subj.Utility Hot Reaction Stressors/Stimulants & Coping Style Agent LeaderSim Architecture XMLRPC Athenas Prism Client LeaderSim AI PMFServ LeaderSim AI PMFServ Game Server Athenas

Prism Client Game World State Human Users Athenas Prism Client LeaderSim Game Elements Corporate Lobbying Covert Weapons Search Create Aid Project Create Biological WMD Create Chemical WMD Create Nuclear WMD Debt Forgiveness Destroy WMD Actions Leaders Affect Control Do Acknowledge Legitimacy Open Embassy Acquire Black Market WMD Activate Biological WMD Activate Chemical WMD Activate Nuclear WMD Air Strike Appease Fanatics Bust Have Territories Resources Action Selection Algorithm Power Vulnerability Scale Payment

Strategy WMD Action Alignment Attacking/Target Resource Pairs PMFServ Preferences Tree Goals Tree Reservoir Differences Ranked Attacking/Target Resource Pairs Offensive / Defensive Actions Ranked Actions Standards Tree Power And Vulnerability Power Measurement of an agents ability to act upon the resources of others Vulnerability Measurement of the ability of other agents to act upon ones own resources P ( a ) M a x ( E n e m y R e s o u r c e s D e s to r y e d ( a )) V ( a ) M a x ( O w n R e s o u r c e s D e s to r y e d ( a )) Goals, Standards And Preferences Goals Best envisioned as steps in a plan to accomplish a task Typically start with I will

Standards Typically socially-imposed guidelines for behavior Typically start with People should or People should not Preferences Ideals about the desired state of the world Typically start with I like or I dislike Goal Tree Goals Protect Grow Authority People Zealots Media WMD Programs Diplomacy Military Foreign Aid Black Market Economy Authority People Zealots Media WMD Programs Diplomacy Military Foreign Aid Black Market Economy Standards Tree Standards Task Relationship Balance Sensitivity To Life Scope Of Doing Good

Treatment of Out Groups Military Doctrine Exercise of Power Be Task Focused Be Relationship Focused Sensitive Not Sensitive Provide Help Help Enemies too Help Friends Help Neutrals Only Conventional Also Conventional Friend is Out Group Enemy is Out Group Neutral is Out Group Resolve Issues by Negotiation Bring About Greater Good Look After Narrower Interests Treat with Fairness and Justice Out Groups are Legitimate Targets

Use Conventional Attacks Use Asymmetric Attacks Be Controlling Be Open Preferences Tree + Preferences - Home Territory - Friendly Territory - Neutral Territory - Contested Territory + Enemy Territory - Own Resources - Allys Resources - Neutrals Resources + Enemys Resources - Authority - People - Zealots - Media - WMD Programs - Diplomacy Grow - Foreign Aid Maintain - Black Market Contain + Economy Reduce AI Perceptions Leader 1 Home Self Ally Leader 2

Territory 1 Territory 2 Ally Neutral Leader 3 Territory 3 Neutral Contested Leader 4 Enemy Enemy Self Organization Carrot Political Sticks Light Asymmetric Stick Asymmetric Stick Light Mil Stick Military Stick WMD Genocide Leader 5 LeaderSim AI Territory 4 Territory 5 Action 4

Action 3 Action 2 Action 1 Scope of LeaderSim Prototype Territories (3) Resources (3) Actions (5) Total (3x3x5xpayment levels) x no. of plies x N leaders (3) References www.seas.upenn.edu/~barryg/HBMR.html .Silverman, BG, Rees, R., Toth, J, et al., (2005, Jan).Athenas Prism A Diplomatic Strategy Role Playing Game for Generating Ideas and Exploring Alternatives, 1st Internatl Conf on Intel Anal Silverman, B.G., Johns, M., Bharathy, G. (2004, August). AgentBased Simulation of Leaders. ACASA/UPenn, Tech Report. Silverman, B.G., Johns, M., et al. (2002, May). Constructing Virtual Asymmetric Opponents from Data and Models in the Literature." 11th BRIMS, SISO. ScaleUp Territories (10) Resources (10) Actions (70) Total (10x10x70xpayment levels) x no. of plies x N leaders (10) Prototype LeaderSim Results Using threats, Yellow turns Red and Blue against one another Nash Equilib: 2 winners in conflictual world 60 60 50 Resources 50 40 30

20 10 40 30 20 10 0 1 21 41 61 81 101 121 141 Blue Yellow 1 Turn 21 41 61 Red Rare 3 in endgame. Yellow specialized away from Red and Blue. 60 60 40 50

20 10 101 121 Blue 141 161 Yellow Red Ys power is curtailed early. Y then uses treaties to negotiate peace. 50 30 81 Turn R e s o u rc e s Resources 0 161 40 30 20 10 0 1 21 41 61

Turn 81 101 Blue 121 Yellow 0 1 Red 21 41 61 Turn 81 101 121 Blue 141 161 Yellow Red

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