National Weather Service 3rd Quarter Review 2001

National Weather Service 3rd Quarter Review 2001

Realities (NDFD, NDGD, IFPS) David Ruth Meteorological Development Laboratory National Weather Service, NOAA 3rd NCEP/NWS Ensemble User Workshop November 1, 2006 The National Academies - 2003 Realities 2 National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) Contains a seamless mosaic of NWS digital forecasts Is available to all users and partners public and private Allows users and partners to create wide range of text, graphic, and image products Realities

3 How is NDFD Produced? National Centers Model Guidance Detailed Interactive Collaborative Grids Field Offices Local Digital Forecast Database Collaborate Data and Science Focus NWS Automated Products Y..

ELLY LIKEO VVEE AIN LAIK .R .RALIN ABBO AYY....IK LYY OOW WBY LLIKEE TTOODDA N S W N WEEETT.. SIONN BY1 TTOO SSNNOO LAATTIO ONN 1 0 00 FFEU 25 25C0C0UUM MUL RNNOOO 2255000 AACCE AAFFTTEEARBBOOVVEE IT T

ITHH SS A ERRW LA LATE DE W CCHHEEO 22IN IN T..CCOLLTDOO4400.. D 55TTOO TS 3355 T WIN FFEEEEH INDTTOO S STT W GG IN HHIG IGUHTTHHEEAAHSIF T IN T SSOOUPHHSSHIF LY M MP EARRLY 10

10HE ESSTTEOAOONN.. TTHE WER NO THHW SSOOUUTAAFFTTEERFN %.. FIONN 7700% ISNCCEEOOT TTHHIS IO NIPIT CCHHAAC ITAAT PPRREECIP Digital Text Graphic Realities National Centers

User-Generated Products National Digital Forecast Database Voice 4 Spatial Detail Evident in the NDFD Realities 5 Availability of NDFD Grids via FTP WMO GRIB v2 format CONUS, 16 CONUS sectors, Hawaii, Guam, and Puerto Rico GIS output available via downloadable GRIB decoder XML web service NDFD points in Extensible Markup Language (XML) Element, forecast time, and point location requested by user

application Access via Simple Object Access Protocol Web graphics at weather.gov/forecasts/graphical Realities 6 Who downloads NDFD grids? Unknown Top NDFD Grid Downloaders December 2005 Weather Underground The Weather Network WeatherBug NWS OCCWS NWS RFC NE ZedX, Inc. Ekkosoft US M2M User AccuWeather

University of Washington NWS ERH University of Utah NASA Ames Research Center NWS RFC OH National Ocean Service NWS WFO CLE Pnplibi Weather Derivatives Software Real Data Corp NASA Kennedy Space Center International Pacific Research Center Realities 7 The Weather Underground Commercial NDFD graphics Realities 8 Ham Weather

Commercial NDFD graphics Realities 9 AccuWeather Pro (by subscription) Commercial NDFD graphics Realities 10 WeatherBug Plus ($19.95) NDFD in commercial software Realities 11 ESRI ArcMap-ArcInfo NDFD GIS display

Realities 12 Weather Mole NDFD point forecast via Google Maps Realities 13 Weather Bonk NDFD point forecast via Google Maps Realities 14 Weather Bonk Route Forecast from NDFD Realities

15 Weather Meister Interactive NDFD Airport Forecasts Realities 16 Observed Weather at 3/22 00z Realities 17 7 days of forecasts valid 3/22 00z Realities 18 NDFD Forecast Elements - original dozen Forecast Element Maximum Temperature

Minimum Temperature PoP12 Hourly Temperature Hourly Dewpoint Predominant Weather Wind Direction Wind Speed Sky Cover Precipitation Amount Snow Amount Significant Wave Height Realities Status Probabilistic operational no operational no operational yes operational no operational no

operational yes operational no operational no experimental no experimental no experimental no experimental no Range 7 days 7 days 7 days 7 days 7 days 7 days 7 days 7 days 7 days 3 days

2 days 5 days Source WFO WFO WFO WFO WFO WFO WFO WFO WFO WFO WFO WFO 19 NDFD Forecast Elements - latest additions Forecast Element Apparent Temperature Relative Humidity Trop. Cyclone Winds >34kt Trop. Cyclone Winds >50kt Trop. Cyclone Winds >64kt

Wind Gust Realities Status Probabilistic operational no operational no experimental yes experimental yes experimental yes experimental no Range 7 days 7 days 5 days 5 days 5 days 7 days

Source WFO WFO TPC TPC TPC WFO 20 NDFD Forecast Elements - contribution from SPC Forecast Element Tornadoes Hail Damaging Tstorm Winds Extreme Tornadoes Extreme Hail Extreme Tstorm Winds Total Severe Tstorm Total Extreme Tstorm Realities Status planned

planned planned planned planned planned planned planned Probabilistic yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes Range 1 day 1 day 1 day 1 day 1 day 1 day 3 days

3 days Source SPC SPC SPC SPC SPC SPC SPC SPC 21 NDFD Forecast Elements - contribution from CPC Forecast Element Temp. Above Normal Temp. Below Normal Precip Above Normal Precip Below Normal Temp. Above Normal Temp. Below Normal Precip Above Normal Precip Below Normal Temp. Above Normal Temp. Below Normal

Precip Above Normal Precip Below Normal Realities Status planned planned planned planned planned planned planned planned planned planned planned planned Probabilistic Range yes 8-14 day yes 8-14 day yes 8-14 day

yes 8-14 day yes 30 day yes 30 day yes 30 day yes 30 day yes 90 day yes 90 day yes 90 day yes 90 day Source CPC CPC CPC CPC CPC CPC

CPC CPC CPC CPC CPC CPC 22 NDFD Forecast Elements - proposed and deferred Forecast Element Prob. of Frozen Precip Prob. of Freezing Precip Prob. of Thunderstorms Probabilistic QPF Floating PoPs PoP06 Realities Status deferred deferred deferred deferred deferred

deferred Probabilistic yes yes yes yes yes yes Range 7 days 7 days 7 days 3 days 7 days 7 days Source WFO WFO WFO WFO WFO WFO

23 NDFD Forecast Elements - next in line from WFOs Forecast Element Weather Hazards 20 ft Winds Max/min Relative Humidity Lightning Activity Level Mixing Height Transport Winds Haines Index Ceiling Height Visibility Ice Coverage Swell Height Swell Direction Realities Status 2007 TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD

TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD Probabilistic no no no no no no no no no no no no Range TBD TBD TBD TBD

TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD Source WFO WFO WFO WFO WFO WFO WFO WFO WFO WFO WFO WFO 24 The Digital Forecast Process

Observations Numerical Modeling Numerical Output Model Interpret. Sensible Weather Forecast Editing Digital Forecast Realities Product Generation User Products

25 Interactive Forecast Preparation Observations 4D Field Modification Threshold Adjustment Numerical Modeling Object Editing Numerical Output Model Interpret. Sensible Weather Grid Editing

Forecast Editing Digital Forecast Realities Matrix Editing Product Generation User Products 26 Proposed Course of Action 2003 MDL Science Review Phase out software as an external MDL product line Establish MDL as world leader in the Probabilistic Real-time Interpretation of Models and Forecasts Make MDL interpretative products available in database that provides interoperability with

NDFD Realities 27 PRIMF Digital Flow Climatology Numerical Output NWS Forecast Offices and Centers Realities PRIMF Server NDGD Current Observation NDFD NWS Customers

and Partners 28 PRIMF Components High-resolution MOS and updates to MOS (i.e., LAMP) Statistical interpretation of NDFD highlighting forecast uncertainty (NUANCE) Real-time forecast monitoring and feedback Probabilistic coastal hazards Verification of NDFD and NDGD Realities 29 NUANCE NUANCE = Numerical Uncertainty Assessment of NDFD via Climatology and Ensembles http://ams.confex.com/ams/WAFNWP34BC/techprogram/paper_94464.htm Given the single value NDFD forecast for a weather element, recent NDFD performance,

and related guidance (e.g., ensemble spread), quantify the expected variability of observations for that weather element. Realities 30 Personal Views on Reality Forecasters at 120+ WFOs neither have the time, expertise, or tools to quantify uncertainty for all NDFD elements. Information about forecast uncertainty can be derived from NDFD single value forecasts, climatology, and ensemble spread. NDFD and NDGD provide an ideal avenue to convey uncertainty information to those who can use it in digital form. Complex decision support applications and displays should be developed by private weather providers for specific user communities. Uncertainty information can be added to NWS end-user products created from NDFD and NDGD Realities 31

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