IT Workforce - Computing Research Association (CRA)

IT Workforce - Computing Research Association (CRA)

Remarks before the Computing Research Association The Adequacy of the U.S. S&E Workforce: A QUANTITATIVE PERSPECTIVE Offshore Outsourcing John Sargent Senior Policy Analyst U.S. Department of Commerce Alarm Bells the nation may likely face severe shortages in SET workers Land of Plenty, Commission on the Advancement of Women and Minorities in Science, Engineering, and Technology Development (CAWMSET) There is a quiet crisis building in the United States [that] stems from the gap between the nations growing need for scientists, engineers, and other technically skilled workers, and its production of them. The Quiet Crisis: Falling Short in Producing American Scientific and Technical Talent, Building Engineering and Science Talent (BEST) U.S. need for the highest quality human capital in science, mathematics and engineering is not being met. Hart-Rudman Commission "Our 1998 study found a shortage of 346,000 programmers, systems analysts and computer scientists." ITAA president Harris Miller

"We are not training enough American scientists and engineers to retain our prosperity ...." American Scientist magazine, 2001 a serious deficit of scientists and engineers resulting in an evaporating dominance. Dan Goldin, former NASA administrator, 2001 Demand for S&E Workers Recent Occupational Growth Growth Rates Engineering Average Annual Employment Growth, 1996-2001 Physical/Life/Computer Sciences and Mathematics Average Annual Employment Growth, 1996-2001 Electrical/Electronic Civil Computer Sys Analysts/Scientists Aerospace Atmospheric/Space Scientists Engineers, n.e.c. Medical scientists

Industrial Computer Programmers Mechanical Chemists Metallurgical/Materials Biological/Life Scientists Nuclear Geologists/Geodesists Petroleum Forestry/Conservation Chemical Mathematical Scientists Marine Agricultural/Food Scientists Mining Physical Scientists, n.e.c. Agricultural -15% -10%

-5% 0% 5% 10% SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce analysis of Department of Labor Current Population Survey data Physicists/Astronomers -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce analysis of Department of Labor Current Population Survey data Recent Occupational Growth Growth in Numbers Employment Growth in S&E Occupations 1996-2001, in thousands Computer Systems Analysts & Scientists Electrical/Electronic Engineers Computer Programmers Civil Engineers Medical Scientists Chemists Biological/Life Scientists

Aerospace Engineers Engineers, n.e.c. Atmospheric/Space Industrial Engineers Geologists/Geodesists Forestry/Conservation Scientists Mathematical Scientists, n.e.c. Agricultural Engineers Nuclear Engineers Agricultural/Food Scientists Metallurgical/Materials Engineers Petroleum Engineers Mining Engineers Physical Scientists, n.e.c. Physicists/Astronomers Marine Engineers Mechanical Engineer Chemical Engineers -100 0 100 200 SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce analysis of Department of Labor Current Population Survey data 300 400 500 600

700 800 Aggregate IT Employment 1999-2002 Change, 1999-2000 Number: 295,880 Percent: +12.6% 3,000,000 Change, 2000-2001 Number: -92,870 Percent: -3.5% Change, 2001-2002 Number :-42.090 Percent: -1.7% 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 1999 2000 2001

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of Technology Policy analysis of data from U.S. Department of Labor Occupational Employment Survey, 20002002, http://www.bls.gov/oes/oes_dl.htm 2002 IT Occupational Employment 1999-2002 Computer and Information Systems Managers Computer Hardware Engineers 2002 2001 Network Systems and Data Communications Analysts 2000 Network and Computer Systems Administrators 1999 Database Administrators Computer Systems Analysts Computer Support Specialists Computer Software Engineers, Systems Software Computer Software Engineers, Applications Computer Programmers Computer and Information Scientists, Research 0 100,000 200,000 300,000

400,000 500,000 SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of Technology Policy analysis of data from U.S. Department of Labor Occupational Employment Survey data, 2000-2002, http://www.bls.gov/oes/oes_dl.htm 600,000 Change in IT Occupational Employment Number, 2001-2002 Computer Systems Analysts Network Systems and Data Communications Analysts Network and Computer Systems Administrators Computer Hardware Engineers Computer and Information Scientists, Research Database Administrators Computer and Information Systems Managers Computer Software Engineers, Applications Computer Software Engineers, Systems Software Computer Support Specialists Computer Programmers (50,000) (40,000) (30,000) (20,000) (10,000) SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of Technology Policy analysis of data from U.S. Department of Labor Occupational Employment Survey, 2000-2002, http://www.bls.gov/oes/oes_dl.htm

- 10,000 20,000 30,000 Change in IT Occupational Employment Percentage, 2001-2002 Network Systems and Data Communications Analysts Computer Systems Analysts Network and Computer Systems Administrators Computer Hardware Engineers Computer and Information Systems Managers Computer Software Engineers, Applications Database Administrators Computer Software Engineers, Systems Software Computer Support Specialists Computer and Information Scientists, Research Computer Programmers -15% -10% -5% SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of Technology Policy analysis of data from U.S. Department of Labor Occupational Employment Survey, 2000-2002, http://www.bls.gov/oes/oes_dl.htm 0% 5% 10%

Salary Growth Annual Average Salary Increases, 1995-2000 All All Workers Aerospace Mechanical Civil Engineers Electrical/Eelectronic Engineers, n.e.c. Chemical Industrial Chemists Biological/Life Scientists Scientists Medical Scientists Computer Systems Analysts and Scientists Computer Programmers IT Workers 0% 1% 2%

3% SOURCE: Department of Commerce analysis of U.S. Department of Labor, Current Population Survey (Annual Averages) data 4% 5% 6% Salary Growth in IT Occupations 1999-2002 Computer and Information Systems Managers 2002 Computer and Information Scientists, Research 2001 Computer Hardware Engineers 2000 Computer Software Engineers, Systems Software 1999 Computer Software Engineers, Applications Computer Systems Analysts Computer Programmers Network Systems and Data Communications Analysts Database Administrators Network and Computer Systems Administrators Computer Support Specialists $-

$10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of Technology Policy analysis of data from U.S. Department of Labor Occupational Employment Survey, 2000-2002, http://www.bls.gov/oes/oes_dl.htm $70,000 $80,000 $90,000 $100,000 Percent Salary Growth in IT Occupations 1999-2002, 2001-2002 Computer and Information Systems Managers Computer and Information Scientists, Research Computer Hardware Engineers 1999-2002 Computer Software Engineers, Systems Software

2001-2002 Computer Software Engineers, Applications Computer Systems Analysts Computer Programmers Network Systems and Data Communications Analysts Database Administrators Network and Computer Systems Administrators Computer Support Specialists 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of Technology Policy analysis of data from U.S. Department of Labor Occupational Employment Survey, 2000-2002, http://www.bls.gov/oes/oes_dl.htm 6% 7% 8% Unemployment Rates Average Annual Unemployment Engineers, IT Workers, Professional Specialties 1983-2002 7

Engineers Computer system analysts and scientists Computer programmers Professional specialities 6 5 4 Percent 3 2 1 0 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 NOTE: The labor force and unemployed reported above include only the experienced unemployed, classified by the occupation of their last job. Computer system analysts and scientists includes computer analyst, computer scientist, computer-systems planning, computer-systems analyst, data processing consultant, information scientist, software specialist, and other occupations. Computer system analysts and scientists are classified within professional specialty occupations and computer programmers in technicians and related support occupations. Data for 2000-2002 have been revised to incorporate population controls from Census 2000. 1999 2000 2001 2002 IT, Science and Engineering Occupational Projections, 20022012 Employment, Numbers 5,000,000 4,500,000 2002 4,000,000 2012 3,500,000

3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 Professional IT Occupations Engineers Life Scientists Physical Scientists Natural Sciences Managers IT, Science and Engineering Occupational Projections, 2002-2012 Employment Growth: Rate 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Professional IT Occupations Engineers

Life Scientists Physical Scientists Natural Sciences Managers IT, Science and Engineering Occupational Projections, 2002-2012 Employment Growth: Numbers 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 Professional IT Occupations Engineers Life Scientists Physical Scientists Natural Sciences Managers

IT, Science and Engineering Occupational Projections, 2002-2012 Total Job Openings 1,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 Professional IT Occupations Engineers Life Scientists Physical Scientists Natural Sciences Managers Occupational Distribution of Projected S&E Job Openings (new jobs plus net replacements) 2002-2012 70% Engineers Information Technology

Life Scientists Physical Scientists Natural Science Managers IT, Science and Engineering Occupational Projections, 2002-2012 Job Growth: 2000-2010 vs. 2002-2012 2,500,000 2000-2010 2,000,000 2002-2012 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 Professional IT Occupations Engineers Life Scientists Physical Scientists Natural Sciences Managers

IT, Science and Engineering Occupational Projections, 2002-2012 Change in Growth: 2000-2010 vs. 20022012 200,000 0 Professional IT Occupations -200,000 -400,000 -600,000 -800,000 -1,000,000 -1,200,000 Engineers Life Scientists Physical Scientists Natural Sciences Managers IT, Science and Engineering Occupational Projections, 2002-2012 Projected IT Job Growth 2010 vs. 2012 Projections 7,000,000 6,000,000

5,000,000 A reduction of 1. 6 million jobs A reduction of more than 1 million jobs 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 2010 2012 2012 if previous trend of 5.2% annual growth had continued IT, Science and Engineering Occupational Projections, 2002-2012 Change in Total Openings: 2000-2010 vs. 20022012 3,000,000 2000-2010 2,500,000 2002-2012 2,000,000

1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 Professional IT Occupations Engineers Life Scientists Physical Scientists Natural Sciences Managers S&E Bachelors Degrees Life Sciences Up... 100% Psychology Biological/Agricultural Sciences 50% Social Sciences 0% 1986 1987 1988

1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 Physical Sciences 2000 Engineering Computer Science/Mathematics -50% ...Engineering, Physical Sciences, and Math Down Engineering Bachelors Degrees Half Empty or Half Full? 80,000 80,000

75,000 75,000 70,000 65,000 70,000 60,000 65,000 55,000 50,000 60,000 55,000 45,000 A 23 percent decline 40,000 since 1985 35,000 50,000 1985 1990 1995 2000

30,000 1975 or a 53 percent increase since 1976? 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Both, depending on your perspective 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 1966 1970 1974 1978

1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 The Market Perspective Degree Production vs. Projected Job Openings Annual Degrees and Job Openings in Broad S&E Fields 160,000 140,000 PhD Master's 120,000 Bachelor's Projected Job Openings 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 Engineering Physical Sciences Mathematical/ Computer Sciences

Biological/ Agricultural Sciences SOURCES: Tabulated by National Science Foundation/Division of Science Resources Statistics; degree data from Department of Education/National Center for Education Statistics: Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System Completions Survey; and NSF/S Earned Doctorates; Projected Annual Average Job Openings derived from Department of Commerce (Office of Technology Policy) analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics 2002-2012 projections RS: Survey of Engineering Degrees & Projected Job Openings 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 PhD Master's Bachelor's Projected Job Openings 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 Aero-/ Astronautical Chemical Civil Electrical*

Industrial Mechanical Materials/ Metallurgy** Other * Occupations include Electrical, Electronics, Computer Hardware Engineers ** There are an additional 400 jobs per year for Material Scientists (not shown here; included in the "Other Physical Sciences" category) SOURCES: Tabulated by National Science Foundation/Division of Science Resources Statistics; degree data from Department of Education/National Center for Education Statistics: Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System Completions Survey; and NSF/SRS: Survey of Earned Doctorates; Projected Annual Average Job Openings derived from Department of Commerce (Office of Technology Policy) analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics 2002-2012 projections Physical Sciences Degrees & Projected Job Openings 12,000 10,000 PhD Master's Bachelor's Projected Job Openings 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 Physics and Astronomy Chemistry

Earth, Atmospheric and Oceanographic Other Physical Science SOURCES: Tabulated by National Science Foundation/Division of Science Resources Statistics; degree data from Department of Education/National Center for Education Statistics: Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System Completions Survey; and NSF/S RS: Survey of Earned Doctorates; Projected Annual Average Job Openings derived from Department of Commerce (Office of Technology Policy) analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics 2002-2012 projections Mathematics and Computer Science Degrees & Projected Job Openings 160,000 140,000 120,000 PhD Master's Bachelor's Projected Job Openings 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 Mathematics Computer science SOURCES: Tabulated by National Science Foundation/Division of Science Resources Statistics; degree data from Department of Education/National Center for Education Statistics: Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System Completions Survey; and NSF/S Earned Doctorates; Projected Annual Average Job Openings derived from Department of Commerce (Office of Technology Policy) analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics 2002-2012 projections RS: Survey of

Biological and Agricultural Sciences Degrees & Projected Job Openings 70,000 60,000 PhD Master's Bachelor's Projected Job Openings 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 Agricultural science Biological science SOURCES: Tabulated by National Science Foundation/Division of Science Resources Statistics; degree data from Department of Education/National Center for Education Statistics: Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System Completions Survey; and NSF/SRS: Survey of Earned Doctorates; Projected Annual Average Job Openings derived from Department of Commerce (Office of Technology Policy) analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics 2002-2012 projections IT Education & Training Landscape How IT Workers Get and Maintain their Skills

IT Bachelors Degrees IT-Related Minors Combined IT Bachelors/Masters Degree Programs IT-Related Masters of Science Programs Techno MBAs Two-Year IT Degrees at Community Colleges IT Certificate Programs Private, For-Profit Education and Training Institutions Vendor and Vendor-neutral IT Certification Federal, State and Regional IT Training Initiatives Boot Camps and Seminars Employer Programs On-Line, CD-ROM, Books The Churn Professional Level IT Workers Hold a Wide Array of Science, Engineering and Other Degrees Educational Background of Professional-level IT Workers 100% Other Business 90% Social Sciences 80% 70%

Mathematics 60% Natural Sciences 50% Engineering other than Computer and Systems Engineering 40% IT Degrees, including: Computer & information sciences, general Computer science Computer systems analysis Information services and systems Other computer and information sciences Computer and systems engineering Computer programming 30% 20% 10% 0% Professional Level IT Workers Of professional level IT workers who hold bachelor's or higher level

degrees, 87.5% hold degrees in science, math or engineering Possible Niche Areas of Need Emerging Disciplines Converging Disciplines Industries Affected by Past/Current Federal Demand University Professors in High Demand Disciplines Federal S&E Employees: Unique Challenges Industries with Past Workforce Shocks Challenge to the Community: Action Amplify Market Signals Industry Feedback to Post-Secondary Institutions Post-Secondary Institutions Responsiveness to Market Demands Preparation for industry careers Technical skills in demand Soft and business skills Career Awareness in Middle, High School Dissemination of Occupational Data Demand, job characteristics, unemployment, etc. Improve Math and Science Education in K-12 Challenge to the Community: Action

Math and Science Education in K-12 Image of Scientists and Engineers S&E Career Awareness in Middle, High School Industry Feedback to Post-Secondary Institutions Post-Secondary Institutions Responsiveness to Market Demands Industry Must Help Itself Challenges to Growing Domestic S&E Workforce Cost-Benefit of Grad Education in S&E vs. Law, Business Challenges to Growing Domestic S&E Workforce Cost-Benefit of Grad Education in S&E vs. Law, Business Registered Time from Baccalaureate to Doctorate for Physical Sciences, Engineering, and Life Sciences, 2001 8 Median Age Median Age Median Age 30.6 31.2 31.8 Physical Sciences* Engineering

Life Sciences 7 6 5 4 (years) 3 2 1 0 Law School MBA Challenges to Growing Domestic S&E Workforce Cost-Benefit of Grad Education in S&E vs. Law, Business Attractiveness of Careers in S&E vs. Law, Business Strong Emphasis by Other Nations, Cultures on S&E Education Access to Foreign Labor in the U.S. (H-1B, L1) Access to Foreign Labor Abroad (Offshoringdirect and through contract) Significantly lower salary costs Pools of well-educated S&E talent Improved national infrastructure, political stability Large Government, Industry Focus on Health R&D Factors Supporting U.S. Ability to Grow Domestic S&E Workforce Premier Academic Research Institutions Elite Students Among Best in World Powerful Industrial Base, Potential Partners

in S&E Education and Training Money Talks! Contact Information John F. Sargent Senior Policy Analyst Office of Technology Policy, Technology Administration U.S. Department of Commerce 202-482-6185 [email protected] www.ta.doc.gov Census Bureau Projections Thru 2100 U.S. Race/Ethnic Composition, numbers 250,000 200,000 White Black 150,000 American Indian Asian and Pacific Islander Hispanic (in100,000 thousands) 50,000 0 2000

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of Technology Policy analysis of U.S Census Bureau Data, Population Projections, http://WWW.CENSUS.gov/population/www/projections/natsum-T5.html 2100 Census Bureau Projections Thru 2100 U.S. Race/Ethnic Composition, percent 80% White 70% Black American Indian Asian and Pacific Islander 60%

Hispanic 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of Technology Policy analysis of U.S Census Bureau Data, Population Projections, http://WWW.CENSUS.gov/population/www/projections/natsum-T5.html 2090

2100 Bachelors Degrees Awarded, by Gender 800,000 Women 700,000 Men 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000

S&E Bachelors Degrees, by Gender Bachelor's Degrees in Various S&E Disciplines As a Percent of All Bachelor's Degrees Earned By That Gender By Gender 2000 12% 10% 1.1:1 Men Women 5.2:1 1:2.4 1.1:1 8% 3.4:1 6% 4% 1.9:1 2% 1.5:1 2.0:1 0% Engineering Computer

Earth, Atmos. Physical Sciences & Ocean Sciences Sciences Mathematics Social Sciences Biological Sciences Psychology Womens Share of MEPS Bachelors Degrees Growing, Still Comparatively Low Share of Bachelor's Degrees in Physical Sciences, Engineering, Computer Science, Mathematics by Gender, 1966-2000 100% 90% 80% 70% Women Men 60%

50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 2000 Share of Bachelors Degrees in Each Field Earned by Women, 2000 Percentage of All Degrees Awarded in Each Field Earned by Women 2000 All Fields

Non-S&E Fields Total S&E Engineering Physical Sciences Computer Science Math Earth, Atmos. & Ocean Sciences Biological/Agricultural Sciences Psychology Social Sciences 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Share of Total U.S. S&E Bachelors Degrees Underrepresented Minorities' Share of Total U.S. Science and Engineering Bachelor's Degrees Citizens and Permanent Residents, 1991-2000 9.0

0.9 8.0 0.8 7.0 0.7 6.0 0.6 5.0 0.5 4.0 0.4 3.0 0.3 2.0 0.2 (Percent, Blacks and Hispanics) 1.0 0.1

0.0 0.0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 2000 (Percent, Native Amer S&E Bachelors Degrees, by Race Bachelor's Degrees in Various S&E Disciplines As a Percent of All Bachelor's Degrees Earned By That Group By Race, 2000 12% White, non-Hispanics 10% Asians/Pacific Islanders Black, non-Hispanics

Hispanics 8% American Indians or Alaskan Natives 6% 4% 2% 0% Engineering Physical Science Mathematics Computer Science Biological Science IT Occupational Growth Rate 5 Times Greater Than Natural Scientists, Engineers IT, Natural Scientists and Engineers Average Annual Employment Growth, 1996-2001 IT Occupations Natural Scientists Engineers 0% 2% 4%

6% 8% SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce analysis of Department of Labor Current Population Survey data 10% Occupational Growth Rates IT vs. All Occupations Growth Rate of Professional-level IT Occupations Outstrips Growth Rate for All Occupations Growth Rate of IT Occupations, All Occupations Since 1991 120% Computer systems analysts and scientists 100% All Occupations 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 , SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of Technology Policy analysis of U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics data, Current Population Survey 1990-2000, Household Data Annual Averages, Employed Persons S&E Occupational Growth Dominated by Information Technology Occupations Total Bachelors Degrees in Engineering, Physical Sciences, Computer Science and Mathematics Stable 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 1966 1969 1972

1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 2000 Science and Engineering, MEPS as a Share of All Bachelors Degrees 40% 35% 30% Science and Engineering 25% 20% Engineering, Physical Sciences, Computer Science and Mathematics 15%

10% 5% 0% 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 2000 Strong correlation between Federal R&D investments in MEPS and bachelors degree production in MEPS fields 90,000 y = 21064 + 1.029x R 2= 0.953

80,000 180000 80000 70,000 160000 60,000 140000 50,000 Dollars Math, E Students (constant 1996 d Federal R&D, $M Bachelo Year 70000 60000 120000 50000 100000

40,000 1953-1968 30,000 10 30 40 50 60 Federal R&D, Non-Biomedical constant (1996)B$ 40000 80000 20 200,000 y = -13561 + 2.4612x R2= 0.83663 30000 60000 150,000 20000

40000 10000 0 20000 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 100,000 0 2000 1970-1998 50,000 40

45 50 55 60 Federal R&D, Non-Biomedical constant (1996)B$ 65 70 Share of Total S&E Degrees Earned by Non-Resident Aliens, by Degree Level Share of U.S. Degrees Earned By Non-Resident Aliens in 2000, by Degree Level 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% BS PhD

Engineering BS PhD Physical Science BS PhD Mathematics BS PhD Computer Science BS PhD Biological Science U.S. Lags Other Nations in Share of 24Year-Olds With Natural Science, Engineering Degrees Also: The United States ranks 61st out of 63 nations in the share of S&E degrees

as a total of all bachelors degrees.

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