Europe from the Atlantic to the Black Sea: where and how does Iceland fit in? William Wallace Haskoli Islands 12 June 2009 What is Europe, where is Europe? EU and NATO as increasingly defining Europe: pressures from weaker states on eastern and
southern borders for inclusion A continent without clear borders: eastern and southern borderlands Europe in a globalised world: 12% of world population, 25% of world production, 40 states out of 192 UN members Europe as a declining region or as a satisfied and secure region? The rise, or recovery, of Asia
Transformation of Europe since 1989
(re-)emergence of states from former Soviet bloc: 7 Warsaw Pact states plus Yugoslavia & Albania have become 22-23 Shift eastwards, still under way Expansion of NATO and EU where should these stop? EU from 12 to 27; and on to 35 and more?
Gas and oil dependence, on east and south Migration pressures, from east and south
Europe as a dynamic region: illusions of stability, the pace of change The Europe of our grandparents: half-buried memories
and conflicts How stable are current borders? How permanent are some of Europes weaker states? Moldova, Bosnia, Macedonia Belarus, Ukraine? Transformation of Europes economy: industry moving east, technology and services in the West Popular resistance to immigration; reality of urban change over last century Transformation of European society over past generation
What sort of Europe will Iceland prefer?
Inputs and outputs: what you get out of the EU, but also what you put in Economic autonomy or integration: the shifting balance Dilemmas for small states: how to play the game, and on
how many tables at once Do small states benefit from stronger multilateral institutions? Fault lines and potential coalitions: large state and small, north and south, west and east North sea interests, Mediterranean and Black Sea interests: how far east will Icelandic interests stretch? The enlargement agenda
The Western Balkans: weak states, needing external anchors Turkey: NATO member, EU aspiration as the external anchor for domestic reform The new Zwischenlnde: Ukraine, Moldova, (Belarus), Georgia, Armenia (Azerbaijan). The Eastern Partnership: empty gesture or strategic move?
The EEA Associates? Norway, Iceland, Switzerland The Mediterranean Union. Morocco as a Muslim partner? Israel as a Western state? Is there an end point to enlargement? Council of Europe, OSCE What is NATO now for?
Defence of the North Atlantic area? European region
as largely secure and peaceful: NATO, EU and Western Balkans. But Russia: partner or threat? Security around the frontiers of Europe? Eastern enlargement and Russia; Mediterranean partnership & the Muslim world To maintain US leadership in Western security To provide a toolbox in support of US/Western strategy outside the European region To form the core of a wider alliance of democracies?
Underlying tension between US-led West and Europe as a part of the Western alliance: is this sustainable? The EU at 50: mid-life crisis, or healthy middle age?
The shadow of the past: Old Believers and new Pragmatists. The Monnet model of functional integration, as an elite project
EC-6 and EU-27: nostalgia for core Europe, reluctant adjustment to enlargement Economic and security success, popular disillusionment taking it all for granted Is European society in crisis? US neo-conservatives image of secular decline into Eurabia The EU as a mature community? Unloved, but necessary to manage globalization
The EU agenda
Institutional dilemmas: after the Lisbon Treaty? European economic governance: how much further integration is needed? Single currency, financial regulation, fiscal coordination Coping with recession: can national preferences be resisted? Political leadership and strategic direction: who sets the agenda? France, Germany, UK
Can European publics be led? Populism and consumerism, identity politics and migration, the end of deference and mistrust of elites Internal Security, external borders
Open borders, cross-national crime and terror Order and justice as the core of sovereignty: obstacles to cooperation The development of European bodies: Europol, Eurojust,
Frontex Mass travel, mass migration: external border control. Whose responsibilities, whose costs? Is a common immigration policy manageable? External pressures, internal resistance A common foreign policy?
Do European states share a common view of world order? Or a strategic culture? Can European states avoid developing global policies? Washingtons agenda, Europes response: is CFSP compatible with NATO? 3 states, 6, or 27? Imbalance of resources and capabilities Strategic relationships: USA, Russia, the Arab/Muslim world (but China and India?)
Is Africa Europes problem? Sovereignty and status, intelligence and budgets What kind of Iceland in what sort of world?
Global recession, global warming, global epidemics: the new insecurity agenda for a less benign world
Choices for small states: marginalization, specialization (offshore niches), or participation US leadership vs European partnership Identity politics or integration? Nostalgia or globalization? North Korea as the model sovereign state International (and domestic) politics as a continuous negotiation among unsatisfactory choices The Nordic model: small states, moderate autonomy and international responsibility
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