Aug. 31, 2005 Introduction to Homeland Security Stephen

Aug. 31, 2005 Introduction to Homeland Security Stephen

Aug. 31, 2005 Introduction to Homeland Security Stephen M. Maurer Goldman School of Public Policy Philosophy An Inherently Interdisciplinary Problem Security Technology vs. Human Factors

Convenience Philosophy Examples: The Encryption Debate Predicting The Aircraft Threat Security Richard Clarke FAA Convenience

Philosophy Disclaimer: Social Science & Values Mechanics Requirements: White Paper/Policy Analysis Team Exercise Attendance & Participation Syllabus: Terrorism WMD

Cybersecurity Mechanics Course Web Site: http://www.cs.washington.edu/education/courses/csep590/ CurrentQtr/ Please sign up for E-Mail and Wiki! Special Night: Tuesday, September 13, 2005. Introduction to Homeland Security Aug. 31, 2005 Lecture 1:

The Logic of Terrorism Stephen M. Maurer Goldman School of Public Policy Dark Forces? The Rational Actor Hypothesis Embarrassments to the Model The Socialists Patients Collective (1975) Suicide Youth Alternative Explanations Religion?

Sigmund Freud (1856 1939) Karl Popper (1902 1994) Romanticism, Napoleon & Hitler Role of the Individual A Terrible Beauty Introduction The Invisible Man (1897) This Lecture History - Three Waves of Terrorism Goals & Results Next Lecture Terrorism-as-Warfare

Capabilities & Defenses Beginnings Antecedents Mucius Scaevola (505 BC) The Sicarii (AD 66-73) The Assassins (11th 13th Century AD) 1790 1850 State Terror (1793-94) Romanticism (ca. 1800) Primacy of Genius Revolution Suicide Karl Heinzen (1849)

Beginnings Technology Black Powder Dynamite Revolvers The First Wave Overview 1870s to World War I Russia Anarchism (France & Italy) Periphery (Ireland, America, Balkans)

The First Wave: Russia The First Wave: Russia Peoples Will (1878 1881) 500 members, 50 active. Widespread popular support Assassinated Governor-General of St. Petersburg, Tsarist Political Police Chief, Czar Alexander II The Age of Scrupulous Terror Goals

No Other Choice Revolution: Destroying and Replacing the Government Seeding Revolution By Example? Concessions The First Wave: Russia Inertia Revenge, Prison Breaks, Inability to Surrender Results Promoting Reaction Countermeasures Informers and Spies Fragility and Persistence of Terrorism

The First Wave: Russia Social Revolutionary Terrorism Combat Organization Professionalization Tradecraft & Technology Expropriations $510m/year The First Wave: Russia History: 1901:

1902: 1903: 1904: 1905: 1906: 1907: 1908: 1909: 1910: 1911: Minister of Education Minister of Interior Two Governors (1903)

Interior Minister Plehve and Two Governors 54 Assassinations, including Grand Duke 82 Assassinations (+ 362 Appropriations) 71 Assassinations 3 Assassinations 2 Assassinations 1 Assassination Organization ceases to exist but Stolypin assassinated The First Wave: Russia Results: Matching Terror Against a Weakened State

All Ministers are human and they want to live. -- Chief of Okhrana State Terror Nevertheless Prevails Countermeasures: 1904: Combat Organization Deputy Evno Azef provides information needed to arrest and convict his boss. 1912: Okhrana has 26,000 paid agents and a staff of 50,000 The First Wave: Russia

Marxist Critique The classes whom the state serves will always find new men the mechanism remains intact and continues to function. Far deeper is the confusion that terrorist attempts introduce into the ranks of the working masses. - Leon Trotsky The First Wave: Russia Anti-Bolshevik Terror (1917) Attacks on Bolsheviks & Counterrevolution Attacks on German Diplomats & Derailing Peace Talks Countermeasures Matching Terror Against A Weak State

The True Meaning of Asymmetric Warfare The First Wave: Russia Goals: Revolution Destroying and Replacing the State Obtaining Concessions Blocking Peace Talks Inertia The First Wave: Russia Countermeasures: Liberalization

Informers Censorship Mass Arrests Internal Exile The First Wave: Anarchism Anarchism The First Wave: Anarchism International Anarchist Congress (London 1881)

The Anarchist Myth Individuals, Not Groups The First Wave: Anarchism Examples: 1891: Ravachol bombs homes of judge, prosecutor and a barracks. Executed after waiter informs police. 1893: Auguste Vaillant tries to throw bomb in

Chamber of Deputies. Within days, Deputies overwhelmingly pass legislation to criminalize anarchists, restrict press, and increase police force. 1894: Vaillant is executed. Police conduct 2000 raids on known anarchists and sympathizers on New Years Day. The First Wave: Anarchism Propaganda by Deed Willingness to Die & Willingness to Kill Results

The Battle for Public Sympathy Legislation and Repression Police Surveillance & Mass Arrests Police Exaggeration & Provocation Anarchist Orthodoxy The First Wave: Anarchism Goals: Revolution Destroying and Replacing the State Obtaining Concessions Blocking Peace Talks Publicity & Propaganda Inertia

The First Wave: Anarchism Countermeasures: Liberalization Public Opinion Informers Censorship Mass Arrests Internal Exile Surveillance Criminalizing Advocacy The First Wave

Periphery The First Wave: Periphery Ireland (1870s - 1880s) History Clerkenwell Explosion (1867) Phoenix Park Murders (1882) Countermeasures Rewards and informers Foreign Sponsors United States

The First Wave: Periphery Molly Maguires (1870s) Haymarket Square Bombing (1886) Assassination of Frank Steunenberg (1905) Los Angeles Times Bombing (1910) ~ 100 bombings (1905-1910) Immigrant centered, usually economic. The First Wave: Periphery Spain

Labor Violence Armenia (1896) Inviting Foreign Intervention The Balkans (1914) Terrorisms Biggest Result? Blocking Concessions A Russian Connection? The First Wave: Periphery Goals: Revolution Destroying and Replacing the State Publicity & Propaganda Obtaining Concessions

Blocking Peace Talks Forcing Withdrawal Blocking Concessions/Provoking a Crackdown Inviting Foreign Intervention Economic Demands Inertia The First Wave: Periphery Countermeasures: Liberalization Public Opinion Rewards Informers

Censorship Mass Arrests Internal Exile Surveillance Criminalizing Advocacy Mass Reprisals Interlude: 1915 - 1960 Interlude: 1915 1960 Between the Wars: 1918 - 1939

Terrorism Between the Wars Terrorism in the Era of Mass Parties Technology Automatic Weapons Terrorism Between the Wars Ireland (1916-1921) Raising Cost of Occupation Supporting an Organized Rising Terrorism as Counterintelligence Ireland (193839) The German Connection

Terrorism Between the Wars Terrorism Between the Wars Spain & Portugal India Poland Japan Balkans Totalitarianism and Terror Terrorism Between the Wars State-Sponsorship

Russia & Germany Emigr Assassinations Italy King Alexander of Yugoslavia (1934) Rosselli Brothers (France, 1936) Supplying Weapons and Explosives (France, 1930s) Bulgaria Macedonian Terrorism (1930s) Providing a Shield Against The State Terrorism Between the Wars Crime Macedonia

Contract murder, narcotics Bulgaria ($2-3 million) Extortion, state sponsorship Terrorism Between the Wars Goals: Revolution Destroying and Replacing the State Publicity & Propaganda Obtaining Concessions Blocking Peace Talks Forcing Withdrawal Blocking Concessions/Provoking a Crackdown Inviting Foreign Intervention

Economic Demands Supporting Conventional/Guerrilla Operations Crime State Sponsorship Inertia Interlude: 1915 1960 World War II: 1939 - 1945 World War II World War II

Technology Plastic explosive and timing devices History Heydrich & Lidice Terror in the West Terror in the East World War II Goals: Revolution Destroying and Replacing the State Publicity & Propaganda Obtaining Concessions Forcing Withdrawal

Blocking Concessions/Provoking a Crackdown Inviting Foreign Intervention Economic Demands Supporting Conventional/Guerrilla Operations Crime State Sponsorship Inertia World War II Countermeasures: Liberalization Public Opinion Rewards

Informers Censorship Mass Arrests Mass Reprisals Internal Exile Surveillance Criminalizing Advocacy Military Tribunals Torture The Post-War: 1945 - 1960 The Post-War

Post-War Palestine (1943-47) Cyprus (1955-58) Aden (1964-67) Algiers (1956-57) Vietnam (1950s 1960s) The Post-War Goals: Revolution Destroying and Replacing the State Publicity & Propaganda Obtaining Concessions

Forcing Withdrawal Blocking Concessions/Prompting a Crackdown Inviting Foreign Intervention Economic Demands Supporting Conventional/Guerrilla Operations Crime State Sponsorship Holding Territory Inertia The Post-War Countermeasures: Liberalization Public Opinion

Rewards Informers Censorship Mass Arrests Mass Reprisals Internal Exile Surveillance Criminalizing Advocacy Military Tribunals Armed Confrontation Torture The Second Wave: 1960s to 1980s

The Second Wave: 1960s 1980s Technology: Television and Hijackings Antitank and Antiaircraft missiles Truck & Car Bombs Latin America: 1960 - Present The Second Wave: Latin America Goals Lack of Alternatives The Failure of Guerilla Warfare

Urban Guerillas. Membership 50 (Tupamaros Uruguay Early) 1500 2500 (Shining Path Peru) 3000 (Tupamaros Uruguary Peak) 5000 (ERP Argentina) 6-7000 (FARC Colombia) Financing State Sponsorship, Crime & Big Budget Terrorism The Second Wave: Latin America Argentina: Mononeros, Peoples Revolutionary Party, 8 smaller groups. Peru: Shining Path, Tupac Amaru Revolutionary Movement

Brazil: National Liberation Action, Revolutionary Popular Vanguard, Revolutionary Movement of 8 October. Colombia: FARC, Army of National Liberation, Moviemento 19 Abril. El Salvador: Farabundo Marti Popular Forces of Liberation. Guatemala: Rebel Armed Forces, 9 smaller groups. Mexico: 23d September Communist League, Peoples Armed Revolutionary Forces, 7 smaller groups. Nicaragua: Sandinistas. Uraguay: Tupamaros. Venezuala: Armed Forces of National Liberation (FALN) The Second Wave: Latin America Results

Failure of Urban Guerilla Analogy Reactionary Governments Tactics Attacks on Army Installations Attacks on Foreigners Crime Kidnapping and extortion from foreign businesses. Bank robbery. Tax on Coca farmers; protection money from landlords and drug lords. Drug trafficking. Stock & Legitimate Businesses Latin America Goals:

Replacing Destroying and Replacing the State Publicity & Propaganda Obtaining Concessions Forcing Withdrawal Blocking Concessions/Provoking a Crackdown Inviting Foreign Intervention Economic Demands Supporting Conventional/Guerrilla Operations Crime State Sponsorship Holding Territory Attacking Military Units Inertia

Latin America Countermeasures: Liberalization Public Opinion Rewards Informers Censorship Mass Arrests Mass Reprisals Internal Exile Surveillance Criminalizing Advocacy Military Tribunals Torture

Armed Confrontation European Terrorism: 1960s 1980s The Second Wave: European Terrorism European Terrorism The New Left & Urban Guerillas Nationalism The Second Wave: European Terrorism France (Leftist): Action Directe, Factions Armees Revolutionnaires Libanaises

(FARL), Cellules Communistes Combattantes (CCC). France (Separatist): Breton Armee Republicaine Bretonne (ARB), Corsican Front de la Liberation Naitonale de la Corse (FLNC), French Basque Iparretarrak. Germany (Leftist): Red Army Faction, Red Cells, Red Zora, Autonomous Groups. Italy (Fascist): Armed Revolutionary Nuclei, Black Order, Mussolini Action Squads, New Order, Revolutionary Action Movement, Revolutionary Fascist Nuclei. Italy (Leftist): Red Brigades, Front Line, Armed Proletarian Nuclei, October XXII Circle, Partisan Action Groups, Permanent Struggle, Workers Vanguard, Communisti Organisti per la Liberazione del Proletariat (COLP) The Second Wave: European Terrorism Ireland (Separatist): Official IRA, Provisional IRA, Irish National Liberation

Army. Ireland (Counter-Separatist): Ulster Defence Association, Ulster Volunteer Force. Spain (Separatist): ETA Spain (Leftist): First of October Anti-Fascist Resistance Group (GRAPO) Greece: Revolutionary Organization 17 November; Revolutinary Popular Struggle. Canada: Front for Liberation of Quebec, Quebec Liberation Army (ALQ). United States: SDS & SDS Splinters: October League, Revolutionary Union, New American Movement, Vencervernos Brigades, Red Guerilla Family, New Years Gang, Weathermen. United States (Other Groups): Black Panther Party, New World Liberation Front, SLA, FALN.

The Second Wave: European Terrorism Three Examples: Baader-Meinhof Red Brigades IRA Baader-Meinhof Gang Membership 20 50 Active Members 100 Members 1600 Supporters

Goals Provoking a Crackdown Results Financing Bank Robbery & State Sponsorship History Baader-Meinhof Gang 1968: Firebombing; Baader & 3 others arrested.

1970: Baader escapes from prison; multiple bank robberies; five arrests; firefight with police; group renames itself Red Army Faction. 1971: Arrest; firefight. 1972: Five bombings against US military bases and German police targets; authorities enact new police powers and create special GSG-9 unit.

Baader is arrested in raid on bomb factory. Meinhof is arrested after sympathizer reports her to authorities. Third leader arrested. 1974: Mains dies in prison following hunger strike. RAF splinter group assassinates President of Berlin Supreme Court the next day. Public outrage sabotages effort to portray Mains as a martyr. Government builds special prison for group. Baader-Meinhof Gang 1975: Baader, Meinhof, and others are tried. RAF kidnaps CDU chairman who is freed when five terrorists are flown to Yemen.

splinter group seizes Stockholm embassy. Government refuses negotiate after two employees are murdered. Two terrorists are and three arrested. RAF to killed 1976: Meinhof commits suicide. Four RAF women prisoners escape. 1977:

RAF attacks oil tank on NATO airbase. Assassinates chief federal prosecutor and head of Deutsche Bank. Kidnaps and murders union leader Hans Martin Schleyer. PFLP-SOG hijack Lufhansa flight to Somalia. GSG-9 rescues hostages, killing one terrorist, and capturing three. Baader and 3 companions commit suicide. 26 firebombing attacks on German sites in France, Italy, and Greece. 1978: Four members arrested. 1979: Two members arrested, one killed. RAF fails to kill Supreme Allied

Commander using roadside bomb. Baader-Meinhof Gang 1981: Car bomb at USAF base. RAF fails to assassinate Commander of US Forces, Europe using RPG. 1982: German civilians notice weapons cache. Four arrests follow. 1984:

RAF blows up NATO oil pipeline. 1985: RAF murders industrialist; bombs multiple US bases. Bombs Frankfurt airport killing three. Sends letter bomb to Bayer. Car bombs two US airbases killing four. 1986: RAF murders German industrialist and Senior Foreign Ministry official. 1988: Attempt to kill Minister of Finance fails. 1989:

RAF murders head of Deutsche Bank. 1991: RAF assassinates government official in charge of privatizing East German state property. Fires AK-47 at US embassy. Baader-Meinhof Gang 1993: Destroys new prison with explosives. Firefight kills member and GSG-9 officer.

1997: German authorities announce RAF is no longer a serious threat. Former sympathizers are disillusioned with its methods. Decline of communism makes replacing members hard. 1998: RAF announces it is disbanding: We are stuck in a dead end. Lessons Baader-Meinhof Gang

Terrorist Groups Do Not Form Without a Critical Mass of Sympathizers. Maintaining Invisibility Maintaining Extremism Once Created, Terrorism Persists for Long Periods. Futility is the best defense. Casualties Recruitment Symbolic Failures A Generational Cycle? Life Goes On Cf., US Murder Rate (~ 20,500/year).

Red Brigades Membership 50 Active Members, Organized in 5-6 member brigades 450 Members Large Number of Sympathizers. Goals Replacing the State An Armed Avante Garde Working Within Proletariat to Establish A Party Destructuralization of the Capitalist Economy Results Funding Extortion, ransom.

Red Brigades History 1970 1973: Kidnaps factory managers to force better terms and conditions. 1974: Kidnaps and later releases public prosecutor. Kills two right-wing political party members. Nine founding members are arrested by years end. 1975:

Leader escapes and is recaptured. Wife is killed in while holding millionaire hostage. 1976 Assassinate public prosecutor. 1977 Kidnap shipping owner and release for 1.5 bn lire ransom. Assassinate Turin lawyers association president and editor of La Stampa.

Red Brigades 1978 public Murder senior judge and officer of Carabinieri. Kidnap and later murder former CDU leader Aldo Moro. Massive protests result. Government refuses demands. 1979 Group splits over murder of Communist Shop steward, dissidents claim leadership is out of touch with working class. Several members arrested later in the year.

1980: Leads Leading member arrested, later turns states evidence. to arrest of 85 more members. Passage of Pentiti (those who have repented) Legislation leads to 360 additional arrests/indictments by years end. Red Brigades kidnap judge but release him after government agrees to close a prison and broadcast revolutionary tracts. Red Brigades 1981:

groups. CDU politician kidnapped and released after ransom is paid. Most of Milan group arrested later in the year. Brigades kidnap NATO General James Dozier who is later rescued. Failure causes Red Brigades to split into four splinter Severe crackdown puts most of group leaders in jail. Many turned informer. Internal schisms and ideological quarrels proliferate. Grew isolated from working class base and public opinion. Informers and defections proliferate. 1984: Assassination of Sinai Peacekeeping Force director.

1985: Failed assassination of economic adviser to Prime Minister. Current: Inactive. Estimated 50 members. Lessons: Organization vs. Individuals Complex vs. Simple Operations Bombings Assassination

Kidnapping Hijacking Persistence of Terrorism Informers Futility, Casualties, Symbolic Setbacks & Generational Effects. Constraints on Violence Self-image Sympathizers State Sponsors Red Brigades The Second Wave:

European Terrorism IRA Mainland Campaign Nationalism and Ideology US Donations & Organized Crime Bank Robbery, Money Laundering, Extortion Goals and Results Membership 5-12 Member Autonomous Service Units Large number of sympathizers. History IRA Mainland

Attacks 1971: 1 Bombing. Civilian target, no injuries. 1972: 1 Bombing. Military barracks. Padre and six civilians killed. 1973: ~ 50 Bombings, including several large car bombs. 5 on a single day. Military and civilian targets. 2 killed.

1974: ~ 60 Bombings, 1 shooting. Military and civilian targets, including car bombs, parcel bombs, motor coach carrying soldiers families, and multiple pubs. 40+ deaths, including at least 5 civilians. Government passes anti-terrorism legislation. 1975: ~ 15 Bombings, 2 shootings. Most violence between September and November. Police spot suspicious behavior leading to shootout. 6 civilians killed, including Ross McWhirter. Balcombe Street Gang

surrenders after 6 day siege when SAS arrive on scene. IRA Mainland Attacks 1976: 4 Bombings, 1 shooting. 1 civilian killed during getaway. 1977: 8 Bombings, no casualties. 1979:

Conservative MP assassinated. 1981: 5 Bombings. Military and civilian targets. 5 killed. 1982: 2 Bombings. 13 soldiers and police killed. 1983: arrest 2 Bombings. Discovery of explosives cache in October leads to

of two ASUs. Harrods explosion in December kills 3 police and 3 civilians. IRA announces that attack was unauthorized and that it regrets the deaths. 1984: 1 Bombing. IRA bombs Conservative Party Convention. Five killed, including 1 MP. 1985: Police foil plot to bomb 12 seaside resorts. IRA Mainland

Attacks 1988: Bomb demolishes barracks, killing 1 soldier. 1989: 3 Bombs explode at barracks, no fatalities. 1990: 6 Bombings, 2 shootings. Targets include London Underground, Railway platforms, military van, a former minister, and a government official. 3 soldiers, 1 former minister, and 1 civilian die. Bomb near

London stock exchange causes massive damage. 1991: 26 Bombings (includes mortars and firebombs). Targets include No. 10 Downing, London underground trains, shopping malls, and financial centers. 1 civilian and 2 IRA killed. Hoax warnings add to disruption. 1992: 16 Bombings (includes firebombs) and 2 shootings. Targets include No. 10 Downing, Underground stations, pubs. Car and very large (~1,000 pound) bombs are introduced. Gunmen force taxi driver to

deliver bomb to No. 10 Downing. 5 civilians killed. 1 arrest. IRA Mainland Attacks 1993: ~ 20+ Bombings (includes firebombs). 3 civilians killed. Targets include stores, shopping districts, London Underground stations, and railway lines. 2200 pound van bomb detonates in The City after warning. Causes 350m+ in property damage and kills press photographer. Hoax warnings add to disruption. 1994: 1996:

~ 17 Bombings (includes mortars and firebombs), arson. Targets include stores and multiple attacks on Heathrow Airport. Hoax messages add to disruption. IRA declares ceasefire. 8 Bombings. 3 killed, including 1 IRA. IRA breaks ceasefire with massive truck bomb in Docklands garage. Despite advance warning, two are killed and property damage exceeds 150 million. IRA detonates 3,000 pound fertilizer bomb in Manchester shopping center. Despite advance warning, 200 are injured. Hoax warnings add to disruption. IRA Mainland Attacks

1997: 6 Bombings. No one killed. Targets consist of rail stations and motorways. Hoax warnings add to disruption. Hoax warning at Grand National produces widespread outrage. Shadow Home Secretary Jack Straw declares that IRA had put themselves beyond the pale. 1998: Northern Ireland votes 71.2% to accept Good Friday Agreement. 94% in Irish republic vote in favor. Real IRA splinter group forms.

2000: Real IRA carries out 2 Bombings and fire an antitank rocket at MI 6 headquarters. No one is killed. Targets include bridge, London Underground station, and MI 6 headquarters. 2001: 5 Bombings. No one is killed. Targets include BBC, postal station, and London Underground station. One car bombing occurs after September 11. IRA Sustained, High-Level Violence.

But: Life Goes On October 15, 1940: 540 tons of explosives, 900 fires, 400 dead. Persistence Sanctuary & State Sponsorship Crime Why Did The Violence Fluctuate? UK Police Response to Ongoing Negotiations Internal IRA Politics Obtaining Concessions The Commitment Problem Good Friday Agreement (1998)

The Second Wave: European Terrorism Constraints on Violence: Irish Republic Irish Population in USA - September 11, 2001 Irish Population in Britain - July, 2005 State Response Anti-Terrorism Legislation is (Imperfectly) Effective Video Surveillance. State Sponsorship Part 1 Soviet & Proxy Support

Training Camps (1960s Early 1980s) USSR, Cuba, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Bulgaria, East Germany. Clients include IRA, Red Brigades, Baader-Meinhof, ETA. 1500 guerillas/year trained. Terrorist Summits Cuba 1966; Lebanon 1972; Yugoslavia 1978; Lisbon 1981. Soviet Arms Shipments Examples: PFLP (1970), Official IRA (1972). State Sponsorship Part 1 Sponsor Goals

Tit-for-Tat Destabilizing The West Preoccupying The West Communist Bloc Politics Romanticism & Institutional Inertia Drawbacks Complicates Foreign Relations Unpredictable and Dangerous Victory Would Not Help USSR Failure Discredits Traditional Parties Terrorism May Spread to Sponsor & Allies Inability to Terminate Relationship Carlos (1982)

The Second Wave: European Terrorism Professionalization & Persistence Carlos & East Germany Effect on Terrorist Agenda When there is too much money, unnecessary things are bought, first a record player and a television set, then expensive suits and cars, and in the end you look like something straight out of Playboy - Anonymous German Terrorist Goals: The Second Wave:

European Terrorism Revolution Destroying and Replacing the State Publicity & Propaganda Obtaining Concessions Forcing Withdrawal Blocking Concessions/Provoking a Crackdown Inviting Foreign Intervention Economic Demands Supporting Conventional/Guerrilla Operations Crime State Sponsorship Holding Territory Attacking Military Units Destroying the Economy

Inertia The Second Wave: European Terrorism Countermeasures: Liberalization Public Opinion Rewards Informers Censorship Mass Arrests Mass Reprisals Internal Exile Surveillance

Criminalizing Advocacy Military Tribunals Torture Armed Confrontation International Terrorism: 1960s 1980s The Second Wave: International Terrorism Growth of International Terrorism Mid-East Conflict Failure of Terrorism Inside Israel Press Bias Favoring International Events.

Membership ~ 500 Members (PFLP, ALF, Abu Nidal) ~ 50 Members (PFLP-SOG) Financing State Sponsorship Professionalization of Terrorism Terrorist Entrepreneurs (Carlos, Abu Nidal) History International Terrorism: 1968 - 1990 1968:

- PFLP terrorists hijack El Al flight from Rome. - PFLP machine guns El Al Airliner in Athens, killing 1. 1969 - Terrorists attack El Al plane at Zurich, killing 4. - PFLP hijacks TWA flight after it leaves Rome. - Al Fatah throws hand grenades at El Al office in Brussels. - Hand grenade attack on El Al office in Athens kills 1. International Terrorism: 1968 - 1990 1970:

killed. - Unsuccessful attempt to hijack El Al plane from Munich. 1 Israeli - PFLP attacks El Al bus at Munich Airport, kills 1. - PFLP blows up Swiss Airliner by accident, killing 47. - Attack on Israeli Embassy in Paraguay kills 2. - PPSF hijacks Greek plane. - PFLP hijacks TWA, SwissAir, Pan Am, and BOAC planes carrying 400 passengers to Dawsons Field in Jordan. Attempted hijacking of El Al flight fails. Passengers released after Swiss and British governments give in. - PFLP hijacks BOAC plane from Bombay to Rome. - Jordan expels PLO.

International Terrorism: 1968 - 1990 1971: - Black September assassinates Jordanian Prime Minister in Cairo. 1972: - Belgian airliner is hijacked to Tel Aviv. Israeli commandos storm plane, freeing hostages. One passenger and five soldiers are killed. - PFLP and Japanese Red Army kill 27 civilians at Lod Airport. - Munich Olympics Massacre. Eight Black September terrorists take 11 Israeli athletes hostage. Nine hostages and five terrorist are killed. - Letter bomb to Israeli embassy in London kills 1. - Al Fatah group hijacks Lufthansa flight from Beirut to Zagreb.

International Terrorism: 1968 - 1990 1973: - ~ 12 Israeli Wrath of God Assassinations - Black September terrorists murder US ambassador to Sudan. - Black September terrorists murder Israeli businessman in Cyprus. - Terrorists attack El Al office in Rome, killing 1. - Two Arabs send letter bombs to Israelis living in Britain and Holland. - Black September terrorists attack passenger terminal in Athens, kill 3. - Japanese Airlines Flight hijacked to Benghazi and destroyed. - Five terrorists attack Saudi Embassy in Paris. - Two terrorists take three Jewish immigrants hostage aboard a train to

Vienna. - Three terrorists hijack plane from New Dehli to Abu Dhabi. - 5 terrorists attack terminal and destroy airliner at Rome airport killing 30 including 4 senior Moroccan officials and 14 American oil company employees. Terrorists take five Italians hostage aboard Lufthansa airliner and hijack it to Beirut, Athens, and ultimately Kuwait. 1 hostage is killed. Terrorists are allowed to escape to unknown destination. PLO denies responsibility. - Terrorist bomb Pan Am office at Rome airport, killing 32. International Terrorism: 1968 - 1990

1974: - PLO makes conciliatory statement implying Israels right to exist. PFLP, DFLP, ALF, PFLP-GC, PPSF form Rejection Front. Abu Nidal (who does not join the Front) begins assassination campaign against PLO officials. - PFLP-GC seize Qirayat Shemona. 18 Israelis killed in rescue attempt. - PFLP terrorists seize school at Maa lot. 27 Israelis are killed in rescue attempt. - PFLP raids Shamir Kibbutz. Four terrorists and several Israelis are killed. - Fatah terrorists attempt to land in Israel by boat. All are killed, along with three Israelis. - Rejection Front hijackers hijack a British Airliner at Dubai. 1 German passenger is killed.

International Terrorism: 1968 - 1990 1975: PFLP/Carlos attacks Orly airport twice using rockets. Police frustrate second attack, which ends with Carlos seizing ten hostages in bathroom. Terrorists are allowed to take Air France flight to Iraq. PFLP-SOG/Carlos take OPEC Ministers Hostage. Saudi Arabia and Iran pay $20m+ ransom. 1976: - RAF and PFLP seize Air France airliner with 258 passengers aboard. Israeli commandos storm the plane at Entebbe. 1 soldier and 3 passengers die. - PFLP and JAL terrorists attack passenger terminal in Istanbul, killing

4. 1977 - Terrorists hijack Lufthansa aircraft. Pilot is killed. German special forces storm plane in Mogadishu, rescuing hostages, capturing 3 terrorists and killing one. International Terrorism: 1968 - 1990 1978: - Al Fatah seaborne raid into Israel kills 26 civilians. - PFLP open fire on El Al passengers in Paris. 2 Frenchmen are killed. - PFLP attacks El Al crew bus in London, killing 1.

1979: - Attack on El Al passengers at Brussels Airport, no one killed. 1980: - El Al employee killed in Istanbul. - Attack on synagogue in Paris kills four. 1981: - Attack on synagogue in Vienna kills two.

1982: - Abu Nidal terrorists critically injure Israeli Ambassador to UK. - Abu Nidal terrorists attack synagogue in Brussels. - Abu Nidal terrorists attack synagogue in Rome, killing 1. 1983: - Truck bomb on US embassy in Beirut kills 63. - Simultaneous truck bombs kill 242 American and 55 French troops. International Terrorism: 1968 - 1990 1985:

- Abu Nidal terrorists bomb British Airways Office in Madrid, killing 1. - Abu Nidal terrroists assassinate British cultural affairs officer in Athens. - Abu Nidal terrorists assassinate British official in Bombay. - Grenade attack on Rome Caf. - PLO kills 3 Israeli tourists in Cyprus. - TWA flight from Athens to Rome is hijacked to Beirut by Hezballah terrorists. 145 passengers and 8 crew are taken hostage. 1 American sailor is murdered. Hostages are released after Israel frees 435 prisoners. - Four PFLP terrorists hijack Achille Lauro taking 700 passengers and crew hostage. One US passenger is murdered. Egyptian government offers

terrorists safe haven over US objections. - Abu Nidal group hijacks EgyptAir flight from Athens to Malta. - Abu Nidal terrorists attack El Al and TWA counters in Rome and Vienna. 16 passengers and 4 terrorists are killed. Three terrorists surrenders. International Terrorism: 1968 - 1990 1986: - Palestinian splinter group bombs TWA flight near Athens, killing 4 US citizens. - Berlin Discotheque Bombing. Two US soldiers are killed. US bombs Libyan targets in retaliation. - Abu Nidal attempts hijacking of Pan Am flight in Karachi, killing 22. - Abu Nidal terrorists attack a synagogue in Istanbul, killing 22.

1988: Lockerbie Bombing. 259 passengers killed. International Terrorism: 1968 - 1990 Goals Supporting Diplomacy Obtaining Concessions The Commitment Problem De-Railing the Peace Process The Commitment Problem Financing State Sponsors.

PFLP, DPFLP, Saiqa $20-30m/year Fatah $150-200m/year Extortion & Legitimate businesses Abu Nidal International Terrorism: 1968 - 1990 Internationalization of Terror Making Terrorism Scalable Comparative Advantage Terrorist Summits Cuba 1966; Lebanon 1972; Yugoslavia 1978;

Lisbon 1981 Training Camps Joint Operations Lod Airport Massacre Mogadishu Competition Between Groups International Terrorism: 1960s - 1980 Countermeasures Diplomacy Carlos Why Did Hijackings Stop? Declining Publicity Value?

Political Needs? Counterterrorism Units? International Terrorism: 1960s - 1980 Munich and Afterward 1972: 1973: 1974: 1975: 1977: 1978: 1979:

22 SAS (UK), Gendarmerie Royale (Belgium) Grenzshutzgruppe-9 (West Germany), Gendarmerie Kommando (Austria). Gendarmerie d intervention Genarmeier Nationale (France) Beradskaptroppen (Norway). Delta Force (USA) Grupo Especail de Operaciones (Spain), Nucleo Operativo Centrale di Sicurezza (Italy) Grupo de Operacoes Especials (Portugal) International Terrorism: 1960s - 1980 Pre-Munich Outcomes

Israeli European 2 of 161 Palestinians arrested for acts of terror in third countries between 1968 and 1973 were actually punished. French Responses to ETA, Belgian Responses to IRA. Post-Munich Outcomes Capability is Not Enough! Deterrence also Needs a Commitment Strategy. Shifting the Burden - El Dorado Canyon State Sponsorship Part 2

Libya Munich & Various Hijackings Libyan Arms Shipments Four large shipments to IRA (1985 87) ~ 175 tons of weapons and Semtex explosives. Also: Syria, Iraq, Iran, Sudan State Sponsorship Part 2 Goals Gives Small Governments A Foreign Policy Capability Increases Nuisance Value But Only if Sponsor Can Renounce. Drawbacks

Difficult to Terminate Sponsorship Possibility of Miscalculation (El Dorado Canyon) Small vs. Medium-Sized States Inconsistent With WMD Complicates Conventional Foreign Policy, Leading to Isolation. Goals: International Terrorism: 1960s - 1980 Revolution Destroying and Replacing the State Publicity Obtaining Concessions

Forcing Withdrawal Provoking a Crackdown Foreign Intervention Catalyzing Diplomacy Supporting Major Military Operations Publicity Credibility Blocking Political Solutions Money Holding Territory Economic Goals The Efficacy of Counter-Terrorism:

International Terrorism: 1960s - 1980 Liberalization Public Opinion Rewards Informers Censorship Mass Arrests Mass Reprisals Internal Exile Surveillance Criminalizing Advocacy Targeted Assassinations & Preemptive Attacks

Military Tribunals Torture Armed Confrontation Conclusions And a Puzzle Goals: Conclusions Revolution Destroying and Replacing the State Destroying the Economy Publicity Obtaining Concessions

Forcing Withdrawal Provoking a Crackdown Foreign Intervention Catalyzing Diplomacy Supporting Major Military Operations Publicity Credibility Blocking Political Solutions Money Holding Territory Economic Goals Conclusions Countermeasures:

Liberalization Public Opinion Rewards Informers Censorship Mass Arrests Mass Reprisals Internal Exile Surveillance Criminalizing Advocacy Targeted Assassinations & Preemptive Attacks Military Tribunals Torture Armed Confrontation

Conclusions Terrorism is a Marginal Strategy. Once Started, Terrorism Tends to Be Persistent. State Power is Overwhelming, Even Modest Measures Are Effective. Sanctuaries, Sponsors, and Crime Make Terrorism Dramatically More Persistent. International Terrorism Weakens Traditional Constraints Against Violence. And a Puzzle The Third Wave of Terrorism

We have said that violence is constrained by Ideology Sympathizers & Public Opinion Sponsors Goals Goals: And a Puzzle Revolution Destroying and Replacing the State Destroying the Economy Publicity & Propaganda Obtaining Concessions Forcing Withdrawal

Provoking a Crackdown Foreign Intervention Catalyzing Diplomacy Supporting Major Military Operations Publicity Credibility Blocking Political Solutions Money Holding Territory Economic Goals And a Puzzle The Reason Wasnt Technology!

Boeing 727 Shootdown (February 1973) Operation Mt Carmel (July 21, 1973) Terrorism as Warfare Further Reading Terrorism Theory Walter Laqueur, A History of Terrorism ____________, The New Terrorism ____________, No End to War: Terrorism in the Twenty-First Century Alan Dershowitz, Why Terrorism Works Terrorism History National Commission on Terrorist Attacks, The 9/11 Commission Report

Peter Harclerode, Secret Soldiers David Tinnin, The Hit Team International Center for Counter-Terrorism, available at http://www.ict.org.il/inter_ter/orgdet.cfm?orgid=70 Further Reading Terrorism History, ctd. US State Department, Significant Terrorist Incidents, 1961- 2003: A Brief Chronology, available at http://www.state.gov./r/pa/ho/pubs/fs/index.cfm?docid=5902

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