Housing and NDCs Key Findings from Phase 1 of the National Evaluation Ian Cole CRESR Sheffield Hallam University Outline of presentation The NDC programme Housing and the NDC paradigm... the impact of housing interventions neighbourhood renewal in a differentiated housing market the crucial role of household mobility outstanding challenges for NDC housing strategies.. ..and for the next phase of the evaluation. Presentation to NRU/DLGC 9 May 2006 The Different Emphasis of the NDC programme
Short term 10 year horizon (e.g. SRB typically 3 year schemes) Designed to Communities at the centre Distrusted by local residents produce Sustainable renewal Overly focused on physical regeneration Holistic approach for both people and Divorced from long-term public service providers Close working with LA and key agencies
Presentation to NRU/DLGC 9 May 2006 places Relative Area Deprivation and NDCs Presentation to NRU/DLGC 9 May 2006 Housing as the latecomer Not originally a key outcome area ..but included due to community concerns even if leverage over large scale investment is limited long lead-in time for housing strategies ..feeding some community frustration number of NDC projects increased by 78 per cent 2001 2004 ..but housing projects increased by 115 per cent!
Presentation to NRU/DLGC 9 May 2006 Housing in the NDC paradigm community-led emphasis often delayed agreement over approach focus on improving what there was, not creating something new...? NDC often became local catalyst for debates around stock transfer, new forms of investment, rise of buy to let markets.. ..and initially apart from parallel interventions eg HMR NDC as an 'inward-looking' not 'outward-looking' initiative? Presentation to NRU/DLGC 9 May 2006 Emphasis Focus Approach to housing stock
Priorities in housing mgmt Nature of links Priority to c'ty involvement Strengths Vulnerabilities Inward-looking?: NDC Agency Outward-looking?: HMR Structure Existing residents Neighbourhood Re-invest Potential residents Sub-region Remodel Accessibility/ support Managementcentred Inter-departmental High 'Marketing'/ 'rebranding'
Strategy-centred Inter-sectoral Visible impact Spill-over Displacement Market-centred C'ty support Delivery vehicle Low Presentation to NRU/DLGC 9 May 2006 Outcomes for Housing and the Physical Environment improving environment/levels of satisfaction improving housing quality/satisfaction (24) improving appearance of the area (19) green/open spaces (17)
reducing proportion of voids (12) reducing rates of out-migration (9) increasing house prices in relative terms (8) Source: NDC Delivery Plans 2004 Presentation to NRU/DLGC 9 May 2006 (25) Average dwelling price by type in NDC areas 2001 121,350 2004 Detached 161,050 68,450 Semi-detached 98,150 64,250 Terraced 69,500
149,050 Flats 166,650 0 Source: SDRC 40,000 80,000 120,000 160,000 Presentation to NRU/DLGC 9 May 2006 200,000 Average dwelling prices: NDC areas with highest and lowest prices 2004 290,650 Islington 249,900 277,850 H'smith & Fulham
Manchester 36,600 16,150 Hartlepool 34,300 21,600 0 Source: SDRC 40,000 2004 2001 80,000 120,000 160,000 200,000 240,000 280,000 320,000 Presentation to NRU/DLGC 9 May 2006 Neighbourhood renewal for differentiated housing markets (1) in London..... affordability dominates all impact on leaseholders risk of 'two tier' markets ..but receipts from land sales offer some leverage overcrowding more an issue than high void
rates Presentation to NRU/DLGC 9 May 2006 15.0 10.0 percentage London: 9 of 10 areas with highest rates of residential overcrowding 25.0 Over 1.0 persons per room NDC average 20.0 5.0 0.0 Tower Hamlets NDC Southwark NDC Newham NDC Birmingham A NDC Brent NDC Hackney NDC Haringey NDC Lambeth NDC Hammersmith & Fulham NDC Lewisham NDC
Neighbourhood renewal for differentiated housing markets (2) in Hartlepool..... 300 properties to be demolished ..but further demolition opposed by residents how to find up to 12 million for refurbishment? concerns about poor management in PRS extensive developable land why invest in the NDC area? poverty is 'widespread not concentrated' ..so where are the affluent to help produce the 'mix'? Presentation to NRU/DLGC 9 May 2006 Social sector renter Owner occupied Tenure in NDC areas 32 2002 NDC 2004 34 47
25 30 35 Percentage 40 45 50 55 Source: MORI/NOP Presentation to NRU/DLGC 9 May 2006 60 ..but big changes on the horizon..? Southwark: projected proportion of home owners (2011) 8% Delivery Plan objective (2011) 50% Brent: projected proportion of home owners 17% Delivery Plan objective 38% Newcastle
projected proportion of home owners 14% Delivery Plan objective 40-50% Presentation to NRU/DLGC 9 May 2006 Impact of housing interventions... too soon to tell..? disruption for many communities but intensive management has been selectively introduced market change and mobility more telling than specific interventions? Presentation to NRU/DLGC 9 May 2006 Additionality of NDC expenditure and outputs Example output Additionality Ratio Per capita NDC spend 2000/01 to 2003/4
Housing and Environment (333) Education (244) Crime and disorder (164) Worklessness (154) Health (149) 8,000 Homes improved or built .52 9,500 adults obtaining qualifications .82 70,000 young people involved in diversion activities .64 17,000 received job training .82 104 new or improved health facilities
Presentation to NRU/DLGC 9 May 2006 .85 Perceptions of the area are improving (2002-2004) NDC Comparator -14 Area worse than 2 years ago (a) -9 6 Satisfied with area 1 -20 -15 -10 -5 Percentage point change Presentation to NRU/DLGC 9 May 2006 0
5 10 Satisfied with landlord (b) Satisfied with sate of repair of home (a) Satisfied with accommodation (a) Limited impact on satisfaction with accommodation, repair and landlords 81 2002 NDC 2004 82 87 Comparator 88 69 NDC 71 77
Source: MORI/NOP Presentation to NRU/DLGC 9 May 2006 ..but the impact of inward and outward mobility is significant 16 Inmovers Outmovers Owner Occupiers 48 41 16-24 18 29 NVQ4+ 31 61 Economically Active 78 0 10 20
30 40 50 Percentage Presentation to NRU/DLGC 9 May 2006 60 70 80 90 the circumstances of outmovers from NDC after 2002 38 Owner occupier 48 41 Social sector renter 2002 2004 31
0 10 20 30 Percentage Presentation to NRU/DLGC 9 May 2006 40 50 60 the impact of mobility.... does it show latent demand for affordable home ownership locally... or is it a sign of getting on, by getting out? Presentation to NRU/DLGC 9 May 2006 Housing in Phase 1 of NDC evaluation
discernible shift from environmental uplifts and housing management focus to investment, restructuring and tenure change.. synthesis emerging between 'inward' and 'outward' approaches? more 'market aware' approaches being developed .. ..but transformational change will depend on patterns of mobility as much as quality of interventions Presentation to NRU/DLGC 9 May 2006 and some outstanding 'challenges'..
scale of investment required for transformational change while managing local expectations the development of intermediate housing options.. the potential threats to community cohesion in segmented housing markets partnership approach with LAs, RSLs, HMR, RHBs EP etc is essential for NDCs ... ..but not a meeting of equals? and clashing time frames for delivery.. is 10 years long enough? Presentation to NRU/DLGC 9 May 2006 and challenges for Phase 2 of the evaluation... use 2006 and 2008 MORI household surveys to map changing profile of in-migrants ..but cannot follow out-movers six case study NDCs will offer detailed monitoring in different market contexts need to explore changing circumstances of particular communities over time
success of new residential developments is key but inevitable time lag between changing the landscape ....and changing the image. Presentation to NRU/DLGC 9 May 2006 Housing and NDCs Key Findings from Phase 1 of the National Evaluation Ian Cole CRESR Sheffield Hallam University
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