cau-ses.net

cau-ses.net

The next series of charts introduce some CSE principles that can help find solutions to complex SoS and enterprise problems. Break 1: With this continued introduction to the course, take some time to review these foregoing charts and organize your thoughts before continuing. But in the meantime also consider what questions or comments you might have and post some of them on our online discussion board. 02/27/2020 1 Complex Systems Engineering Principles 1. Bring Humility 2. Follow Holism 3. Achieve Balance 4. Utilize Trans-Disciplines ________ * Politics Operations, Economics, 5. Embrace POET* and Technology 6. Nurture Discussions 7. Pursue Opportunities 8. Formulate Heuristics 9. Foster Trust 10. Create Interactive Environment 11. Stimulate Self-Organization 12. Seek Simple Elements 13. Enforce Layered Architecture 14. Elevate Future Goals Lets next define each of these principles and try to amplify them, and then show how they might correlate. (White 2011) (White 2010) 02/27/2020 2 See Notes Page Abbreviated Principle Definitions (1/6) Humility (1/3) 1. Bring Humility Complex systems include many diverse, smart, knowledgeable, and independent people, and we must therefore bring more humility to improving complex systems, e.g., SoSs and enterprises, and trying to engineering their environments. Humility especially helps in understanding each others definitions, i.e., we dont need to fully agree on our use of words, although this would help us accelerate progress.

The study of complex systems is the study of the world as it is, not as we want it to be. Brenda Zimmerman (Zimmerman, Lindberg, and Plsek 1998) Edgeware Insights From Complex Systems Complex adaptive systems do pretty much as they damn please. (Holland 1995) (DeRosa 2007) (White 2011) (White 2010) 02/27/2020 Used with permission from The MITRE Corporation, Copyright 2011. 3 Humility (2/3) Some Thoughts on Humility The first product of self-knowledge is humility. Flannery OConnor www.reflectionforthe day.com. Tom Fitzpatrick. All rights reserved. The Boston Globe, 15 August 2012, p. G27 Mary Flannery OConnor (March 25, 1925 August 3, 1964) was an American writer and essayist (Wikipedia, Flannery OConnor, 2012, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flannery_O'Connor) Humility, it is sometimes said, doesnt mean thinking less of yourself. It means thinking of yourself less. Jeff Jacoby, Wheres the humility? The Boston Globe, p. A13, 15 August 2012. This editorial is mainly about Jamaicas Usain Bolt, the two-time Olympic Champion (2012 and 2008) in 100 m, 200 m, and 4100 m relay races. Other sports examples abound, Carli Lloyd (womens soccer), Ted Williams (baseball), Michael Phelps (swimming), Kobe Bryant (basketball), and [other additions:] Tiger Woods (golf) and Mohammad Ali (boxing) (Time, The 100 Most Influential People Of All Time, New York: Time Home Entertainment Inc. 2012, p. 119.) 02/27/2020 4 Humility (3/3) Re: 1. Bring Humility This principle has been attacked as unprofessional. What do you think? Consider commenting on our discussion board. Simple fixes often dont work in complex situations. One must watch and be prepared to try something else. But one is rarely sure just how long to wait. 02/27/2020 5

See Notes Page Abbreviated Principle Definitions (2/6) 2. Follow Holism One should not use reductionism; use constructivism (Hester and Adams 2013) Complex system and its environment will have moved Fundamental problem with government system acquisitions 3. Achieve Balance Optimizing sub-systems detracts from efficacy of whole Try to balance various sub-system thrusts 4. Utilize Trans-Disciplines People are part of system. Trans-disciplines like philosophy, psychology, sociology, organizational change theory and management, economics, and politics apply . (White 2011) (White 2010) 02/27/2020 The next three charts illustrate the meaning of the Utilize Trans-Disciplines CSE principle. 6 See Notes Page Examples of Multi-Disciplinary Engineering and Systems Engineering Specialties Electrical Industrial Engineering Civil A Box 02/27/2020 Mechanical Sensor Technology Note: There is Also Program Management, of course Information Technology

Systems Engineering Digital Communications Software Development Dont Forget to Think Outside the Box. Another Box 7 See Notes Page Example of Inter-Disciplinary Systems Engineering Information Technology Systems Engineering Sensor Technology & Program Management Yet Another Box Digital Communications Dont Forget to Think Outside the Box. Software Development 02/27/2020 8 See Notes Page Example of Trans-Disciplinary Complex Systems Engineering Culture Operations Quality of Life Economics Systems Thinking

Psychology Technology Politics Organization al Change Theory and Management Sociology Really, There is No Box! Philosophy 02/27/2020 9 See Notes Page Abbreviated Principle Definitions (3/6) 5. Embrace POET (Politics, Operations, Economics, and Technology) Deal with all four aspects Understand stakeholders values 6. Nurture Discussions Every person sees differently No one grasps whole truth Leverage groups cognitive diversity Understand how words are used Time spent arguing is, oddly enough, almost never wasted. Christopher Hitchens (www.reflectionforthe day.com - Tom Fitzpatrick, The Boston Globe, 31 January 2013, p. G31. 7. Pursue Opportunities Too much emphasis on identifying/mitigating risks Principal risk is not pursuing opportunities Strike balance The next three charts illustrate a good way to stimulate the Nurture Discussions CSE principle. (White 2011) (White 2010) 02/27/2020 10 Re: Nurturing Discussions - The Enneagram Web*

9/0 Identity Self-Organization Domains 1 Intention Structure/Context 8 Living Systems Patterns and Processes 2 Issues Command and Control Pattern and Process Learning 7 Numerology Coincidences? Octet: 0-7 order is logical Whole circle is one Living beings order: 1/7 = 0.1428571 3 Relationships Information 6 The Work 5 (White 2008a) 02/27/2020 4 Principles & Standards ____________ * (Knowles, 2002, pp. 30, 32, 33, and 39) Used with permission from The MITRE Corporation, Copyright 2011. 11 Some Questions for the Nine Enneagram Perspectives* (1/2) Point 0 (Identity): Who are we? What is our Identity? What is our history, individually and collectively? Point 1 (Intention): What are we trying to do? What are our Intentions? What is the future potential? Point 2 (Issues): What are the problems and Issues facing us? What are our dilemmas, paradoxes and questions? Point 3 (Relationships): What are our Relationships like? How are we connected to others we need in the system? What is the quality of these connections? Are there too many or too few of them?

Point 4 (Principles and Standards): What are our Principles and Standards of behavior? What are our ground-rules, really? What are the un-discussable behaviors that go on, over and over? Point 5 (Work): What is our Work? On what are we physically working? (White 2008a) 02/27/2020 ____________ * (Knowles 2002, pp. 28-29) Note: Above text has been changed to read as us, not them. Used with permission from The MITRE Corporation, Copyright 2011. 12 Some Questions for the Nine Enneagram Perspectives* (2/2) Point 6 (Information): Do we know what's going on? How do we create and handle Information? Point 7 (Learning): Are we Learning anything? What are our Learning processes? What is the future potential? Point 8 (Structure and Context): How are we organized? What is our Structure? Where does the energy come from that makes things happen in our organization? Is our hierarchy deep or flat? What's happening in the larger environment, in which we're living and trying to thrive? Who are our competitors and what are they doing? What is the Context or surrounding environment in which we are living and working? Point 9 (Our New Identity): After weve moved through these questions, how has our Identity changed? Have we expanded and grown? What new things do we now know? What new skills do we now have? ____________ * (Knowles 2002, pp. 28-29) Note: Above text has been changed to read as us, not them. (White 2008a) 02/27/2020 A Good Schema Might Help Discussions Used with permission from The MITRE Corporation, Copyright 2011. 13

Notes on Schemas (1/2) Definition of Schema One can Google various definitions; heres one thats reasonable http://psychology.about.com/od/sindex/g/def_schema.ht A schema is a cognitive framework or concept that helps organize and interpret information. Schemas can be useful because they allow us to take shortcuts in interpreting the vast amount of information that is available in our environment. However, these mental frameworks also cause us to exclude pertinent information to instead focus only on things that confirm our pre-existing beliefs and ideas. Schemas can contribute to stereotypes and make it difficult to retain new information that does not conform to our established ideas about the world. Principle 6. Nurture Discussions 02/27/2020 Every person sees differently No one grasps whole truth Leverage groups cognitive diversity Understand how words are used 14 Notes on Schemas (2/2) Kent Palmers Schema Tentative hierarchy (schemas nest, i.e., each schema is an emergent level of organization of understanding projected on the world) Pluriverse (multiple physical worlds that interfere with each other to create quantum phenomena)(investigated by instruments) Kosmos (investigated by instruments) A focus on wholeness World (highest level that humans experience) whole less than sum of parts Domain (coherentMeta-System sets of horizons) Holon horizon) whole equal to sum of parts Meta-system (establishes System [what we System systemsengineers are usually with] whole greater than concerned sum of parts Form (not content which is completely different) Pattern (smallest scale that humans experience) Monad (smallest determinable element; investigated by instruments) Facet (non-isolatable; investigated by instruments) Principle 2. Follow Holism For more, refer to:

One should Pairings not use reductionism; use Kent D. Palmer, Ph.D., 2002, Advanced Schemas Theory for Schemas constructivism Engineers Chapter 3 of the Anti-thesis, https://www.academia.edu/3795667/Schemas_Theory_Schemas_Theory_Intr Complex system and its environment will have oduction moved Kent Palmer, 2000, General Schemas Theory New General Schemas Theory: Systems, Holons, Meta-Systems & Worlds, Research Toward a Fundamental problem with government system General Theory of Systems SIG, ISSS 2000 acquisitions 02/27/2020 15 See Notes Page Abbreviated Principle Definitions (4/6) 8. Formulate Heuristics Devise rules-of-thumb to help decision-makers Time delays are tantamount 9. Foster Trust Establishing trust is difficult and can be lost immediately Try sharing some information If echoed, share more and more. You might be interested in a paper (White 2012) that seems to show that decision-making has a stronger emotional (compared to rational) content than is conventionally acknowledged. What do you think about this? Consider sharing your ideas on our discussion board. (White 2011) (White 2010) 02/27/2020 16 See Notes Page Abbreviated Principle Definitions (5/6) 10. Create Interactive Environment Establish/maintain interactions and their reward structures Act and be responsive

Dont fight systems that cannot be influenced Solicit inputs from external observers 11. Stimulate Self-Organization* This is natural state for living elements ___________ * Many corporations are starting to come together to collaborate in sustaining our environment while making their own operations more effective, efficient, and profitable. (Senge, et al. 2008) (White 2011) (White 2010) 02/27/2020 17 See Notes Page Abbreviated Principle Definitions (6/6) 12. Seek Simple Elements SE solutions are often too big and/or complicated Design down-scale and assemble smaller adaptable units 13. Enforce Layered Architecture Apply layering principles Each layer can be adapted to different conditions Keep interface(s) between layers unchanged 14. Elevate Future Goals [Note: Update other charts] Endeavor with Others to Help Solve World Problems Now consider how these fourteen CSE principles might correlate, and further, how they might correlate with the CS behaviors (of Session 1). (White 2011) (White 2010) (White 2016b) 02/27/2020 18 See Notes Page Complex System Engineering (CSE) Principles Correlation Matrix 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

9 10 11 12 13 Avg. 1 1.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.22 2 0.0 1.0 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1

0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.14 3 0.1 0.2 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.12 4 0.2 0.1 0.2 1.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0

0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.13 5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.07 6 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.0 0.1 0.1

0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.12 7 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 1.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.13 8 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 1.0

0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.08 9 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.10 10 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0

0.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.14 11 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.3 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.14 12 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0

0.1 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.1 0.05 13 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.07 Avg. 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 4 8 6 9 8 2 6 4 3 6 2 6 6 02/27/2020 19

See Notes Page Correlation Matrix of Impact of CS Behaviors on CSE Principles 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Avg. A 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 B

0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.15 0.1 0.15 C 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 D 0.1 0.2

0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 E 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 F 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3

0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 G 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 H 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0

0.1 0.0 I 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 J 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.2 K 0.2

0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 L 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 M 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.12 0.2 0.21 0.2 0.20 0.2 0.20 0.2 0.17 0.0 0.08 0.0 0.05 0.2 0.15 0.2 0.19 0.1 0.15 0.1 0.10 Avg. 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 7 5 8 8 0 1 3 1 0 7 2 8 2 02/27/2020 20 See Notes Page Correlation Matrix of Impact of CSE Principles on CS Behaviors A B C D E F

G H I J K L 1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2

0.2 0.1 3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 5 0.1

0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 6 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1

0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2

0.1 0.2 0.2 10 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.1 11 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 12

0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 13 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 M Avg. 0.0 0.08 0.0 0.12 0.1 0.12 0.1 0.12 0.1 0.08

0.1 0.13 0.0 0.07 0.0 0.08 0.1 0.10 0.2 0.19 0.1 0.19 0.0 0.05 0.3 0.08 Avg. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 7 9 7 6 2 8 2 2 5 5 5 6 8 02/27/2020 21 The next series of charts introduces a relatively new concept, anti-fragility, which is covered in detail because of its importance in understanding SoSs, enterprises, and CSs. Also, the relationships between anti-fragility and CS behaviors and CSE principles are indicated. Break 2: Feel free to refresh yourself before we continue. 02/27/2020 22 Antifragility* (1/14) Fragile Robust Antifragile (p. 21) Definition and Characteristics (pp. 5-6) Anything that has more upside than downside from random events (or certain shocks) is antifragile; the reverse is fragile. Complex systems are weakened, even killed, when deprived of stressors. Principle 12. Seek Simple Elements Everything bottom-up thrives under the right amount of stress and SE solutions are often too big and/or complicated disorder. Top-down is usually irreversible, so mistakes tend

to stick, whereas bottom-up is Design down-scale and assemble smaller adaptable gradual and incremental, with creation and destruction along the way. (p. 324) units Thou shalt not have antifragility at the expense of the fragility of others. We can evenLayered measure, fragility and antifragility, while we Principle 13.estimate, Enforce Architecture cannot calculate risks and probabilities of shocks and rare events. Apply layering principles [Black Swans (Taleb 2007)] (p. 8) Each layer can be adapted topeople different conditions A complex system, contrary to what believe, does not require complicated systems and regulations and intricate policies. The Keep interface(s) between layers unchanged simpler, the better. an intervention leads to unforeseen consequences. (p. 9) [But complex systems can only be engineered by intervention!] __________ * Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Taleb 2012) 02/27/2020 Taleb is just warning against nave intervention. (p. 119) 23

Antifragility (2/14) If you want to become antifragile, put yourself in the situation loves mistakes to the right of hates mistakes by making these numerous and small in harm. (p. 21) Antifragility makes something stronger, more than merely robust. (pp. 45-6) Risk management professionals look in the past for information on the so-called worst-case scenario. [Think of the Thanksgiving turkey! (p. Behavior C. Acts Robustly 93)] Population offor healthy canbefore, survive harshworse Nature prepares what hassystem not happened assuming harm is possible. [Gardeners understand that pruning trees strengthens environments them! (p. 105)] Pay to flexibility adaptability Do notattention mistake evidence of absenceand for absence of evidence! (pp. 214, 235) E.g., no evidence of disease is not evidence of no disease (p. 337) Information in antifragile; it feeds more on attempts to harm it than it does on efforts to promote it. (p. 49) 02/27/2020 24 Antifragility (3/14) Why is Big Data the current rage?! Most of it seems meaningless and not particularly useful. Why would anyone want it?! (pp. 127-8) [Please feel free to give some reasons why here.] Thanks to the medias glorification of the anecdote, we are living more and more in virtual reality, separated from the real world, a little bit more every day while realizing it less and less. We are living in a more and more fragile world, while [erroneously] thinking it is more and more understandable. The best way to mitigate interventionism is to ration the supply of

information, [data?] as naturalistically [but how?] as possible. This is hard to accept in the age of the Internet. [Any Principle 9. Foster Trust suggestions?] Establishing is the difficult and can be going lost on. The more data trust you get, less you know whats immediately People are still under the illusion that science means more data.sharing some information Try 02/27/2020 If echoed, share more and more. 25 Antifragility (4/14) Evolution only works because of its antifragility; it is in love with stressors, randomness, uncertainty, and disorder (p. 67) While individual organisms are relatively fragile, the gene pool takes advantage of shocks to enhance its fitness. Organisms need to die for nature to be antifragile nature is opportunistic, ruthless, and selfish. Avoidance Behavior A. Surprising Emergence of small mistakes makes the large ones more severe. 85) Favored(p.definition: emergence is unexpected The most stable country in the world (Switzerland) does Surprises not easily explained are especially interesting not have a (large central) government. It is stable Behavior B. itEvolves Own as a Whole because does not on haveIts one.

(p. 87) What governs them is entirely bottom-up, municipal of sorts, System does whatever it pleases regional entities called cantons, near-sovereign mini-states Interactions make overall behavior unpredictable united in a confederation. 02/27/2020 26 Antifragility (5/14) A theory is a very dangerous thing to have. (p. 116) What do you think this means? Many think theory comes first, once it is developed over time, and Activity 6: Stimulate Natural Processes then this theory guides our (engineering) practice. However,stir Continually the potmore seeking further innovate it seems likelytothat theory derivesand fromintegrate. specific experiences infrequent practice,interactions and is mainlytoused to competition provide practical Encourage foster and techniques that among can be applied more general situations. cooperation Systemin constituents.

The theory confirms theconsidering practice, not opportunity the other way and around. Manage uncertainty risk. We dont propose, put theories into practice. We createnew theories out of Design, conduct, and evaluate concepts. practice. Activity Develop in Operational Environs The7: theory is the child of the cure, not the opposite. (p. 221) Develop evolutionary System with users We think of cybernetics as improvements invented by Norbert Wienerininoperational 1948. surroundings andhistorian circumstances. However, the of engineering David Mindell debunked this. He showed that safety. Wiener was articulating ideas about feedback control and digital Emphasize computing that had long been in practice in the engineering world. (pp. 221-2) Participate in field experimentation. Use laboratories for prototyping and subsystems. 02/27/2020 27 Antifragility (6/14) (p. 248) Famous speculator, a hugely successful man: Much of what other people know isnt worth knowing. What one needs to know for a profession, is

necessarily what lies outside the corpus, as far away from the center as possible. There is something central in following ones own direction Principle UtilizeofTrans-Disciplines in the4. selection readings. What I was in school I have forgotten; what I People aregiven part to of study system. decided to read on my own, I still remember. 02/27/2020 Trans-disciplines like philosophy, psychology, sociology, organizational change theory and management, economics, and politics apply 28 Antifragility (7/14) (p. 259) Exposure is more important than knowledge, and decision effects supersede logic. The need to focus on the payoff from your actions instead of studying the structure of the world (or understanding the True and the False) has been largely missed in intellectual history. The payoff, what happens to you (the benefits or harm from it), is always most important thing, not the event itself. Activity 4: the Reward Results Philosophers about truth and and falsehood. People in life talk to Work with Systemtalk stakeholders a governing body about payoff, exposure, and consequences (risks and rewards), Establish incentive structures that motivate developers to hence fragility and antifragility. desirable rapidly.

realize Decision making outcomes is based on more payoffs, not knowledge. (p. 337) Judge outcomes that decisions ensue, andyou reward in if you Think about significant havecontributors made and see proportion how well the mission ismost, satisfied. conclude thattoalmost all of them, if not have had asymmetric Publicize the rewards information on what was payoff, withwith one supporting side carrying a larger consequence accomplished andthat why. than the other, and you decide principally based on fragility, not probability. Do not cross a river if it is on average four feet deep. (p. 295) 02/27/2020 The notion of average is of no significance when one is fragile to variations. 29 Antifragility (8/14) Understanding the future (pp. 314-5)

To understand the future, you do not need techno-autistic jargon, obsession with killer apps, etc. You just need the following: some respect for the past, some curiosity about the historical record, a hunger for the wisdom of the elders, and a grasp of the notion of heuristics. Contemplating the past (p. 215) Consider the role of heuristic knowledge embedded in traditions. An idea survives, not because its better than the competition, but because the person who holds it has survived! My sadness is that we have been moving farther and farther away from grandmothers [and the wisdom they impart]. Behavior F. Stimulates Different Perspectives 02/27/2020 Build new and interrelated ideas collectively Continually nudge system in desired direction 30 Antifragility (9/14) Barbell (or bimodal) strategy (p. 161-3) Playing it safe (be paranoid) in some areas (protect yourself from extreme harm of negative Black Swans) Taking a lot of small risks (be aggressive) in others (be open to unexpected gains of positive Black Swans) Yiddish proverb: Provide for the worst; the best can take care of itself. If I have nothing to lose then it is all gain and I am antifragile. (p. 157) Principle 3. Achieve Balance Optimizing sub-systems detracts from efficacy of whole Try to balance various sub-system thrusts 02/27/2020 31 Antifragility (10/14) Option = asymmetry + rationality (p. 183) If you have optionality, you dont have much need for intelligence, knowledge, insight, skills. For you dont have to be right that often. All you need is the wisdom to not do unintelligent things to hurt yourself and recognize favorable outcomes when they occur. (p. 180) Its not about luck, but about optionality. (p. 181) There is7.noPursue evidence that strategic planning works Principle Opportunities even seememphasis to have evidence

against it. A weToo much on identifying/mitigating risks scholar, Starbuck debunked the management Principal risk is notWilliam pursuing opportunities of planningbalance it makes the corporation effectiveness Strike an appropriate between risk and option-blind, as it gets locked into a non-opportunistic opportunity course of action. (p. 234) 02/27/2020 32 Antifragility (11/14) (pp. 233-4) The author Matt Ridley (with a background in Principle 10. Create Interactive Environment argues that the differenceand between humans biology) Establish/maintain interactions their reward and animals lies in our ability to collaborate, engage structures and let ideas copulate. in business, Act and be responsive Dont fight systems that cannot be influenced Collaboration hasfrom a nonlinear

Solicit inputs externalexplosive observersupside. Behavior K. Self-Organized Since you cannot forecast collaborations and cannot direct Encourage purposeful human interactions them, you cannot see where the world is going. All can do isSelf-Organization create an environment that Principle 11.you Stimulate collaborations. [That is something good facilitates This is natural state for living elements leaders do.] 02/27/2020 33 Antifragility (12/14) Activity 5: Formulate Decision-Making Heuristics Intentional inaction is sometimes better than acting. Discover heuristics that improve decision-making Actsmanagement of omission, not doing something, are not considered processes. acts and do not appear to be part of ones mission. (p. 302) Discuss potential decisions with stakeholders. Decision-makers (who are generally paidsuch to make

decisions) Jointly assess if enough information exists to make decisions, and take sometimes benefit from either not making a decision or appropriate action otherwise. Support the stakeholders theysufficient take action.time has elapsed to better delaying a decision as until Observe andwhat recordisSystem behavior. observe happening. Share useful heuristics with others. Good8.heuristics needed to help decision-makers Principle Formulateare Heuristics to make decisions, as well decide Devise when rules-of-thumb to help decision-makers better Time delays are tantamount decisions. as to make Less-is-more can aid decision making. Principle 1. Bring idea Humility Contrary to the method of a series of pros and cons side by side Complex systems include people, and we must bring more If you have more than one reason to do something just dont do humility

it! to engineering the environment of complex systems, enterprises. e.g., Simple rules of thumb are not perfect, and they should be Humility especially helps in understanding each others so designed. Adopting some intellectual humility and definitions, i.e., we dont need to fully agree on our use of words, abandoning the aim at sophistication can yield powerful although this would help us accelerate progress. 02/27/2020 34 effects. (p. 305) Note on Group Decision-Making (Diamond 2005, pp. 420-1, 428-9) Perhaps D. Tainters book, The of Complex Societies (Tainter Behavior Thrives on Collapse Diversity is the most cited book on societal collapses. Tainter said 1988) Intricate and multifarious interrelationships Complex societies are characterized by centralized* decision-making [like the SovietE. Union?], high information Behavior Many Factorsflowat[really? Playnot just data?], great coordination of parts, formal channels of command [yes, but thats top-down], and pooling of Seek shared ideas/preferences and aware discord resources. Much of this structure seems to have thebe capability [notof necessarily!], if not the designed purpose, of countering fluctuations and deficiencies in Identify

and build common ground productivity. It is curious that they would collapse when faced with precisely those conditions they are equipped to circumvent. [thats debatable] complex societies are not likely to collapse through failure to manage their environment Expect change resources [despite the tragedy of the commons?]. Behavior G. Ever Changing Establish Diamond said process for managing uncertainty Yet it is clear from all the cases discussed in this book [Diamonds] that precisely such a failure has happened repeatedly. How did so many societies make such bad mistakes?* Factors contributing to failures of group decision making; not 02/27/2020 Anticipating a problem before it arrives Perceiving that problem when it does arrive Even trying to solve the problem Solving the problem ____________ * Au contraire! What about adopting a more decentralized, self-organized, bottom-up, wisdom(as opposed to data)-based approach?! 35 Antifragility (13/14) (pp. 302-3) Charlatans are recognizable in giving you only positive advice, exploiting our gullibility and sucker-proneness for recipes that hit you in a flash as just obvious, then evaporate later. Just look at the how to books with, in their title, Ten steps for Yet in practice the negative is used by pros: chess grandmasters usually win by not losing; people become rich by not going bust; ____________ religions are mostly about interdicts*; learning of life is about * Interdict: Prevent someone

from doing something. Behavior H. Informs the Observer what to avoid. Try One to cannot really tell if a successful person has skills, or if a person observe objectively with skills will succeed but are we can predict that a person devoid of Understand solutions often iatrogenic (Hester skills will eventually fail. and Adams 2013), i.e., they often create more and or bigger problems than they solve. Behavior I. Performs Openly 02/27/2020 Try to interpret specific causes of observed effects 36 Antifragility (14/14) (pp. 303-5) The greatest and most robust contribution to knowledge consists in removing what we think is wrong. We know a lot more what is wrong than what is right. Principle 6. Nurture Discussions Disconfirmation is more rigorous than confirmation. Failure Everyand person sees differently

disconfirmation are more informative than success is more robust. and Noconfirmation; one graspsnegative whole knowledge truth Keeping ones distance from an ignorant person is equivalent Leverage groups cognitive diversity to keeping company with a wise man. Understand how as words used What you dont know true isare fragile and speculative; do not take what might be true seriously to avoid harm in case it turns out to be false. [Think of black swans in Australia. ] 02/27/2020 37 The following series of charts focuses on leadership, a critical ingredient for enabling successful SoS, enterprise, and CSE. In essence: Lets include leadership in engineering management because leadership and management are complementary both leaders and managers are needed! Consider some attributes of leaders and managers and leadership/management engineering aspects. What about leadership in very complex systems? How does complexity leadership relate to CS behaviors and CSE principles? What are the irrefutable laws of leadership, if any? Is charisma a required trait of excellent leaders? An iceberg is good metaphor for leadership. What is the HEART of leadership? Break 3: But first feel free to refresh yourself. 02/27/2020 38 Leadership and Management Are Both Important Leadership is generally viewed as overlapping but complementary to management (as will be depicted on the next chart). Some positive attributes often associated with good leaders and managers appear below. Those attributes that seem to be more characteristic in distinguishing leaders and managers are indicated in bold-faced type. Leadership Attributes: Active, Admired, Ambitious, Analytical, Astute, Aware, Big-Picture Oriented, Brave, Broad-Minded, Caring, Charismatic, Clear, Communicative, Compassionate, Competent, Conceptual, Confident, Cooperative, Courageous, Creative, Curious, Daring, Dependable, Determined, Diplomatic, Economical, Effective, Expressive, Fair-Minded, Faithful, Flexible, Forward-Looking, Friendly, Gregarious, Honest, Humble, Idealistic, Imaginative, Independent, Industrious, Informed, Inspiring, Intelligent, Intuitive,

Loyal, Mature, Opportunistic, Original, Patient, Persistent, Political, Principled, Private, Proactive, ResultsOriented, Right-Brained, Self-Controlled, Sensible, Sincere, Spontaneous, Steadfast, Straightforward, Supportive, Trusting, Willing, Visionary, Zealous Management Attributes: Accountable, Active, Admired, Ambitious, Analytical, Anxious, Astute, Aware, Bottom-Line Oriented, Caring, Clear, Communicative, Compassionate, Competent, Controlling, Cooperative, Courageous, Detail Oriented, Dependable, Determined, Diplomatic, Confident, Economical, Efficient, Expressive, Fair-Minded, Flexible, Forward-Looking, Friendly, Gregarious, Honest, Independent, Industrious, Informed, Intelligent, Left-Brained, Mature, Measured, Meticulous, Operational, Opportunistic, Persistent, Political, Principled, Private, Proactive, Protective, Results-Oriented, Self-Controlled, Sensible, Sincere, Steadfast, Skeptical, Straightforward, Supportive, Technical, Willing, Zealous Good leadership, particularly considering attributes in bold, tends to be more critical than good management for achieving desirable outcomes envisioned by principal stakeholders. (White 2015a) (White 2016c) 02/27/2020 39 Leadership and Management Attributes Overlap Big-Picture Oriented, Brave, Broad-Minded, Charismatic, Conceptual, Creative, Curious, Daring, Effective Leadership Attributes Faithful, Humble, Idealistic, Imaginative, Inspiring, Intuitive, Loyal, Original, Patient, Right-Brained, Spontaneous, Trusting, Visionary 02/27/2020 Active, Admired, Ambitious, Analytical, Astute, Aware, Caring, Clear, Communicative, Compassionate, Competent, Confident, Cooperative, Courageous, Dependable, Determined, Diplomatic, Economical, Expressive, Fair-Minded Joint Attributes Flexible, Forward-Looking Friendly, Gregarious, Honest, Independent, Industrious, Informed, Intelligent, Mature, Opportunistic, Persistent, Political, Principled, Private, Proactive, Results Oriented, SelfControlled, Sensible, Sincere, Steadfast, Straightforward, Supportive, Willing, Zealous Accountable, Anxious,

Bottom-Line Oriented, Controlling, Detail Oriented Management Attributes Efficient, Left-Brained, Measured, Meticulous, Operational, Protective, Skeptical, Technical 40 Leadership/Engineering Management Aspects 02/27/2020 Leadership/Management Style Vision/Mission Emphases Consider leaders and Short/Medium/Long-Term Focus System Boundary Definitions managers you have Contingency Planning Thrusts People Relationships Characterizations known. How would Humble/Confident/Conceited Attributes Selfish/Selfless-ness Tendencies Information Sharing/Trust Building they stack up in each Career/Program-Orientations Decision-Making Techniques of these aspects? Timeliness/Delay Awareness Political/Operational/Economic/Technical Considerations Technical Competencies Opportunity Pursuit/Risk Mitigation Trade-Offs Success/Adversity Handling Adaptability/Evolutionary Capacities 41 See Notes Page Complexity Leadership (1/5)

In a key paper by Bill McKelvey entitled "Complexity leadership: the secret of Jack Welch's success" (McKelvey 2010), McKelvey's offers what it takes to be a successful leader of a company. McKelvey uses company profit and return on shareholder investment as the only measure of success. [Perhaps a better metric would be the extent to which there is increased value for the public interest. ] McKelvey offers a list of twelve "action-disciplines" to encompass what it takes to be a successful leader in a highly complex environment, particularly one containing people: 1. Adaptive tension 2. Draconian incentives 3. Critical values 4. Attractor cages 5. Heterogeneous agents 6. Built human capital 7. Weak tie flooding 8. Moderate networking 9. Modular design 10. Appropriate physical proximity 11. Co-evolution and Scalability 12. Coaching. These characteristics are all explained in detail McKelvey's paper where he makes point that even Welch was not aware of what specific elements made for success. agree these characteristics are quite relevant. Accordingly, the apparent overlap with complex system behaviors and complex systems engineering principles is detailed in next two charts. 02/27/2020 the We the the 42 See Notes Page Complexity Leadership (2/5) Action Discipline 1. Adaptive tension 2. Draconian 3. Critical values 4. Attractor cages 5. Heterogeneous agents 02/27/2020 Key Words Complex System Behavior(s) imposition and creation, phase transitions, facing reality, continual change and evolution incentivized opportunities and novelties, diversity, removed

boundaries, simple rules emergence, variety, options, abrupt transitions, networking, innovating, sharing subordinate opportunities, unpredictable non-linear dynamics, tension to perform diversity, agent heterogeneity, social innovation B, C, E, G, H, J Complex Systems Engineering Principle(s) 2, 3, 7, 10, 11 B, D, F, J 2, 4, 5, 7, 8, 10, 12 A, D, E, F, G, J 4, 5, 6, 7, 10, 11 A, B, E, G, K 2, 7, 8, 10, 11 D, F, J 4, 5, 6, 10 43 See Notes Page Complexity Leadership (3/5) Action Discipline 6. Build human capital 7. Weak tie flooding 8. Moderate networking 9. Modular design 10. Appropriate physical proximity 11. Coevolution & Scalability 12. Coaching 02/27/2020 Key Words Complex System

Behavior(s) agent heterogeneity, pertinent networked knowledge, trust/cohesion/efficiency weak ties, agent heterogeneity, mix employees power-law connections, strong/weak ties within/across organizations, move stars empowerment but not total autonomy, fewer layers and wider spans of management person-to-person communication; weak-tie connections and networking heterogeneity, barrier erosion, interactions, damping, evolution, butterfly effects, management support, customer satisfaction facilitate networking D, F, J Complex Systems Engineering Principle(s) 1, 4, 5, 6, 9, 10, 12, 13 D, E, F, G, M 3, 4, 5, 10, 11,13 H, J, K, M 3, 6, 7, 8, 9,10, 11 K, M 9, 10, 11,12, 13 D, F, J, K 4, 5, 6, 9,10, 11 D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L 4, 5, 6, 9, 10, 11 D, F, H, J, K 4, 5, 6, 10, 11 44 See Notes Page

Complexity Leadership (4/5) There is considerable overlap between the CS behaviors of Session 1 and CSE principles of this Session 2* with each action discipline. The Create Interactive Environment principle(10) overlaps with all twelve action disciplines. Internal and External Relationships(J) and Self-Organization(K) behaviors are next with nine overlaps each. Diversity(D), Perspectives(F), Trans-Disciplines(4), and POET(5) are also prevalent with eight overlaps each. Discussions(6), Self-Organized(K), Many Factors(E), Ever Changing(G), Opportunities(7), Informs the Observer(H), Trust(9), Evolves on Its Own(B), Tight and Loose Couplings(M), Holism(2), Balance(3), Heuristics(8), and Simple Elements(12), have overlaps from seven to three. Emergence(A), Layered Architecture(13), Acts Robustly(C), Performs Openly(I), Sensitive to Small Effects(L), and Humility(1) have only two or one overlap(s). The behaviors and principles with fewer overlaps received less (and __________ perhaps insufficient) attention from McKelvey. * See Chart 40 of Session 1 02/27/2020 and Chart 29 of Session 2 45 See Notes Page Complexity Leadership (5/5) CS Behavior Action Discipline CSE Principle Action Discipline

A B C D E F G H I J 3, 4 1, 2, 4 1 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 10, 11, 12 1, 3, 4, 7,11 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 10, 11, 12 1, 3, 4, 7, 11 1, 8, 11, 12 11 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 8, 10, 11, 12 4, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 11 7, 8, 9 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 6 1, 2, 4 1, 7, 8 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 10, 11, 12 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 10, 11, 12 3, 5, 6, 8, 10, 11, 12 1, 2, 3, 4, 8 2, 4, 8 6, 8, 9, 10, 11 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 1, 3, 4, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 2, 6, 9 6, 7, 9 K L M 02/27/2020 11

12 13 46 Excerpts from The 21 Irrefutable Laws of Leadership* (1/6) Stephen R. Covey: [as the author, Maxwell, said] communicators make the complex simple. (p. xiii) One way to handle takeovers of organizations in trouble (pp. 8-9): Train the staff to improve the level of service to customers Fire the leader (If they were good the organization would not be in trouble.) Leadership is influence nothing more, nothing less. (p. 13) [Disagree: But influence is a good measure of leadership.] __________ * (Maxwell 2007) 02/27/2020 47 Excerpts from The 21 Irrefutable Laws of Leadership (2/6) A widespread misunderstanding is that leading and managing are one and the same. The main difference is that leadership is about influencing people to follow, while management focuses on maintaining systems and processes. (pp. 13-4) [see Charts 6667] Its not the position that makes the leader; its the leader that makes the position. (Stanley Huffty) (p. 15) [Leadership] isnt [about] how far [a leader] advances [him/herself] but [is about] how far [a leader] advance[s] others. (p. 51) The best place [position] for a leader [is] where he or she can serve the best and add the most value to other people. (p. 52) 02/27/2020 48 Excerpts from The 21 Irrefutable Laws of

Leadership (3/6) Trust is the foundation of leadership. (p. 61) [Disagree: Trust is one of the most important basis aspects supporting leadership.] A first-rate [leader] will try to surround himself [or herself] with his [her] equals, or better if possible. (Andre Weil) (p. 84) [General Powells] leadership decisions [are based] as much on intuition [and experience] as on facts. (p. 89) if you arent persuading people to follow, you arent really leading. (p. 95) [Note how Maxwell often states things in a negative fashion.] Who you attract is not determined by what you want. Its determined by who you are. (p. 104) 02/27/2020 49 Excerpts from The 21 Irrefutable Laws of Leadership (4/6) The stronger the relationship and connection between individuals, the more likely the follower will want to help the leader. You develop credibility with people when you connect with them [individually] and show that you genuinely care and want to help them. (pp. 116-7) Leaders are dealers in hope. (Napoleon) When you give people hope, you give them a future. (p. 119) Successful leaders [who connect] are always initiators. Communicate with people because you believe they have value. (p. 119) The leader finds greatness in the group, and he or she helps the members find it in themselves. (p. 119) 02/27/2020 50 Excerpts from The 21 Irrefutable Laws of Leadership (5/6) Which is the most difficult leading up, across, or down? None of the above, leading myself is the toughest. (p. 163) It is the leaders responsibility to initiate momentum and keep it going. (p. 201) Leadership has nothing to do with comfort and everything to do with progress. (p. 208) A leader is the one who climbs the tallest tree, surveys the entire

situation, and yells, wrong jungle! (Stephen Covey) (p. 208) Leaders cant afford to just think inside the box. (p. 209) [Really, there is no box! see Chart 36] 02/27/2020 51 Excerpts from The 21 Irrefutable Laws of Leadership (6/6) Leaders focus [at least in part] on getting players to reach their potential. (p. 215) The difference between a boss and a leader is that a boss says, go. A leader says, lets go. (Gen. Norman Schwarzkopf) (p. 302) After going through these laws, what are your comments? Post something on our discussion board? 02/27/2020 52 The Myth of the Visionary Leader* (1/3) There may be a glaring leadership gap in American culture. A certain image of leadership visionary, charismatic, transformational has become nearly synonymous with ambition. The kind of leaders we idolize may be the last people we really want in charge. [They] have remarkably little to do with how effective that person will be at actually running a city, or a company, or a nation. There is a notion that there are transformational leaders who can create opportunities for change because of the quality of their leadership, essentially by getting out in front of the crowd and crying, follow me, In reality that rarely happens. [Leaders need followers but followers can be leaders at times.] __________ * (Neyfakh 2013) 02/27/2020 53

The Myth of the Visionary Leader (2/3) In place of stereotypical leadership qualities we should be looking to a host of other traits, like the ability to detect opportunity and swiftly act on it. Leaders with vision and charisma are immediately appealing because they make us forget our problems are actually difficult to solve. The craving for big, bold leadership ends up clouding peoples judgment. 21st century Americans need [leaders] [actually like Nelson Mandela] to be able to make decisions, work with others, and wield power in an intelligent, productive way. then work to keep people happy, navigate change, and lay the groundwork for [the large institutions or organizations] future health. 02/27/2020 54 The Myth of the Visionary Leader (3/3) The whole field of leadership development as well as its central premise, that leadership skills can be taught has turned out to be a massive intellectual failure. it might be time for the leadership industry to start teaching people the skills they need to be good followers including how to challenge and take on bad leaders. Bold, charismatic leaders may be what we want, but people capable of running the government are what we actually need. What are your views on whether exemplar leaders need charisma? Post something on our discussion board? 02/27/2020 55 Iceberg: Perfect Picture of Leadership* The most important attributes of leadership are below the surface. Leadership Skills Leadership Character Ask people what character traits they might look for in leaders; they may name attributes like integrity, honesty, and loyalty. These are fine but Persistence is another are inadequate in describing leadership character. (Miller 2013, p. 1) good leadership trait. ______

(Miller 2013, p. 44) * (Miller 2013, pp. 13-14) 02/27/2020 56 The HEART of Leadership* Hunger for Wisdom Expect the Best Accept Responsibility Respond with Courage (Miller 2013, p. 59) If your heart is not right, no one cares about your leadership skills. (Miller 2013, p. ix) Some people see the glass as half-empty; others, half-full. Leaders see the glass as completely full, half liquid and half air. (Miller 2013, p. 48) Articulate the vision for the future. Build relationships with challenging people. Challenge people to grow and change. Mend broken relationships. Confront difficult problems. Make hard or unpopular decisions. Think Others First (The servant leader constantly works to help others win. p. 27) Five strategic ways great leaders SERVE (Miller 2013, p. 32) See the Future Engage and Develop Others Reinvent Continuously ______ Value Results and Relationships Embody * (Miller 2013, p. 111) the Values 02/27/2020 How do you feel now about

leadership vs. management? Post something on our discussion board? 57 See Notes Page Synthesize Possible Paths to the Solution 2. Characterize Your Environment 3. Characterize Your Current Approach 1. Understand CS Behaviors 4. Follow CSE Principles 5. Utilize the Enneagram 8. Possibly Iterate 7. Characterize Your New Approach 6. Apply CASE Methodology 1 Create Climate for Change 2 Architect a Strategy 4 Reward Results 8 Assess, Learn, and Re-Plan (White 2011) (White 2010) (White 2008a) (Knowles, 2002) 02/27/2020 Legend: Segments that are on The Main Path An Alternative Path 3 Target Outcome Spaces 5 Formulate Decision-Making Heuristics 6

Stimulate Natural Processes 7 Develop in Operational Environs Used with permission from The MITRE Corporation, Copyright 2011. 58 Takeaways (1/2) Complex Adaptive Systems Engineering (CASE) Complementary approach (to classical, conventional or traditional SE) that may work better in our most difficult system acquisition, development, and improvement environments But CASE needs more case studies* to help validate this approach; this course will generate additional case studies Systems Engineering Activity (SEA) Profiler Alternative way of viewing, characterizing, sharing, and communicating SE activities in the context of SoS, enterprise, and complex systems Enterprise Systems Engineering (ESE Profiler Way of viewing, characterizing, sharing, and communicating SoS, enterprise, and CS environments _________________ * (White 2010a) (White and Jean 2011) (Gandhi, Gorod, Ireland, Sauser, and White 2013) (Gorod, White, Ireland, Gandhi, and Sauser, 2015) (White 2010a) (Stevens 2008) 02/27/2020 Used with permission from The MITRE Corporation, Copyright 2011. 59 Takeaways (2/2) Understand The creation of the world did not take place once and for all time, but takes place every day. Samuel Beckett

Complexity (Fitzpatrick 2012) Complex Systems Complex Systems Engineering Examine mindsights to Approach serious problems differently Think how one might be more successful Create conditions for Engineering the environment Stimulating self-organization Watch what happens and be prepared to Try other intervention(s) After suitable delays Try applying all these ideas in remainder of this course, e.g., to SoSs and SoSE, enterprises, and ESE, and CS and CSE. Soon lets see some of your comments on our discussion board about this course overview, both Parts I and II. 02/27/2020 60 Updated Syllabus (Sessions 1 and 2 only) Session MainTopic Description 1 Overview - 1 Introduction to complexity, complex Read Chapters 1 and 2 of Course Textbook systems (CSs), Enterprises, and System of Systems (SoSs) Discussion Board 1 (one post and two responses) re: Problem: Failing U.S. Acquisition Programs Find more recent examples to check on how much might have changed. (Refer to Charts 21-23 of Session 1 presentation.) Quiz 1: 1. Which suggested profiler better exemplifies a. systems thinking b. complex behaviors c. SoSE and why?

2. How does "complexity" compare and contrast with "complicated"? 3. In complex systems which is more important, opportunity or risk, and why? Session 2 2 Overview - 2 Introduction to complex systems (CSs) Read Chapter 3 of Course Textbook and Theme engineering (CSE), enterprise systems Articles of INCOSE Insight 11(01) Jan 2008 engineering (ESE), and SoS engineering (SoSE) Discussion Board 2 (one post and two responses) What positive changes in what you view as classical, conventional, or traditional systems engineering methods might result in significantly better results in U.S. Acquisition Programs? (Refer to Charts 18-19 and 34 of Session 2 presentation). Quiz 2: 1. What is the most important of the eight CASE activities and why? 2. Suggest an action you or your team might take to increase anti-fragility in a system with which you are concerned, and provide the rationale. 3. What qualities do you most admire in a leader as opposed to a manager? Session 3 02/27/2020 Assignment: GradedCaseStudyTrack Assignment:GradedOnlineHomeworkTrack Due 61 Reminder By now you should have Read Chapters 1 and 2 of Course Textbook Taken Quiz 1 Participated in Discussion Board 1 02/27/2020 62 Assignments for Session 3 Participate in Discussion Board 2 What positive changes in what you view as classical, conventional, or traditional systems engineering methods might result in significantly better results in U.S. Acquisition Programs?

See Charts 18, 19, and 29 of Session 2 Recall Charts 21-23 of Session 1 and Discussion Board 1 Quiz 2 1. What is the most important of the eight CASE activities and why? 2. Suggest an action you or your team might take to increase anti-fragility in a system with which you are concerned, and provide the rationale. 3. What qualities do you most admire in a leader as opposed to a manager? Read Chapter 3 of Course Textbook Theme articles in INCOSE INSIGHT January 2008 (available Course Website on Canvas) 02/27/2020 63

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