Post Session Briefing

Post Session Briefing

Changing Demographics & Economic Conditions in North Carolina October 7, 2015 Alexandra Forter Sirota, Director Budget & Tax Center A non-profit, non-partisan project of the North Carolina Justice Center founded in 1994 to conduct fiscal and economic analysis of the policies and issues impacting low- and moderate income families in North Carolina MAJOR ACCOMPLISHMENTS:

Repealed the state tax on groceries Produced the first Living Income Standard resulting in a Legislative Study Committee and supporting a minimum wage campaign that was successful Established a State Earned Income Tax Credit Secured a balanced approach to the budget shortfall during the Great Recession

Maintained income taxes during prominent tax fight in 2013 We believe that facts matter & that facts must be accessible to make an impact. THE POLICY OPPORTUNITY IN THE SHORT RUN A slow economic recovery characterized by too few jobs and concentration of job growth in low-wage industries and occupations

Persistent and concentrated economic hardship in certain regions of the state. IN THE LONG RUN A changing demographic with rapid urbanization and rural decline, increasing diversity driven by a growing Latino population

Ongoing transformation in the economy from manufacturing to service sector industries and a future of work that requires policy attention Higher Productivity without Better Pay Percent Change in Productivity and Hourly Compensation, 1979 to 2014 Majority of North Carolina Counties Still Have More Unemployed Workers than Job Openings Pamlico County Madison County Nash County

Bladen County Washington County Pender County Polk County Martin County Yadkin County Rutherford County Davidson County Brunswick County Sampson County Beaufort County Lincoln County Davie County

Richmond County Swain County Craven County Hertford County Moore County Iredell County Catawba County Buncombe County Durham County 0 1

2 3 4 Unemployed Workers Per Job Openings 5 6

7 Actual Unemployment Still Above 10% Unemployment Rate almost Doubles when Missing Workers are Included 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Jan-08

Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10

May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12

Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14

Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 0% Official Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate with Missing Workers

Source: Budget and Tax Center Analysis of Local Area Unemployment Statistics, July 2015. For full methodology, see BTC Brief: Lack of Jobs Drives Exodus from Workforce in North Carolina Source: NC Budget and Tax Center. North Carolinas Greatest Challenge: Widespread Struggles Remain a Grave Threat to Economic Growth and Us All. April 2015. Ten North Carolina counties experience persistent poverty. Counties with poverty rates of 20% or higher for three decades In 40 of 100 counties, the state is losing its working-age population.

North Carolina will be a majority minority state by 2050. People of Color by Age in Each County shows the Demographic Shift Underway Immigrant population grows by 3,000 percent since 1960 350000 Absolute Change in Foreign Born Population 300000 250000 200000

150000 100000 50000 0 1960-1970 1970-1980 1980-1990

1990-2000 2000-2012 The NC economy would have been $63 billion larger without racial gaps in income. THE POLICY IMPACT State Spending as a Part of the Economy Will Keep Shrinking, Remain Below the 45-Year Average Total General Fund appropriations as a share of state personal income

8% 45-year average = 6.1% 7% Final Budget Agreement = 5.2% in FY16 5.0% in FY17 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1%

0% Source: NCGA-Approved General Fund budgets via OSBM Post-Legislative Summaries and FRD Budget Highlights; FY15-17 budget deal; and BLS State SNAP Benefits Stabilize North Carolina SNAP Benefits, In millions $3,000,000,000 $2,500,000,000 SNAP benefits received in NC more than doubled due to

the recession. SNAP costs are expected to decrease and then stabilize as the economy improves. SNAP costs will only increase as the population increases. $2,000,000,000 $1,500,000,000 $1,000,000,000 $500,000,000

$0 95 98 01 04 07 10

13 16 19 Source: Congressional Budget Office, 2007-2013 SNAP State Activity Reports. Note: Projections based off Congressional Budget Office Federal projections. 22 25

Source: Moodys Analytics BUILDING AN ECONOMY THAT WORKS FOR ALL TIPS ON USING DATA TO IDENTIFY THE POLICY OPPORTUNITY/ IMPACT Tell a story

Provide descriptive visuals or use social math to make numbers concrete Use the fewest numbers to accurately present your findings Make the connection between the data and lived experience and policy solutions

Email me at: [email protected] Follow us on Twitter at: @ncbudgetandtax www.ncjustice.org

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