Managing Projects - California State University, Northridge

Managing Projects - California State University, Northridge

The Nature of Project Management Characteristics of Projects: purpose, life cycle, interdependencies, uniqueness, and conflict. Project Management Process: planning (work breakdown structure), scheduling, and controlling. Selecting the Project Manager: credibility, sensitivity, ability to handle stress, and leadership. Building the Project Team: Forming, Storming, Norming, and Performing. Principles of Effective Project Management: direct people individually and as a team, reinforce excitement, keep everyone informed, manage healthy conflict, empower team, encourage risk taking and creativity. Work Breakdown Structure 1.0 Move the hospital (Project) 1.1 Move patients (Task) 1.1.1 Arrange for ambulance (Subtask) 1.1.1.1 Prepare patients for move 1.1.1.2 Box patients personnel effects 1.2 Move furniture 1.2.1. Contract with moving company

Project Management Questions What activities are required to complete a project and in what sequence? When should each activity be scheduled to begin and end? Which activities are critical to completing the project on time? What is the probability of meeting the project completion due date? How should resources be allocated to activities? Tennis Tournament Activities Activity Description Immediate Designation Predecessor Negotiate for Location A Contact Seeded Players B Plan Promotion C A Locate Officials D C Send RSVP Invitations E

C Sign Player Contracts F B,C Purchase Balls and Trophies G D Negotiate Catering H E,F Prepare Location I E,G Tournament J H,I Duration (days) 2 8 3 2 10 4 4 1 3 2

Notation for Critical Path Analysis Item Activity duration Symbol t Definition The expected duration of an activity Early start ES The earliest time an activity can begin if all previous activities are begun at their earliest times Early finish EF The earliest time an activity can be completed if it is started at its early start time Late start LS The latest time an activity can begin without delaying the completion of the project

Late finish LF The latest time an activity can be completed if it is started at its latest start time Total slack TS The amount of time an activity can be delayed without delaying the completion of the project Tennis Tournament Activity on Node Diagram TS A2 C3 START B8 F4 D2

G4 E10 I3 H1 ES EF LS LF J2 PERT Program Evaluation and Review Technique PERTProgram Evaluation Review Technique Assumes each activity duration has a range that statistically follows a beta distribution . Uses three time estimates for each activity: optimistic, pessimistic, and a weighted average to represent activity durations. Knowing the weighted average and variances for

each activity allows the project planner to compute the probability of meeting different project durations. 78 Tennis Tournament Activity on Node Diagram TS A2 C3 START B8 F4 D2 G4 E10 I3 H1 ES

EF LS LF J2 Incorporating Uncertainty in Activity times F(D) P(DB) = .01 A B optimistic M most likely TIME D average

pessimistic Formulas for Beta Distribution of Activity Duration Expected Duration _ A4M B D 6 Variance B A V 6 2 Note: (B - A )= Range or 6 Activity Means and Variances for Tennis Tournament Activity A B C D

E F G H I J a 1 5 2 1 6 2 1 1 2 2 m 2 8 3 2 9 4 3 1 2 2

b 3 11 4 3 18 6 11 1 8 2 ET 2 8 3 2 10 4 4 1 3 2 Variance 4/36 36/36 4/36 4/36

144/36 16/36 100/36 0 36/36 0 Uncertainly Analysis Assumptions 1. Use of Beta Distribution and Formulas For D and V 2. Activities Statistically Independent 3. Central Limit Theorem Applies ( Use student t if less than 30 activities on CP) 4. Use of Critical Path Activities Leading Into Event Node Result Project Completion Time Distribution is Normal With: _ D For Critical Path Activities 2 V For Critical Path Activities Completion Time Distribution for Tennis Tournament Critical Path Activities

A C E I J D 2 3 10 3 2 = 20 V 4/36 4/36 144/36 36/36 0 2 188/36 = 5.2 = Question What is the probability of an overrun if a 24 day completion time is promised? X

24 20 Z 5.2 Z 2 5.2 Z 1.75 20 24 P (Time > 24) = .5 - .4599 = .04 or 4% Days Activity Cost-time Tradeoff Cost C* Crash Slope is cost to expedite per day Normal C D*

D Activity Duration (Days) Cost-Time Estimates for Project Activit Norma y l Time Crash Time Norma l Cost Crash Cost A 2 1 $6 $10 B

5 2 $9 $18 C 4 3 $6 $8 D 3 1 $5 $9 Progressive Crashing B

A D C Progressive Crashing Using Normal Times, What is the critical path? A-B-D : 10 days (Critical Path) A-C-D : 9 days Using Normal Times, How long is the project expected to take? Critical Path Time : 10 days Using Normal Times, How much will the project cost? Normal Cost to complete A,B,C,D = 6+9+6+5=$26 Progressive Crashing Cuts Addition al Cost Completio n Time After Cuts Total Cost

10 ---- --- --- $26 ABD 10 D cut 1 $2 9 $28 ABD 9 D cut 1 $2

8 $30 ABD 8 B cut 1 $3 7 $33 ABD ACD 7 A cut 1 $4 6 $37

ABD ACD 6 B cut 1 C cut 1 $3 $2 5 $42 Current CP Completio n Time ABD

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