Dier Aratrma Yntemleri: Bibliyometri, Atf Analizi, Yneylem Aratrmas

Dier Aratrma Yntemleri: Bibliyometri, Atf Analizi, Yneylem Aratrmas

Dier Aratrma Yntemleri: Bibliyometri, Atf Analizi, Yneylem Aratrmas Yaar Tonta H.. BBY [email protected] yunus.hacettepe.edu.tr/~tonta/courses/spring2007/bby208/ BBY208 SLIDE 1 Bibliyometri Ktphanecilik ve bilgibilimde kullanlan bir aratrma yntemi Belli bir alandaki yayn rntlerini tanmlamak iin yaplan niceliksel ve istatistiksel analiz Bibliyometrik yntemler bir yazarn etkisini lmek iin kullanlabilir Science Citation Index Social Science Citation Index, Arts and Humanities Citation Index BBY208

SLIDE 2 Tanmlar biblion (Gr.): kitap metron (Gr.): lm statistiksel yntemleri uygulama almas ... Kitap benzeri eyler = bibliyometri ... Bilgiyle ilgili sreler = informetri ... bilim = scientometrics (bilimetri) ...web = webometri, sibermetri ... Toplumsal gruplar = sosyometri BBY208 SLIDE 3

Uygulamalar Kaynak datm Akademik ykseltmeler; desteklenecek aratrmalar; satn almaya deer dergiler Derme gelitirme En yararl materyalleri belirleme (dn verme kaytlarn ya da elektronik dergi kullanm istatistikleri) Bilgi eriim En sk istenen belgeleri, yazarlar belirlemek; en sk atf yaplan; birlikte atf yaplan, en popler vs. Bilgi sosyolojisi Belgeler, yazarlar, aratrma alanlar arasnda yapsal ve zamansal ilikileri belirleme BBY208 SLIDE 4 Lotka Yasas Belli bir alanda yayn yapan yazarlarn skln tanmlar n sayda katkda bulunan yazarlarn bir

katkda bulunan yazarlara oran 1/n; tek katk yapanlar tm katk yapanlarn %60 (Lotka 1926, aktaran Potter 1988). Yani bir alandaki yazarlarn %60nn tek yayn var, %15i 2 (0,60x1/2), %7si 3 (0,60x1/32), vs. Lotka Yasasna gre yazarlarn sadece %6snn 10 veya daha fazla katks olur BBY208 SLIDE 5 rnekler, Tonta ve Al, 2007 BBY208 SLIDE 6 En verimli yazarlar (19231999) BBY208 SLIDE 7 BBY208

SLIDE 8 rnekler, Tonta, 2002 BBY208 SLIDE 9 BBY208 SLIDE 10 Bradford Yasas Bir alandaki ekirdek dergileri saptamak iin kullanlr Dergiler ayn sayda makale ieren gruba blnr lk gruptaki dergilerin says azdr ama toplam makalelerin te birini yaymlar kinci gruptaki dergilerin says daha fazladr ama ayn sayda (1/3) makale yaymlarlar nc gruptaki dergilerin says daha da fazladr ama ayn sayda (1/3) makale yaymlarlar Bradford Yasas: 1:n:n. Bradford 326 jeofizik dergisinin kaynakalarna bakarak yasay formle etti. 9 dergi 429 makale (ekirdek dergiler)

59 dergi 499 makale (5x9) 258 dergi 404 makale (5x5x9) BBY208 SLIDE 11 rnekler, Tonta ve Al, 2007 BBY208 SLIDE 12 BBY208 SLIDE 13 BBY208 SLIDE 14 BBY208 SLIDE 15 BBY208

SLIDE 16 BBY208 SLIDE 17 rnekler, Tonta-nal, 2005, BBY208 SLIDE 18 Methodology The following research questions were addressed: 1. Does the distribution of (core) journals conform to Bradfords Law of Scattering? 2. Is there a relationship between the usage of journals and their impact factors, journals with high impact factors being used more often than the rest? 3. Is there a relationship between usage of journals and total citation counts, journals with high total citation counts being used more often than the rest? 4. What is the median age of use (half-life) of requested articles in general?

5. Do requested articles that appear in core journals get obsolete more slowly? 6. Is there a relationship between obsolescence and journal impact factors, journals with high impact factors being obsolete more slowly? 7. Is there a relationship between obsolescence and total citation counts, journals with high total citation counts being obsolete more slowly? BBY208 SLIDE 19 Fig. 1. Cumulative usage of journal titles and percentage of requests satisfied 100 Percentage of cumulative requests 90 80 70 60 50 40 30

20 10 0 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000

5500 Number of cumulative journal titles BBY208 SLIDE 20 6000 Table 1. Distribution of journal titles and requests satisfied by regions Region 1 2 3 Total BBY208 # of journal titles N % 168

3.0 499 9.1 4854 87.9 5521 100.0 # of requests N % 30,164 33.0 30,699 33.7 30,451 33.3 91,314 100.0 SLIDE 21 Distribution of requests by publication year 100 90

80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 BBY208 SLIDE 22 % of requests satisfied 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 BBY208

SLIDE 23 Table 2. The most frequently used 11 journal titles fulfilling more than 300 document delivery requests at TANIC (2000-2002) Journal title Impact Cited # of % of total median 90% obso- factor half-life total requests use age lescence (2001) (2001) use satisfied CLINICAL ORTHOPAEDICS AND RELATED RESEARCH 433 0.5 14 24

1.166 >10 PLASTIC AND RECONSTRUCTIVE SURGERY 415 0.5 10 28 1.436 9. 3 LANCET 407 0.4 9

25 13.251 7.0 JOURNAL OF FOOD PROTECTION 406 0.4 8 20 1.808 6.5 JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL AND FOOD CHEMISTRY 386

0.4 6 17 1.576 6.4 APPLIED AND ENVIRONMENTAL MICROBIOLOGY 362 0.4 13 21 3.688 6.7 NEW ENGLAND JOURNAL OF MEDICINE

352 0.4 9 21 29.065 7.2 SPINE 324 0.4 6 14 1.853

7.5 JOURNAL OF TRAUMA 316 0.3 6 16 3.190 8.3 JOURNAL OF UROLOGY 316 0.3 8 20

1.531 7.1 JOURNAL OF RHEUMATOLOGY 309 0.3 4 15 2.591 6.4 4026 4.4 8.4

20.1 Total/Average BBY208 SLIDE 24 rnekler, Al-ahiner -Tonta, 2005 BBY208 SLIDE 25 180 166 Number of publications 160 149

140 120 92 100 80 60 40 20 40 44 1980-1984 1985-1989 16 0 1975-1979 1990-1994

1995-1999 2000-2003 Periods BBY208 SLIDE 26 Figure 3. Distribution of the number of publications by Turkish authors that appeared in the arts 100 90 Cumulativepercentageof all publications 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10

0 0 15 30 45 60 75 90 105 120 135 150 165 180 195 210 225 240 Cumulative number of journals BBY208 SLIDE 27 6

% o f referen ces 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 2 4 6 8 10

12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 Ages BBY208 SLIDE 28 30

32 Atf Analizi Yazar bir dier yazara atf yapnca arada bir iliki kuruluyor eitli ilikiler kurulabilir: Yazarlar arasnda Eserler arasnda Dergiler arasnda Negatif atf (yazar ne sylediini bilmiyor) (Osareh 1996). BBY208 SLIDE 29 Birlikte Atf (Co-citation) ki belge arasnda konu benzerlii A ve B belgelerinin ikisine de C belgesinde atf yapldysa bunlar birbiriyle ilgili denebilir, aralarnda dorudan iliki olmasa da A ve Bye birok belgede birlikte atf yapldysa iliki daha gldr

BBY208 SLIDE 30 Birlikte Atf (Co-citation) B A Birlikte atf yaplyor C BBY208 Atf yapyor Atf yapyor SLIDE 31 Bibliyografik Eletirme Birlikte atfn tersi

A ve Bnin her ikisi de Cye atf yapyorsa A ve B birbiyle ilikilidir A ve B ne kadar ok ortak belgeye atf yapyorsa A ve B arasndaki iliki o kadar gldr BBY208 SLIDE 32 Bibliyografik Eletirme B A Birlikte atf yapyor C BBY208 Atf yapyor Atf yapyor

SLIDE 33 rnekler, Tonta-Al, 2005 BBY208 SLIDE 34 e-publications 3% other 2% dissertations 3% monographs 50% journal articles 42% BBY208 SLIDE 35 Bradford dalm Cumulative percentage of citations

100 80 60 40 20 0 0 20 40 60 80 Cum ulative percentage of journal titles BBY208

SLIDE 36 100 Lorenz Erisi ve Gini Katsays Cumulative percentage of citations 100 Gini coefficient = 0.75 80 60 40 20 0 0 20 40

60 80 Cum ulative percentage of journal titles Analysis of journal titles that w ere cited BBY208 Equality line SLIDE 37 100 Bradford Blgeleri Table 1. Distribution of citations to journal titles Region 1 2 3 Total BBY208

# of journal titles N % 4 0.9 34 7.8 400 91.3 438 100.0 # of citations N % 949 32.2 1023 34.7 973 33.0 2945

99.9 SLIDE 38 Bradford Dalm Cumulative number of citations 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1 10 100 1000 Cumulative number of journal titles (logarithmic scale)

BBY208 SLIDE 39 En sk kullanlan dergiler Journal name Trk Ktphanecilii (Journal of Turkish Librarianship) Resm Gazete (Official Gazette) College & Research Libraries Library Trends Library Journal Journal of the American Society for Information Science Unesco Bulletin for Libraries (discontinued) IFLA Journal Bulletin of the Medical Library Association International Library Review Aslib Proceedings Library Quarterly Journal of Documentation Libri BBY208 No. of citations 512

236 102 99 79 60 54 48 43 43 42 42 40 40 Impact factor* NA NA 1.181 0.757 0.205 1.773 NA NA 0.949 NA

0.368 0.500 1.648 0.123 SLIDE 40 Atflarn Yllara Gre Dalm N u m ber of cited sou rces 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1850 1865 1880 1895 1910 1925 1940 1955 1970 1985 2000 Year BBY208 SLIDE 41 Zipf Yasas

Bir metindeki szcklerin skln tahmin etmede kullanlr Bir metindeki terimleri azalan sklk srasna gre sralarsak, listedeki bir szcn srasnn sklkla arpm sabit bir sayy verir. likinin denklemi: r x f = k r szck sras, f sklk, k sabit Zipf yasay James Joyceun Ulyssesi zerinde denedi. En sk kullanlan szck 2653 kez, 100. en sk kullanlan szck 265 kez, 200. en sk kullanlan szck 133 kez metinde gemi. Sra ile sklk arpldnda 26.500e eit bir sabit elde ediyoruz. . BBY208 SLIDE 42 rnekler, Sever-Tonta, 2005 BBY208 SLIDE 43 BBY208

SLIDE 44 Metinde En Sk Geen Szckler Rank Word Frequency Zipf Constant A Rank Word Frequency Zipf Constant A r=1 VE

f=1137582 A=0.0227 r=800 SAVA f=8166 A=0.13036 r=2 BR f=803553 A=0.03207 r=900 GEN f=7200

A=0.12931 r=3 BU f=646620 A=0.03871 r=1000 SALAMAK f=6354 A=0.1268 r=4 DA f=359790

A=0.02872 r=2000 BAARI f=3205 A=0.12791 r=5 DE f=355645 A=0.03549 r=3000 NERGELER f=2100 A=0.12572

r=6 N f=262514 A=0.03143 r=4000 KOULLARI f=1587 A=0.12668 r=7 LE f=201530 A=0.02815

r=5000 BALATILAN f=1233 A=0.12302 r=8 TRKYE f=178250 A=0.02846 r=6000 CEVAPLANDIRACAK f=1005 A=0.12033 r=9

A f=174593 A=0.03136 r=7000 HAYVANSAL f=834 A=0.1165 r=10 N f=169675 A=0.03386 r=8000

KURTULMAK f=712 A=0.11367 r=11 OLARAK f=169252 A=0.03715 r=9000 OLUTU f=617 A=0.11081 r=20 BYK

f=116978 A=0.04669 r=10000 OYLAMAYI f=552 A=0.11015 r=30 DNYA f=96287 A=0.05764 r=20000 CEZAEVLERNDEK

f=228 A=0.091 r=40 GRE f=81062 A=0.0647 r=30000 UURDA f=131 A=0.07842 r=50 K f=74659

A=0.07449 r=40000 BALAMAYA f=87 A=0.06944 r=60 DURUMU f=69049 A=0.08267 r=50000 AKTFLERNN f=62

A=0.06186 r=70 LK f=59241 A=0.08275 r=60000 VERSEM f=46 A=0.05508 r=80 OLDUU f=56229 A=0.08977

r=70000 NAUMOSK f=36 A=0.05029 r=90 BUGN f=52326 A=0.09398 r=80000 HURT f=29 A=0.0463

r=100 DYE f=46981 A=0.09375 r=90000 MUHLS f=24 A=0.0431 r=200 MLYAR f=28999 A=0.11574 r=100000

YAMURLUK f=20 A=0.03991 r=300 SOHBET f=20733 A=0.12412 r=200000 KAHVEHANENN f=5 A=0.01996 r=400

EB f=15967 A=0.12745 r=300000 BOZDUKLARINI f=2 A=0.01197 r=500 MU f=12778 A=0.12749 r=400000 ZENCSYD

f=1 BBY208 SLIDE 45 A=0.00798 Yneylem Aratrmas YA: Ynetimsel karar vermeye yardmc olmak iin ynetim ilemlerine bilimsel yntemin uygulanmas Karar vermede ynetime niceliksel temel salamak iin tasarlanmtr BBY208 SLIDE 46 YAda temel adm Sorunu formle etmek Matematiksel hipotez(ler) letimsel tanm (en iyi ya da optimum zm)

Yntem tasarm (deneysel) Veri toplama ve analizi BBY208 SLIDE 47 Monte Carlo Yntemi ans nosyonuna dayanyor Lancaster . Ktphanesinde optimal dn verme politikasn kararlatrmak iin kullanld Modelde . verme sreleri, uzatma olasl, rezerv, geri arma, ayn kitaptan birden fazla kopya olmas, istek says ele alnd BBY208 SLIDE 48 performans ls Hemen salanabilirlik Tatmin dzeyi Derme nyargs

BBY208 SLIDE 49 Matematiksel model kavram Pisagor teoremi c2=a2 + b2 Bileik faiz ssel byme r = 0,04 A1 = A (1 + r) A2 = A (1 + r)2 A3 = A (1 + r)3 An = A (1 + r)n Srekli byme An = Aern BBY208 SLIDE 50 rnekler Beytepe Ktphanesindeki kitap says her yl %6 artyor. 30 yl sonra derme bykl ne olur? An = Aern

r = 0,06 n = 30 A30 = Ae1,8 (Tablodan e1,8 = 6,05 bulunur) A30 = 6,05A (Yani imdi 100.000 kitap varsa 30 yl sonra 605.000 kitap olacak.) BBY208 SLIDE 51 X Ktphanesinde 1990da 140.000, 2005de 255.000 kitap var. Byme oran nedir? Ka ylda 1 milyon kitap olur? n = 15 A=140.000 A15=255.000 255.000 = 140.000 e15r = e15r = 1,82 Tablodan e0,6 = 1, 82 bulunur 15r = 0,6 r = 0, 04 Byme oran ylda %4. BBY208 SLIDE 52

Ka ylda 1 milyon kitap olur? e0,4n = 3,92 Tablodan e1,4 = 3,92 0,04n = 1,4 n = 35 yl BBY208 SLIDE 53 %8 byme hzyla derme ka ylda ikiye katlanr? 2A = Ae0,08n veya e0,08n = 2 e0,7 = 2 0,08n = 0,7 n = 8,75 Yani yaklak 9 ylda ikiye katlanacak. BBY208

SLIDE 54 Kuyruk Teorisi Hizmet alan gidiyor Kuyruk Hizmet noktas ... 1. Sisteme varlar rastgele (Poisson dalm). Ama belli bir ortalamas var () 2. Servis sreleri farkl () 3. Kuyrua girmeme ya da kuyruktan ayrlma yok BBY208 SLIDE 55 rnekler Diyelim ki ktphaneye dakikada ortalama 2 kullanc giriyor Hizmet kapasitesi dakikada 4 kullanc Kuyruk yok! Eer fazla kullanc gelirse o zaman

kuyruk oluuyor BBY208 SLIDE 56 Sorular Servis ne kadar bo? Ortalama bekleme sresi ne kadar? Kuyruk uzunluu ne kadar? Geli skl ve servis sresi bilinirse unlar bulunabilir: Sistemdeki ortalama kii says L Kuyruun boyu Lq Sistemdeki ortalama bekleme sresi T Servisin megul olduu ortalama zaman p Kuyrukta n kii olma olasl pn BBY208

SLIDE 57 Yneticiye ne yapaca sylenebilir. rnein byk bir spermarkette kuyruklarn olumasnn nlenmesi Denge daha fazla sayda servis noktas alarak salanabilir Ya da kullanc memnuniyetsizlii oluur Ktphanelerde de . verme, referans, rezerv, fotokopi hizmetlerinde kullanlabilir BBY208 SLIDE 58 Tek servis noktal kuyruklar Varsaymlar Geliler rastgele Birinin dieri zerinde etkisi yok ki geliin ayn anda olma olasl 0. Poisson P (k) = (e-k / k!) Ortalama geli

Olaslk bir olayn olma olasl BBY208 SLIDE 59 rnek = 2 e- = 0,135 Kuyrukta 0, 1, 25 kii olma olasl nedir? P (k) = (e-k / k!) P (0) = (0,135x1) / 1 = 0,135 yani %13,5 P (1) = (0,135x2) / 1 = 0,27 yani %27 P (2) = (0,135x4) / 2 = 0,27 yani %27 P (3) = (0,135x8) / 6 = 0,18 yani %18 P (4) = (0,135x16) / 24 = 0,09 yani %9 P (5) = (0,135x32) / 120 = 0,036 yani %3,6 BBY208 SLIDE 60 ssel dalm Belleksiz ortalamal ssel dalmda bir servisin t

birim zaman ama olasl P(t) = e-t / BBY208 SLIDE 61 rnek dn verme masasnda ortalama hizmet sresi 5 dakika olsun. Dalm ssel Hizmet sresinin 5 dakikay ama olasl nedir? P(t) = e-t / P(5) = e-5 /5 = e-1 Tablo 5.2de e-1=0,368 Yani 100 kerede 37 kere hizmet sresi 5 dakikay aacak demektir. P(0)=1 (yani %100); P(1)=%82; P(2)=%67; P(10)=%13,5 BBY208 SLIDE 62 eitli formller

zaman aralnda hizmet noktasnn megul olmas: = / Kuyruun ortalama uzunluu Lq = 2/1-p= 2/ (- ) Ortalama sistemdeki kii says L= /1-p = / (- ) Ortalama bekleme sresi T=L/ = 1/ (- ) Kuyrukta n kii olma olasl (n) = (1- )* n BBY208 SLIDE 63 rnek Rezerv masasna geliler rastgele (Poisson); ortalama dakikada 6 kii Masada dakikada ortalama 8 kiiye hizmet verilebiliyor Dalm ssel BBY208

SLIDE 64 Servis noktas ortalama %75 megul = / =6/8=0,75=%75 BBY208 SLIDE 65 Sistemdeki ortalama kii says 3 L= /1-p = / (- )=0,75/(1-0,25)=3 BBY208 SLIDE 66 Kuyruun boyu Lq=2,25 Lq = 2/1-p= 2/ (- ) Lq= 0,752/1-0,75= 2,25 BBY208 SLIDE 67

Sistemdeki ortalama bekleme sresi T = 30 saniye T=L/ = 1/ (- )=3/6=0,5 dakika= 30 saniye BBY208 SLIDE 68 Kuyrukta 3 kii olma olasl p3 =0,11=%11 (n) = (1- )* n (3)=(0,25)*0,753=0,11=%11 BBY208 SLIDE 69

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