The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 03 February 2020 For more information, visit: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/American_Monsoons

Outline Highlights Recent Evolution and Current Conditions NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Climatology Highlights During the last 7 days, below-average precipitation was observed over much of northwestern and southern Brazil, as well as portions of northern Argentina, Uruguay, eastern Peru and Bolivia. Above-average

precipitation was observed over portions of eastern Brazil, southern Paraguay, northern Peru and eastern Ecuador. For Days 1-7 (03 09 Feb 2020), below-average precipitation is predicted over much of northwestern and the extreme southern Brazil, as well as portions of northern Bolivia southern Peru and southern Colombia. Above-average precipitation is predicted for large portions of eastern Brazil and northern Argentina. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days

Total Anomaly During the last 7 days, below-average precipitation was observed over much of northwestern and southern Brazil, as well as portions of northern Argentina, Uruguay, eastern Peru and Bolivia. Above-average precipitation was observed over portions of eastern Brazil, southern Paraguay, northern Peru and eastern Ecuador. Rainfall Totals & Anomaly Patterns:

Last 30 Days Total Anomaly During the last 30 days, below-average precipitation was observed over much of Brazil, northern Argentina, Uruguay, southern Chile, Bolivia and eastern Peru. Above-average precipitation was observed over portions of southern Paraguay and eastern Brazil. Recent Evolution: Rainfall

Last 90 Days BP: Brazilian Plateau BP 90-day rainfall deficits are present over the Amazon Basin, the Brazilian Plateau and the extreme southern

Brazil. Tropical Pacific and Atlantic SST Anomalies SSTs are above-average across the western and central tropical Pacific (For details concerning El Nio La Nia, go to the link below.) A weekly PowerPoint summarizing the ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions is available at: http:// www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

Atmospheric Circulation Recent 7 days A Upper panels: During the recent 7-day period, anomalous anticyclonic flow (center noted by red A) was observed over northwestern Brazil. Lower panels: Anomalous sinking motion was

observed over northern Brazil and central Argentina, and anomalous rising motion was observed over eastern Brazil and Bolivia. Rising motion (negative omega, yellow/red shading), usually associated with wetter- thannormal conditions. Sinking motion (positive omega, blue shading), usually associated with drier-than-normal conditions.

925-hPa Wind &Temperature Recent 30 Days Recent 7 Days During the recent 7-day period, above-average temperature was seen over much of northern and the extreme southern Brazil. Low-level (~600 m above sea level) wind and temperature anomalies based on the NCEP Climate Data Assimilation Systems (CDAS) analysis. The patterns of anomalous temperature and wind at 925-hPa are usually similar to surface observations.

Note: Areas with surface pressure below 925-hPa are masked out. NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precipitation Forecasts from 03 Feb 2020 Days 1-7 Total Note: Bias correction based on last 30-day forecast error. Anomaly

NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precipitation Forecasts from 03 Feb 2020 Days 8-14 Total Note: Bias correction based on last 30-day forecast error. Anomaly

NCEP/GFS MODEL FORECASTS For Days 1-7 (03 09 Feb 2020), below-average precipitation is predicted over much of northwestern and the extreme southern Brazil, as well as portions of northern Bolivia southern Peru and southern Colombia. Above-average precipitation is predicted for large portions of eastern Brazil and northern Argentina. For Days 8 -14 (10 16 Feb 2020), below-average precipitation is predicted for much of Brazil, northern Uruguay, Bolivia and Ecuador. Above-average precipitation is predicted for small portions of southern

Brazil and southern Peru. Climatology Rainy Season Dates ONSET DEMISE Precipitation Climatology

Precipitation Climatology Animation

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