Stillbirth, Productive Life, and Net Merit Update Paul

Stillbirth, Productive Life, and Net Merit Update Paul

Stillbirth, Productive Life, and Net Merit Update Paul VanRaden, John Cole, and George Wiggans Animal Improvement Programs Laboratory Agricultural Research Service, USDA, Beltsville, MD [email protected] 200 6 Stillbirth Evaluations Percent stillbirths in first-calf heifers (%SBH), similar to calving ease (%DBH) Sire SB: 12.0% +- 1.5% Daughter SB: 12.0% +- 2.5% Range 8 17% sire, 6 27% daughter Fewer stillbirths (avg 5%) in later parities Number of records half of calving ease Display 4 traits or only an index? Holstein Sire Committee, Select Sires 2006 (2) P.M. VanRaden 200 6 Stillbirth Data Stillbirth Score Parity

Alive Dead Died Usable 1 2 3 Records 1 88.0% 11.3% .7% 1,505,826 2+ 95.0% 3.9% 1.1% 4,202,200 Usable Records 5,384,029 348,677 29,320 5,762,026 Holstein Sire Committee, Select Sires 2006 (3) P.M. VanRaden 200 6 Stillbirth Genetic Trend Stillbirth Percent 15

14 13 DSB 12 SSB 11 10 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Birth Year DSB = Daughter (cows) contribution to stillbirth rate. SSB = Service sires contribution to stillbirth rate. Holstein Sire Committee, Select Sires 2006 (4) P.M. VanRaden 200 6 Distribution of Reliabilities 80 Direct Maternal 70 Percentage 60 50 40 30

20 10 0 <=45 46-50 51-55 56-60 61-65 66-70 Holstein Sire Committee, Select Sires 2006 (5) 71-75 Reliability 76-80 81-85 86-90 91-95 96-99 P.M. VanRaden 200 6 Correlations Among Traits (99% Rel bulls, n = 571) Daughter SB Sire SB 0.28 Daughter SB Sire CE

Holstein Sire Committee, Select Sires 2006 (6) Sire CE Daughter CE 0.67 0.29 0.25 0.63 0.46 P.M. VanRaden 200 6 Correlations among domestic and Interbull stillbirth solutions ( 90% Rel) Sire Daughter CHE 0.90 0.85 DNK 0.78 0.75 FIN 0.65 0.96

NLD 0.71 0.69 SWE 0.63 0.89 Holstein Sire Committee, Select Sires 2006 (7) P.M. VanRaden 200 6 Economic Assumptions Newborn calf value $450 for females $150 for males Expenses per difficult birth (4 or 5) $75 labor and veterinary $100 reduced milk yield $75 reduced fertility and longevity 1% chance of cow death ($1800) Holstein Sire Committee, Select Sires 2006 (8) P.M. VanRaden

200 6 Calving Ability Indexes Calve Ease Sire Dtr DEU NLD CHE NOR USA Stillbirth Mod- Total el Merit Sire Dtr 19 33 12 0 26 26 17 33 12 38 34 33 proposed 25 15 15 Holstein Sire Committee, Select Sires 2006 (9) 29 17 38 33 AM AM AM SM

7% 4% 0% 3% 45 SM 5% P.M. VanRaden 200 6 Calving Ability Holstein Sire Committee, Select Sires 2006 (10) P.M. VanRaden 200 6 Holstein Pregnancy Rate Phenotypic and Genetic Trend 19652000 10 30 Breeding Value Pregnancy Rate 28 6 26 4 24 2

22 0 20 -2 1965 Pregnancy Rate Breeding Value 8 18 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Year Holstein Sire Committee, Select Sires 2006 (11) P.M. VanRaden 200 6 Culling Emphasis Relative emphasis % on first-parity trait Milk Fat Prot.

Year Yield Yield Yield SCS DO CE FS 1988 100 82 99 -19 -18 -8 26 1992 100 76 101 -25 -23 -9 24 1996 100 74 100 -26 -30

-9 23 2000 100 78 95 -33 -74 -15 33 Holstein Sire Committee, Select Sires 2006 (12) P.M. VanRaden 200 6 Flat PL Credits 140 Credit (%) 120 10 0 80 60 40 2 0 0 1 0 1 2

2 3 3 4 5 Years Holstein Sire Committee, Select Sires 2006 (13) P.M. VanRaden 200 6 Lactation Curve PL Credits 140 Credit (%) 120 10 0 80 60 40 2 0 0 1 0 1 2 2 3 3 4 5

Years Holstein Sire Committee, Select Sires 2006 (14) P.M. VanRaden 200 6 Correlation of PL, Other Traits PTA of bulls born since 1995 Pro SCS DPR Udd Feet / Leg Size DCE .07 -.28 .59 .12 .04 -.20 -.26 Curves .10 -.30 .51 .12 .05 -.21 -.27 Flat,

305 Holstein Sire Committee, Select Sires 2006 (15) P.M. VanRaden 200 6 NOT on Herdlife Builder List Bull O Man Bright Casimir Zenith Man Boone PL +3.3 +3.1 +2.6 +2.1 +1.8 +1.4 SCS 2.77 2.63 2.71 2.61 2.49 2.72 Holstein Sire Committee, Select Sires 2006 (16) DPR +1.9 +1.7 +.4 +1.1 +.0 -.2 PTAT +.48

+.96 +1.08 +1.43 +1.33 +.59 NM$ +703 +322 +444 +383 +513 +542 P.M. VanRaden 200 6 Herdlife Builders? Bull Elcon Best Hi Metro Sable Biaritz Blitz PL -1.2 -.6 -.6 -.5 -.3 +.1 SCS DPR PTAT NM$ 3.19 -1.3 +.97 +239 3.20 -.7 +1.78 +235 2.81 -2.8 +2.82 +64 3.12 -1.3 +1.21 +358 2.90 -1.3 +1.70 +256 3.03 -2.4 +1.86 +157 Holstein Sire Committee, Select Sires 2006 (17)

P.M. VanRaden 200 6 Top PL Proof Stability Select Sires bulls born 1995-96, current REL PL > 90% Bull Congo Brass Beach Geno Equity Avg REL Feb03 +2.6 +1.7 +1.6 +1.6 +1.5 71% Aug04 Feb06 +2.9 +2.9 +2.0 +.9 +1.5 +1.1 +2.0 +1.3 +1.0 +.4 83% 96% PL adjusted to 2005 base Holstein Sire Committee, Select Sires 2006 (18) P.M. VanRaden 200

6 Bottom PL Proof Stability Select Sires bulls born 1995-96, current REL PL > 90% Bull Talisman Calvin Hillcrest Truman Derry Feb03 -2.1 -2.0 -1.2 -1.2 -1.0 Avg REL 71% Aug04 Feb06 -2.4 -1.5 -1.7 -1.4 -.9 -1.6 -1.1 -1.5 -1.6 -1.3 83% 96% PL adjusted to 2005 base Holstein Sire Committee, Select Sires 2006 (19) P.M. VanRaden 200 6

Top DPR Proof Stability Select Sires bulls born 1995-96, current REL DPR > 90% Bull Mozer Geno Beach Brass Alloy Avg REL Feb03 +.5 +.3 +.2 +.2 +.0 67% Aug04 Feb06 +.8 +.6 +.6 +.5 +1.6 +1.4 -.3 -.9 -.1 +1.2 82% 96% DPR adjusted to 2005 base Holstein Sire Committee, Select Sires 2006 (20) P.M. VanRaden 200 6 Bottom DPR Proof Stability Select Sires bulls born 1995-96, current REL DPR > 90% Bull

Hi Metro Hillcrest Louie Calvin Sovereign-Red Avg REL Feb03 -3.4 -2.6 -2.4 -2.2 -2.0 67% Aug04 Feb06 -3.0 -2.8 -2.1 -3.1 -1.9 -1.6 -1.9 -1.8 -1.6 -1.6 82% 96% DPR adjusted to 2005 base Holstein Sire Committee, Select Sires 2006 (21) P.M. VanRaden 200 6 Days Open Genetic Correlations Jorjani, 2005 Interbull Bulletin DFS ESP DFS .91

GBR IRL NLD NZL USA .91 .75 .93 .76 .91 .89 .82 .90 .83 .93 .84 .96 .84 .85 .80 .70 .80 .83 .88 ESP

.91 GBR .91 .89 IRL .75 .82 .84 NLD .93 .90 .96 .80 NZL .76 .83 .84 .85 .83 USA .91 .93 .85

.80 .88 .73 .73 DFS = Denmark-Finland-Sweden Holstein Sire Committee, Select Sires 2006 (22) P.M. VanRaden 200 6 Predict Longevity from Fertility Which cow fertility trait contributes most to longevity? Days to first insemination (DFI) Nonreturn rate (NR) Longevity depends most on DFI Correlations = .33 DFI, .11 NR in USA 23% DFI and 12% NR used in CAN Only DFI used in NLD Holstein Sire Committee, Select Sires 2006 (23) P.M. VanRaden 200 6 Fertility Trait Indexes

% relative emphasis Trait NLD ITA ESP CAN DNK1 DO2 NR3 Days 1st Insem. 54 56 52 25 15 69 Non Return 44 48 65 70 31 10 15 46 Heifer fertility 100 Time from first to last insemination replaces nonreturn rate Countries that evaluate only days open or calving interval 3 Countries that evaluate only nonreturn rate or number of inseminations

1 2 Holstein Sire Committee, Select Sires 2006 (24) P.M. VanRaden 200 6 Milk, Fat, and Protein Prices Federal Order Class III (Cheese) Year Milk Fat Protein Carrier 2000 9.74 1.25 1.69 .0030 .14 2001 13.10 1.85 1.96 .0075 .17 2002 10.42 1.19 1.97 .0035

.14 2003 11.42 1.21 2.38 .0005 .16 2004 15.39 2.05 2.60 .0042 .20 2005 14.05 1.71 2.46 .0035 .18 Holstein Sire Committee, Select Sires 2006 (25) SCS P.M. VanRaden 200 6 Proposed and Current Prices Net Merit, Cheese Merit, and Fluid Merit Year

Milk Fat Prot Carrier SCS 2006 NM 12.70 1.50 1.90 1.75 .18 2006 CM 12.70 1.50 2.80 -.95 .18 2006 FM 12.70 1.50 .50 5.95 .18 2003 NM 12.70 1.30 2.30 1.25 .18

2003 CM 12.70 1.30 3.00 -.85 .18 2003 FM 12.70 1.30 1.00 5.15 .18 Holstein Sire Committee, Select Sires 2006 (26) P.M. VanRaden 200 6 Changes expected for August Stillbirth evaluation New definition of productive life Include in calving ability index Credit for longer lactations Lower correlation with fertility

Standard deviation 1.43 times larger Update NM$ economic values Holstein Sire Committee, Select Sires 2006 (27) P.M. VanRaden 200 6 Carlin M Ivanhoe Bell BL CV Holstein Sire Committee, Select Sires 2006 (28) P.M. VanRaden 200 6

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