THE RISE OF THE NEW LEFT: WHY? WHY VENEZUELA? An apparently stable two-party democracy Rmulo Betancourt and Generation of 1928 Pact of Punto Fijo (1958) No military threat Awash in petroleum (Venezuela Saudita)
OPEC (1960) PdVSA Positive international profile Socialist International Diplomacy in Central America/1980s SEEDS OF RESENTMENT Socioeconomic inequality
Reliance on state patronage Petroleum as devils excrement Concentration of power and wealth Rural-to-urban migration Partidocracia: Absence of clear programs Closed-list slates
Ageing leadership POLITICAL DECAY Carlos Andrs Prez (CAP) Neoliberal reforms and caracazo Attempted coups 1992 Impeachment 1993 Voter disenchantment
Turnout: 96% (1973) to 60% (1990s) AD + COPEI vote share: 90% (1970s-80s) to 45% (1993) to 11% (1998) Rafael Caldera wins as independent in 1993 THE BOLIVARIAN REVOLUTION Domestic agenda: Strengthening state Redistributing wealth Monopolizing power
Global agenda: Opposing U.S. hegemony Building continental solidarity Becoming leader of developing world Consolidating oil-producing alliances INTERNAL WEAKNESSES Judiciary, rule of law and due process Absence of representative institutionse.g., courts, legislature, unions Concentration of presidential power Chvezs own charisma
Economic inefficiencies NB: defeat in November 07 referendum, victory the following year RECENT ISSUES Leadership: Tightening circle of advisers Accusations of corruption Economic performance: Rationing of water and electricity Attempted price controls Foreign policy:
Threats of war with Colombia Rise of Lula (and Dilma) and Brazil Curtailing opposition: Redistricting for elections of National Assembly Shutdown of RCTV International WHY ELSEWHERE? Juxtaposition of inequality and wealth Organizational basis for mass mobilization Timing (why ca. 2005?): Changing approach to electoral politics (rejection of revolutionary option)
Constraints and moderation resulting from pacts International incentives: Respect for democracy Neoliberal economics and regional integration the same factors that prevent the left from pursuing more radical economic policies are also responsible for the ability of the left to remain in power without provoking antisystemic behavior on the part of opposing political forces.
AND THE FUTURE? the left is back, and it will remain competitive in much of Latin America well into the future Threats and challenges: Corruption scandals Concerns with public safety Break with policy moderation Politicization of military The future of the left in Latin America will largely depend on its ability to strike a balance between the pragmatic need for moderation and the moral imperative to pursue strategies for poverty reduction, redistribution, and development.
44.0 32.1 136 200 221 180 CHANGES IN INEQUALITY 1980-2000 = rising increasing lower-higher skilled gap uneven effects of international trade absence of public policies 2000-2006 = declining (slightly)
reduced lower-higher skilled gap (due to education) government programs (including remittances) 2007-09 unclear impact of global crash still high by world standards QUESTIONS 1. Do these developments mean that radical policies are unnecessary?
2. Or might they provide more opportunity for radical policy (e.g., land reform)? 3. Does moderation mean survival of the leftor the extinction of the left? 4. What impact might come from political change in Cubaor Venezuela?
23.4 g (2 sig figs) 555001.0100 atoms (3 sig figs) 2001.0345mL (5 sig figs) 74.221g (3 sig figs) 3.100mm (3 sig figs) 0.001201kg (3 sig figs) Rules for Calculating with Significant Figures Writing a Lab Report Introduction Background Information What...
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