150610_Non-Res_Lighting_Brownbag_Webinar - BPA.gov

NON-RESIDENTIAL LIGHTING WHY DO WE CARE? 2 RAPID CHANGE Technology Regulation

3 LED SALES RISING 4 HUGE MARKET Large Piece of Target & Achievements Large End-use

5 MOMENTUM SAVINGS 6 7 WE TRACKED THE ENTIRE NONRESIDENTIAL LIGHTING MARKET

8 DISTRIBUTOR SALES DATA 9 CALCULATING TOTAL MARKET SAVINGS Changes in efficacy drive savings Baseline Efficacy (L/W)

Actual Efficacy (L/W) 10 DRAFT MOMENTUM SAVINGS (aMW) 100 90 80 244 aMW 86

81 70 60 52 50 40 34

30 24 0 102 aMW 22 20

10 36 10 1 1 2010 2011

2012 Regional Momentum Savings 2013 2014 BPA Momentum Savings 11 What percentage of your total LED unit sales

would you estimate do not go through utility incentive programs? Small Distributors Medium Distributors Large Distributors Virtually none

"Less than 10%" 10% 10% 10% 20% 30% 30% "in excess of 30%" 99% less than 5%

Barely any 25-30% 50% 50% at least 90% WE LEARNED A LOT ABOUT HOW THE MARKET WORKS 13

DIFFERENT DISTRIBUTOR TYPES Maintenance Repair & Operations Full Line Lighting Only 14 NEW PLAYERS

Ive been in this industry 35 years. Ive never heard of any of these companies. - Manufacturer at Lightfair 2015 15 NEW VALUE CHAIN Lamp Manufacturers Fixture Manufacturers

16 NEW PRODUCT CATEGORIES 17 TLED EMERGENCE 2013 NEW SUPPLY AND DEMAND DYNAMICS

19 WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR PROGRAMS? 20 SALES DATA IS ESSENTIAL TO PROGRAM STRATEGY

21 UNDERSTAND POWER DYNAMICS AMONG MARKET ACTORS 22 WATCH PRICE, PERFORMANCE, AND FEATURES $50 $45

Actu al TLED purchase price will reduce by half from 2014 to 2017 $40 $35 $30 $25 $20 $15

$10 $5 $0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

2018 2019 2020 23 TAILOR STRATEGIES TO MARKET SEGMENTS AND PRODUCT NICHES

24 QUESTIONS? CONTACT Carrie Cobb [email protected] 503-230-4985 26 BACK UP SLIDES

WE INTERVIEWED 20 MANUFACTURERS 18 DISTRIBUTORS 4

REGIONAL LIGHTING EXPERTS 4 LIGHTING PROGRAM MANAGERS 4 PROGRAM STAFF 28

REVIEWED MANUFACTURER FINANCIAL AND INVESTOR REPORTS 29 SURVEY REPRESENTATION 30 SALES DATA, BY STATE 55

% 5% WA 30 % OR MT

10 % ID 31 HID SALES DECLINING 32 HOW MUCH LIGHT DOES THE REGION NEED?

33 CONSTANT LUMENS Same Lumen Demand in Baseline and Actual Case 34 DRAFT REGIONAL MOMENTUM SAVINGS

140 Momentum Savings 120 100 Total Market Savings 80 60 40

Program Savings Above Council Baseline 20 0 2010 2011 2012 2013

2014 Program Savings Below 6th Plan Baseline 6th Plan Baseline Actual Programs' Baseline Net of Programs

35 DRAFT SUMMARY RESULTS 2010 2011 2012 2013

2014 Total Regional Momentum Savings 1.3 24

52 81 86 244 BPA Momentum Savings

0.5 10 22 34 36 102

36