Energy for Alaska's Future

Energy for Alaska's Future

State of the Data: Migration, Fuel Costs, Community Viability Steve Colt Institute of Social and Economic Research University of Alaska Anchorage in partnership with Alaska Native Policy Center Joan Kane, Executive Director Full report: www.iser.uaa.alaska.edu/Home/ResearchAreas/fuelcosts.html Denali Commission 28 Feb 2008 Juneau Initial Research Questions Has migration accelerated? If so, who is moving, to where, and why? If so, are fuel costs a major driver? What other factors may be causing migration? How are fuel costs affecting subsistence participation? How are fuel costs affecting the viability of local governments, utilities, and local businesses? 7. Are there major factors other than fuel costs affecting community viability and migration, such as lack of employment? 8. Do regional patterns emerge? Can data be collected and reported regionally?

1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Topics for Today Migration flows Reasons for migration Role of fuel costs Other factors Opportunities for better data and better understanding ...a research memorandum and digital - Web literature archive are also being prepared Sources Major primary data sources: U.S. Census DOLWD (population, migration), DHHS (births, deaths) ISER Survey of Living Conditions in the Arctic (SLiCA): 2003; n=663 Natives; North Slope, Nana, Bering Straits

regions) First Alaskans Institute Attitudinal Survey (2007; n=902: 600 Natives + 302-non-Native; statewide) Literature: 40+ papers circa 1960-present, most of which use the same data sources SLiCA survey region Resource booms fueled statewide growth and migration Salmon boom shows Salmon permanent population WW2 / Military Gold does not always follow economic boom Pulses of migration shown in yellow source: ISER, Census, DOL Pipeline Oil money Net Migration Statewide 1980-2007 30000

25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 -5000980 1 -10000 82 9 1 84 9 1 -15000 -20000 -25000 source: AK DOL (pfd) 86 9 1

88 9 1 90 9 1 92 9 1 94 9 1 96 9 1 98 9 1 00 0 2

02 0 2 04 0 2 06 0 2 Net Migration: Rural Census Areas 1980-2007 4,000 Molly Hootch 3,000 Coast Guard - Kodiak 2,000 1,000 -2,000 -3,000 -4,000

?? - interpret with caution -5,000 -6,000 source: AK DOL (pfd) Adak Closed 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 1988

1986 1984 1982 -1,000 1980 0 Declining births may turn migration into absolute population decline 4,000 Molly Hootch 3,000 Coast Guard - Kodiak Births rural AK 2,000 1,000 -2,000

-3,000 -4,000 Net migration rural AK Revenue sharing ends -5,000 -6,000 Adak Closed source: DOL (pfd); DHHS births by mothers place of residence 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994

1992 1990 1988 1986 1984 1982 -1,000 1980 0 Wade-Hampton Census Area: More people born than leaving 300 250 200 150 100 50 -100

-150 source: DOL (pfd); DHHS births by mothers place of residence 20 06 20 04 20 02 20 00 19 98 19 96 19 94 19 92

19 90 19 88 19 86 4 19 8 -50 19 82 19 80 0 Births People leaving Overall, no long-term acceleration in migration

However, Rates vary dramatically across communities Smallest communities are losing population Of communities with 100 or fewer people in 2000, two-thirds have lost population. This has been going on for a long time (eg 1800s to present) (Alonso & Rust 1976) 0% -10% -30% Yukon Koyukuk Prince Wales Lake & Pen Aleutians West North Slope Bristol Bay Matsu SE Fairbanks

Kenai Aleutians East Anchorage Fairbanks Haines Juneau Sitka Nome Bethel Wade Hamp NWAB Kodiak Valdez Ketchikan

Dillingham Wrangell Denali Skgwy-Hoonah-Ang -20% Yakutat Cumulative net migration during 2000-2007 % of 2000 pop., by census area 30% 20% 10% Age structure of 21 of Alaskas smallest communities, year 2000 80 and up 70 to 79 Females

Males Age Cohorts 60 to 69 50 to 59 40 to 49 30 to 39 20 to 29 10 to 19 0 to 9 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2% 4% 6% Percent of total population, 2000

source: US Census 2000 8% 10% 12% Alaska age structure - 2000 80 and up 70 to 79 Females Males Age Cohorts 60 to 69 50 to 59 40 to 49 30 to 39 20 to 29 10 to 19 0 to 9 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% Percent of total population, 2000 Why are people moving? Fuel costs Other factors

Primary energy consumption per Alaskan barrels oil per person per year Barrels of Oil per Year Primary Energy Inputs per Alaskan 70 60 50 Wood and all other Other petroleum 40 Gasoline 30 Diesel 20 10 Hydro Alaska

Gas PCE Network places Other Coal Natural Gas Effect of recent fuel price run-up...... Average person in a PCE community uses 1,000 gal of diesel & gasoline Average price increase = $2.00/gal Arithmetic: $2,000 -- 8,000 increase per household per year (includes electricity, community buildings) source: ISER/Colt Energy Flow in Alaska 2005 Why did you move? FAI survey open-ended: Why did you move away from your rural community? What motivated you to go live somewhere else?

Alaska Native responde nts n=189 Nonnatives n=47 Work-related reasons Family 58% 22% 67% 5% Other opportunities New experiences 15% 12% 17% 23%

Other needs 5% 5% source: FAI Attitudinal Survey (2007) What would it take for you to return? (open-ended) What, if anything, Alaska would it take for you to Native move back to your respondents rural community? What would prompt n=113 you to go back to live there? Nonnatives n=28 Nothing / Dont Know Opportunities

67% 19% 76% 7% Family Other needs 4% 7% 14% 4% source: FAI Attitudinal Survey (2007) Broadly speaking, Neither FAI nor SLiCA respondents mention fuel costs in open-ended questions Social factors / Gorillas in the Room Alcohol Public safety Domestic violence Example to ponder: North Slope high wages, low fuel costs (subsidized),

police officers, subsistence opportunities People still leave 300 200 -200 -300 -400 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 1988

1986 1984 -100 1982 0 1980 100 Data Opportunities: secondary data DOL migration data based on PFD zip codes continue net migration by census area add net migration by age-sex add origin-destination add net migration by community Opportunities: new primary data Panel study of ANCSA shareholders Sample frame exists Attrition would be minimized provides Alaska-specific data (subsistence, quality

of life...) Person 1 Year 1 data Year 5 data Year 10 data .... Person 2 Year 1 data Year 5 data Year 10 data .... Person 3 Year 1 data Year 5 data Year 10 data

.... : etc. : Primary Data ANCSA shareholder survey does not pick up young people; hence, Survey of rural college students, rural high school students (tough), or similar subgroup FAI did pilot survey at AFN youth conference Other opportunities Comprehensive housing survey Omnibus social survey characteristics behavior expenditures attitudes Thank You! www.iser.uaa.alaska. edu www.firstalaskans.or

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